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AARON GLEEMAN

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    The end for the Twins' hopes in a season of missed opportunities and wasted individual performances?

    Michael Cuddyer homered, Justin Morneau and Carlos Gomez each had two hits with an RBI, Scott Baker tossed eight innings of one-run ball, and Joe Nathan closed out a road victory over the Rangers on July 18 as the Twins moved to a season-high three games above .500 at 47-44. Since then, they've gone 9-17, despite averaging nearly 5.5 runs per game, as the pitching staff has imploded to the tune of 6.5 runs per game while allowing double-digit runs eight times.

    During those 26 games, Joe Mauer hit nearly .400 with an OPS over 1.000, Morneau and Jason Kubel both provided a .900 OPS with plenty of power, Denard Span got on base at a .380 clip, and Orlando Cabrera hit safely in all but two games since coming over from the A's. Yet here we are in mid-August and the Twins are in the midst of an awful funk that has seen every starter except Baker get rocked on a nightly basis and the bullpen cough up nearly a run per inning when Nathan or Matt Guerrier aren't in.

     

     

    Detroit and Chicago are mediocre enough that the Twins aren't completely out of the playoff picture yet, but at 56-61 and six games back in the AL Central, it's tough to imagine this team making a serious run down the stretch. Sure, their remaining schedule is favorable, but the Twins just lost four of six home games to the fourth-place Indians and fifth-place Royals and now travel to Texas for a four-game set against the Wild Card-leading Rangers.

    In other words, by this time next week, the Twins' remaining schedule may not even matter. Even now, if the Tigers go just 22-23 down the stretch the Twins would have to go 28-17 just to tie them at 84 wins. And they also have the White Sox to contend with. Memories from 2006 of the Twins making a 10-game deficit vanish in 50 games make it tough for fans to give up on this team, but it's worth noting that the Twins were 68-49 through 117 games that year, compared with 56-61 this season.

    By the middle of August, that team had clearly shown that it was capable of playing very good baseball and, in fact, despite the double-digit deficit, they were on a 94-win pace at this stage of the season. Right now the Twins are on pace for 78 wins and even that looks awfully optimistic given their performance of late. Can the Twins at least make things interesting this year? Sure. Both the Tigers and White Sox are plenty flawed and six games down with 45 left to play is very difficult but hardly impossible.

    But regardless of the mediocre competition, favorable schedule and memories of 2006, if anyone who has watched this team over the past month can still conjure up visions of meaningful late-September games to close out the Metrodome ... well, let's just say that I'm jealous of that optimism. And wouldn't mind a little bit of what they've been smoking. I'd gladly be wrong, but right now this season looks like nothing more than a whole bunch of missed opportunities and wasted individual performances.

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    Aaron Gleeman is a Senior Baseball Editor at Rotoworld.com, who contributes regularly to NBCSports.com, and blogs, mainly about the Twins, at AaronGleeman.com. He has been featured in Sports Illustrated and is well known for his analysis of Twins players and prospects. Born in St. Paul, he attended Highland Park Senior High School and the University of Minnesota School of Journalism, and now lives in Minnetonka. His posts for MinnPost consist of selections from AaronGleeman.com. Aaron can be reached at aarongleeman@gmail.com.

    Baseball glossary

    Batting Average (AVG) = Hits divided by at-bats

    On-Base Percentage (OBP) = Times on base via hit, walk, or hit by pitch divided by plate appearances

    Slugging Percentage (SLG) = Total bases divided by at-bats

    OPS = On-base percentage plus slugging percentage

    Three-Slash Hitting Line (AVG/OBP/SLG) = A figure such as .275/.350/.500 represents a .275 batting average, .350 on-base percentage, and .500 slugging percentage.

    Isolated Power (IsoP) = Slugging percentage minus batting average

    Isolated Discipline (IsoD) = On-base percentage minus batting average

    Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP) = The percentage of batted balls, excluding home runs, that fall for a hit

    Earned-Run Average (ERA) = Earned runs allowed divided by innings, multiplied by nine.

    Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) = A pitcher's expected earned-run average when only things that they are specifically responsible for and the defense has no control over (strikeouts, walks, homers) are taken into account.

    WHIP = Walks plus hits, divided by innings

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