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AARON GLEEMAN

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    As spring training gears up, here's an early look at how the Twins' roster could shape up

    Another long offseason finally came to an end Sunday, when pitchers and catchers reported to camp. Spring training games begin next week, so it seems like a good time to examine the Twins' roster.

    We're still about seven weeks away from Opening Day, and that time will be filled with talk about players battling for jobs. But while that makes for some nice intrigue, in reality, it looks like 22 of 25 roster spots essentially already have been accounted for, unless the Twins make some last-minute moves.

     

     

    The rotation is set with five 27-and-under starters, because for once the Twins resisted the annual urge to bring in some washed-up veteran to provide "leadership" in the form of a 5.50 ERA. The bullpen also has five spots locked in after the Twins signed Luis Ayala last week to join Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, and Craig Breslow in front of Joe Nathan. Setting aside the fact that a 12-man pitching staff is overkill, if the Twins go with a dozen pitchers that would leave them with two bullpen spots up for grabs:


    SP Scott Baker CL Joe Nathan
    SP Francisco Liriano RH Jesse Crain
    SP Kevin Slowey RH Matt Guerrier
    SP Nick Blackburn RH Luis Ayala
    SP Glen Perkins LH Craig Breslow


    Maybe: Boof Bonser, Philip Humber, Jose Mijares, Bobby Korecky, Jason JonesJose Mijares was called up in mid-September and was the Twins' primary setup man two weeks later, yet the team seems to be leaning toward sending him back to Triple-A. Because he has minor-league options remaining, Mijares can be stashed at Rochester for a while, whereas Philip Humber and Boof Bonser both would need to pass through waivers before a trip to Triple-A. Humber and Bonser being out of options also hurts Bobby Korecky, who's beyond deserving of an extended chance at this point.

    Rule 5 pick Jason Jones will also be in the mix, because the Twins must offer him back to the Yankees if they don't keep him on the 25-man roster. But he projects as a marginal mop-up man and is clearly a long shot. It would have sounded implausible back in September, but right now the odds are probably in favor of Bonser and Humber making the team while Mijares and Korecky head to Triple-A. However, trading Bonser or Humber is possible, and Mijares can probably pitch his way into a job.

    Part of the problem with a 12-man pitching staff is that there simply isn't enough consistent work to go around, but the other issue is that it leaves room for just four bench players. Three of those spots are reserved for the backup catcher, the non-starting half of the third-base platoon, and the guy who draws the short straw in the outfield logjam. All of which leaves room for exactly one position player to actually win a spot on the Opening Day roster during spring training:


    C Joe Mauer C Mike Redmond
    1B Justin Morneau IF Brendan Harris
    2B Alexi Casilla OF Delmon Young
    SS Nick Punto
    3B Brian Buscher
    LF Denard Span
    CF Carlos Gomez
    RF Michael Cuddyer
    DH Jason Kubel


    Maybe: Matt Tolbert, Jason Pridie, Matt Macri, Steven Tolleson

    Matt Tolbert has to be considered the overwhelming favorite for the final bench spot after spending the bulk of last year with the Twins while predictably earning Ron Gardenhire's love as a poor man's Nick Punto. Tolbert is also a switch-hitter who can play just about anywhere defensively, and that versatility is valuable on a four-man bench. Steve Tolleson is similarly versatile, but there's little reason to think that the Twins would choose him over Tolbert, and Matt Macri is superfluous with Brendan Harris around.

    Jason Pridie is probably as ready for the majors as he ever will be and has the skills that many teams value in a reserve, but the odds of the Twins going with six outfielders seem slim considering that one starter will already be on the bench at all times. Third catcher Jose Morales could factor into the bench equation if Joe Mauer has a setback in his recovery from kidney surgery and Alejando Machado may join Tolleson in the fight to unseat Tolbert if his arm strength has returned following shoulder surgery.

    If the Twins were to sign Joe Crede, that would make him the everyday third baseman, push Harris into a full-time bench role, and probably leave Tolbert fighting Brian Buscher for the final bench spot. Short of that or a Delmon Young trade, there may not be much intrigue down in Fort Myers as far as the roster is concerned. But between the crowded outfield and unsettled bullpen picture, there will be plenty to talk about in terms of how that roster is utilized.

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    Illustration by Hugh Bennewitz

    minnpost.com/aarongleeman


    Aaron Gleeman is a Senior Baseball Editor at Rotoworld.com, who contributes regularly to NBCSports.com, and blogs, mainly about the Twins, at AaronGleeman.com. He has been featured in Sports Illustrated and is well known for his analysis of Twins players and prospects. Born in St. Paul, he attended Highland Park Senior High School and the University of Minnesota School of Journalism, and now lives in Minnetonka. His posts for MinnPost consist of selections from AaronGleeman.com. Aaron can be reached at aarongleeman@gmail.com.

    Baseball glossary

    Batting Average (AVG) = Hits divided by at-bats

    On-Base Percentage (OBP) = Times on base via hit, walk, or hit by pitch divided by plate appearances

    Slugging Percentage (SLG) = Total bases divided by at-bats

    OPS = On-base percentage plus slugging percentage

    Three-Slash Hitting Line (AVG/OBP/SLG) = A figure such as .275/.350/.500 represents a .275 batting average, .350 on-base percentage, and .500 slugging percentage.

    Isolated Power (IsoP) = Slugging percentage minus batting average

    Isolated Discipline (IsoD) = On-base percentage minus batting average

    Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP) = The percentage of batted balls, excluding home runs, that fall for a hit

    Earned-Run Average (ERA) = Earned runs allowed divided by innings, multiplied by nine.

    Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) = A pitcher's expected earned-run average when only things that they are specifically responsible for and the defense has no control over (strikeouts, walks, homers) are taken into account.

    WHIP = Walks plus hits, divided by innings

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