SERVING MINNEAPOLIS / ST. PAUL / MINNESOTA
Donate Now Sustaining Member

MinnPost thanks these major sponsors:




Sponsor of
Second Opinion



Our major advertisers


Our in-kind partners


MinnPost thanks these generous donors:

INDIVIDUALS AND FOUNDATI0NS
Blandin Foundation
Otto Bremer Foundation
Bush Foundation
Sage & John Cowles
David & Vicki Cox
Toby & Mae Dayton
Jack & Claire Dempsey
Ethics and Excellence in Journalism Foundation
Sam & Stacey Heins
John S. and James L. Knight Foundation
Joel & Laurie Kramer
Lee Lynch & Terry Saario
Martin & Brown Foundation
The McKnight Foundation
The Minneapolis Foundation
The Saint Paul Foundation
Rebecca & Mark Shavlik

(See all donors here.)

AARON GLEEMAN

  • Switch to Small Text Size
  • Switch to Medium Text Size
  • Switch to Large Text Size
Email Print Submit a Comment

    Mauer's uncertain return poses long-term, not short-term, problem for Twins


    Joe Mauer
    REUTERS/Eric MillerThe Twins face at least the short-term loss of Joe Mauer's hitting, on-base percentage and run-scoring abilities.


    By Aaron Gleeman | Tuesday, March 24, 2009

    After meeting with various doctors about his back injury, Joe Mauer admitted Friday that he's unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, and general manager Bill Smith explained that "there's not a timetable right now to say when he is going to be on the field."

    Being without Mauer for a significant chunk of the year would be a massive blow to the Twins' playoff chances, but if he's able to return after sitting out weeks, rather than months, the team is relatively well-equipped to handle his absence.

    Mike Redmond will take over as the starter behind the plate, with either Jose Morales or Drew Butera (or perhaps both) serving as his backup. Redmond has hit .327/.382/.426 against left-handers over his career, including .350/.398/.439 from 2006 to 2008, so being without Mauer versus southpaws won't be a major downgrade for the Twins' lineup. Mauer posted flukishly big numbers versus lefties last year, but from 2006 to 2008 hit .329/.393/.432 against southpaws to nearly duplicate Redmond's career mark.

     

     

    However, replacing Mauer against right-handers is a much different story. Mauer has hit .326/.417/.493 against righties over his career, including .324/.419/.481 during the past three years. Redmond has hit .273/.329/.332 against righties over his career, including .280/.313/.322 during the past three seasons. The gap from Mauer to Redmond versus righties figures to be about 100 points of on-base percentage and 160 points of slugging percentage, which would obviously cost the Twins a ton of runs.

    To put those numbers into some context, consider that Justin Morneau is a career .281/.348/.498 hitter overall. Take away 100 points of on-base percentage and 160 points of slugging percentage, and you get a near-perfect fit for Juan Castro's career .228/.268/.331 line.

    Morales is a switch-hitter and batted .318/.373/.421 in 475 plate appearances against righties during two seasons at Triple-A, so whatever playing time he gets in place of Redmond should definitely come with a right-hander on the mound.

    As for Butera, he's a right-handed batter with a Castro-like .215/.287/.324 line over 528 trips to the plate at Double-A and zero experience at Triple-A, so he figures to be pretty awful regardless of which hand the opposing pitcher is throwing with, and realistically should be viewed as little more than a defensive replacement. Being without Mauer will cost the Twins a significant number of runs, but determining an exact number is difficult without knowing specifically how Ron Gardenhire plans to replace him.

    For instance, if Redmond starts against all lefties and splits starts versus righties with Morales, the duo is capable of matching and perhaps even slightly bettering the .257/.325/.390 line that MLB catchers as a whole produced last year. In that case, the drop-off from Mauer should be around one run each week. That may not sound like much, but one run per week represents a difference of 35 to 40 runs per season and each 10-run change is typically worth about one win. One run per week adds up in a hurry.

    In other words, even if the Redmond-Morales platoon is used properly and both players perform well in their roles, being without Mauer would likely cost the Twins approximately one win every two months and 3 to 4 wins over the course of an entire season. Using a Redmond-Morales platoon improperly by playing Redmond against most righties would increase the number of runs lost, and pairing Redmond with Butera instead of Morales would magnify the drop-off even further.

    All of which is a long way of saying that being without Mauer for a few weeks would cost runs, but being without Mauer for a few months would cost wins.

    Redmond is among baseball's best backup catchers, and Morales has hit well enough at Triple-A to suggest that he's a capable backup too, so the Twins are as well-equipped to weather the loss of an MVP-caliber backstop as could be expected. Still, Mauer is so much better than the average catcher that, well-equipped or not, his absence is a huge blow.

    Like what you just read? Support high-quality journalism in Minnesota by becoming a member of MinnPost.

    0 Comments:

    E-mail address

    Password

     

    Forgot Password? | Register to Comment

    MinnPost does not permit the use of foul language, personal attacks or the use of language that may be libelous or interpreted as inciting hate or sexual harassment. User comments are reviewed by moderators to ensure that comments meet these standards and adhere to MinnPost's terms of use and privacy policy.

    We intend for this area to be used by our readers as a place for civil, thought-provoking and high-quality public discussion. In order to achieve this, MinnPost requires that all commenters register and post comments with their actual names and place of residence. Register here to comment.


    Illustration by Hugh Bennewitz

    minnpost.com/aarongleeman


    Aaron Gleeman is a Senior Baseball Editor at Rotoworld.com, who contributes regularly to NBCSports.com, and blogs, mainly about the Twins, at AaronGleeman.com. He has been featured in Sports Illustrated and is well known for his analysis of Twins players and prospects. Born in St. Paul, he attended Highland Park Senior High School and the University of Minnesota School of Journalism, and now lives in Minnetonka. His posts for MinnPost consist of selections from AaronGleeman.com. Aaron can be reached at aarongleeman@gmail.com.

    Baseball glossary

    Batting Average (AVG) = Hits divided by at-bats

    On-Base Percentage (OBP) = Times on base via hit, walk, or hit by pitch divided by plate appearances

    Slugging Percentage (SLG) = Total bases divided by at-bats

    OPS = On-base percentage plus slugging percentage

    Three-Slash Hitting Line (AVG/OBP/SLG) = A figure such as .275/.350/.500 represents a .275 batting average, .350 on-base percentage, and .500 slugging percentage.

    Isolated Power (IsoP) = Slugging percentage minus batting average

    Isolated Discipline (IsoD) = On-base percentage minus batting average

    Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP) = The percentage of batted balls, excluding home runs, that fall for a hit

    Earned-Run Average (ERA) = Earned runs allowed divided by innings, multiplied by nine.

    Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) = A pitcher's expected earned-run average when only things that they are specifically responsible for and the defense has no control over (strikeouts, walks, homers) are taken into account.

    WHIP = Walks plus hits, divided by innings

    Recent Posts by Aaron Gleeman