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AARON GLEEMAN

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    Twins get their much-anticipated chance with a four-game Motown showdown

    Been down so long, getting up didn't cross my mind
    I knew there was a better way of life and I was just trying to find
    You don't know what you'll do until you're put under pressure
    Across 110th Street is a helluva a tester
    — Bobby Womack, "Across 110th Street"

    Not much left to say at this point. The weekend went nicely for the Twins, as they won two out of three in Kansas City, losing only to the top pitcher in the league, and the Tigers lost two out of three in Chicago, winning only when the White Sox coughed up a 5-0 lead. With seven games remaining, the Twins trail the Tigers by two games heading into a four-game series in Detroit, which basically means they need to win three of these four matchups to have more than slim playoff odds going into the final weekend:

     

     

    TONIGHT:          
    Nick Blackburn 192 IP 4.2 SO/9 1.9 BB/9 45.4 GB% 4.85 xFIP
    Rick Porcello 159 IP 4.5 SO/9 2.8 BB/9 54.6 GB% 4.56 xFIP
               
    TUESDAY:          
    Brian Duensing 78 IP 5.7 SO/9 3.2 BB/9 45.3 GB% 4.97 xFIP
    Justin Verlander 224 IP 10.3 SO/9 2.4 BB/9 35.6 GB% 3.40 xFIP
               
    WEDNESDAY:          
    Carl Pavano 189 IP 6.5 SO/9 1.7 BB/9 44.5 GB% 4.16 xFIP
    Eddie Bonine 29 IP 4.9 SO/9 3.1 BB/9 55.8 GB% 4.49 xFIP
               
    THURSDAY:          
    Scott Baker 189 IP 7.5 SO/9 2.0 BB/9 33.9 GB% 4.34 xFIP
    Nate Robertson 44 IP 6.8 SO/9 5.8 BB/9 41.8 GB% 5.40 xFIP


    Based on the pitching matchups, each team has an edge in two of the games. Detroit has an edge with Justin Verlander, who's one of the five best pitchers in the league, and Rick Porcello, who's one of the five best rookies in the league. Minnesota has an edge against Eddie Bonine, who's 28 years old and making his ninth career start after posting a 4.10 ERA in 62 starts between Double-A and Triple-A, and Nate Robertson, who's 9-13 with a 6.19 ERA since the beginning of last season.

    There's certainly a lot more room for analysis, but at this point we're essentially talking about a series of four coin flips, with each one weighted somewhere in the range of 50-50, 55-45, or 60-40. A split is the most likely scenario and would leave the Twins needing to sweep the Royals while the Tigers lose at least two of three to the White Sox during the final weekend. However, a 3-1 series win for the Twins would put them in a relative driver's seat and a 4-0 sweep would all but lock up the division title.

    As a wise man once said, "There's one word in America that says it all and that word is youneverknow."

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    minnpost.com/aarongleeman



    Aaron Gleeman is a Senior Baseball Editor at Rotoworld.com, who contributes regularly to NBCSports.com, and blogs, mainly about the Twins, at AaronGleeman.com. He has been featured in Sports Illustrated and is well known for his analysis of Twins players and prospects. Born in St. Paul, he attended Highland Park Senior High School and the University of Minnesota School of Journalism, and now lives in Minnetonka. His posts for MinnPost consist of selections from AaronGleeman.com. Aaron can be reached at aarongleeman@gmail.com.

    Baseball glossary

    Batting Average (AVG) = Hits divided by at-bats

    On-Base Percentage (OBP) = Times on base via hit, walk, or hit by pitch divided by plate appearances

    Slugging Percentage (SLG) = Total bases divided by at-bats

    OPS = On-base percentage plus slugging percentage

    Three-Slash Hitting Line (AVG/OBP/SLG) = A figure such as .275/.350/.500 represents a .275 batting average, .350 on-base percentage, and .500 slugging percentage.

    Isolated Power (IsoP) = Slugging percentage minus batting average

    Isolated Discipline (IsoD) = On-base percentage minus batting average

    Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP) = The percentage of batted balls, excluding home runs, that fall for a hit

    Earned-Run Average (ERA) = Earned runs allowed divided by innings, multiplied by nine.

    Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) = A pitcher's expected earned-run average when only things that they are specifically responsible for and the defense has no control over (strikeouts, walks, homers) are taken into account.

    WHIP = Walks plus hits, divided by innings

    Recent Posts by Aaron Gleeman