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AARON GLEEMAN

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    Twins' Matt Capps decision looks even worse today than it originally did


    The Twins continue to make irrational decisions around Matt Capps.
    REUTERS/Alex GallardoThe Twins continue to make irrational decisions around Matt Capps.


    By Aaron Gleeman | Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2012
    Shed a tear 'cause I'm missing you
    I'm still all right to smile
    Girl, I think about you every day now
    Was a time when I wasn't sure
    But you set my mind at ease
    There is no doubt you're in my heart now
    Said, woman, take it slow
    It'll work itself out fine
    All we need is just a little patience
    Said, sugar, make it slow
    And we come together fine
    All we need is just a little patience

    Guns 'N Roses, "Patience"

    Back on Dec. 5, when the Twins re-signed Matt Capps, my objection to the move focused on three things.

    One was that he just isn't a closer-caliber pitcher. Two was that $4.75 million is far too high a price, particularly given their payroll constraints this offseason. And three was that in re-signing him, they forfeited a supplemental first-round draft pick that would have been worth more than $1 million while aiding the much-needed rebuilding process.

     

     

    There was a fourth issue, which is that this year's free agent class was as packed with quality veteran relievers as any in history, and for a team that had baseball's worst bullpen last year, there were far better ways to address that weakness for $4.75 million. However, at the time, that was mostly an assumption, as many of those relievers had yet to sign and exactly what the Twins could have gotten instead for that same $4.75 million was purely hypothetical.

    Eight weeks later, the free-agent reliever market has proven to be every bit as buyer-friendly as expected and then some, with quality veterans being forced to settle for modest one-year deals or even minor-league offers. And the Twins spending $4.75 million of their limited payroll space on Capps actually looks even worse now than it did then, as they've watched reliever after reliever come off the board for discount prices while mostly sitting on their hands.

    At the beginning of the offseason, I highlighted 14 veteran relievers who were worth targeting and figured to be reasonably priced.One of them, Frank Francisco, secured a multi-year deal. One of them, Joel Peralta, never actually hit the open market.

    And the other 12 either agreed to one-year contracts for less than Capps – and, in some cases, significantly less -- or still remain unsigned with spring training right around the corner.

    Jonathan Broxton      $4.00 million
    Octavio Dotel         $3.50 million
    Jon Rauch             $3.50 million
    LaTroy Hawkins        $3.00 million
    Takashi Saito         $1.75 million
    George Sherrill       $1.10 million
    Brad Lidge            $1.00 million
    Dan Wheeler           Minor-league deal
    Todd Coffey           Unsigned
    Mike Gonzalez         Unsigned
    Chad Qualls           Unsigned
    Michael Wuertz        Unsigned

    None of those dozen relievers got as much as Capps and, in fact, for the same $4.75 million, the Twins could have signed two, three, or even four of them while also gaining a draft pick. And those are just the relievers I projected as bargains in November.

    It turns out the market was so saturated with quality veterans that Francisco Cordero, who saved 37 games with a 2.45 ERA last season, had to settle for a one-year, $4.5 million deal and a setup role.

    I've never understood the Twins' infatuation with Capps, who cost them Wilson Ramos to get in mid-2009 and $7.15 million to keep for 2010, but the decision to re-sign him for $4.75 million is particularly baffling, given the assortment of other, cheaper options. Not only did they vastly overrate Capps for the third time, they seemingly did so while failing to recognize how flooded the reliever market was. They couldn't wait to re-sign Capps, and that impatience hurt them.

    Cordero signed for less than Capps. Octavio Dotel and Brad Lidge combined to sign for less than Capps. Heck, for that same $4.75 million the Twins gave Capps there's a decent chance they could have built an entire bullpen of similarly valuable veterans like Lidge, Dan Wheeler, Todd Coffey, Chad Qualls and Michael Wuertz.  And that doesn't even factor in the draft pick they forfeited for the privilege of overpaying Capps in what was clearly a buyer's market.

    Maybe the Twins still have a bullpen move up their sleeve, and if they can sign, say, Coffey to a cheap one-year deal or add Wuertz on a minor-league contract, the decision to overpay for a mediocre Capps in a reliever-rich market won't appear quite so bumbling.

    It still won't appear smart, of course, and the entire decision-making process has been flawed to say the least. For some reason that's standard operating procedure when it comes to the Twins and Capps.


    Illustration by Hugh Bennewitz

    minnpost.com/aarongleeman


    Aaron Gleeman is a Senior Baseball Editor at Rotoworld.com, who contributes regularly to NBCSports.com, and blogs, mainly about the Twins, at AaronGleeman.com. He has been featured in Sports Illustrated and is well known for his analysis of Twins players and prospects. Born in St. Paul, he attended Highland Park Senior High School and the University of Minnesota School of Journalism, and now lives in Minnetonka. His posts for MinnPost consist of selections from AaronGleeman.com. Aaron can be reached at aarongleeman@gmail.com.

    Baseball glossary

    Batting Average (AVG) = Hits divided by at-bats

    On-Base Percentage (OBP) = Times on base via hit, walk, or hit by pitch divided by plate appearances

    Slugging Percentage (SLG) = Total bases divided by at-bats

    OPS = On-base percentage plus slugging percentage

    Three-Slash Hitting Line (AVG/OBP/SLG) = A figure such as .275/.350/.500 represents a .275 batting average, .350 on-base percentage, and .500 slugging percentage.

    Isolated Power (IsoP) = Slugging percentage minus batting average

    Isolated Discipline (IsoD) = On-base percentage minus batting average

    Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP) = The percentage of batted balls, excluding home runs, that fall for a hit

    Earned-Run Average (ERA) = Earned runs allowed divided by innings, multiplied by nine.

    Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) = A pitcher's expected earned-run average when only things that they are specifically responsible for and the defense has no control over (strikeouts, walks, homers) are taken into account.

    WHIP = Walks plus hits, divided by innings

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