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The circ is flat: Pioneer Press again reports minuscule growth

By David Brauer | 04/27/09

[Note: clarification added.]

Hard on the heels of news the Star Tribune's Sunday circulation fell 6.7 percent for the six months ending in March, the Pioneer Press reports a 0.5 percent gain, according to the Audit Bureau of Circulations.

While the Strib's weekday circulation fell a modest 0.7 percent, PiPress Monday-Friday numbers were up 0.3 percent. In the rapidly shrinking world of newspaper circ, the PiPress claims its numbers are fourth-best among the nation's Top 50 papers.

A bit like Bernie Madoff's returns, the PiPress' consistently incremental growth has led many to question its veracity, or at least the discounting needed to keep such levels. [To be clear: I don't believe fraud is involved, and there's zero evidence for that. I later apologized for the fraud interference, see here.]

In January, I mocked the paper's buck-a-year offer for Dakota County subscribers, though the paper has raised single copy prices elsewhere. It would be interesting to know whether overall circ revenue is up or down in St. Paul.

However they're finagling it, the PiPress hit a milestone of sorts with the newest ABC reports: its Sunday circulation is now more than half the Strib's. In 2007, the Minneapolis paper sold 574,000 papers compared to the PiPress' 252,000. Now the numbers are 497,000 to 253,000, respectively.

Here's the PiPress' Sunday trend:

March 2007: 251,843
March 2008: 252,055
March 2009: 253,351

And on weekdays:

March 2007: 191,591
March 2008: 191,768
March 2009: 192,342

Again, I'm hoping to get my mitts on the details later today so will provide more analysis for both papers, and hopefully other numbers statewide.

Comments (8)

Submitted by Jack Sullivan on April 27, 2009 - 11:09am.

Can MinnPost identify three people with knowledge of the ABC auditing process who are among the "many [who] question the veracity" of the PP numbers?

If there are so many people who doubt the numbers that MinnPost's "Madoff" and "finagle" aspersions are fair -- then I am sure MinnPost can name two such knowledgeable people. Can it?

How about one? A single person who understands circulation auditing and who agrees that yes, the PP numbers raise a suspicion of circulation fraud.

If you can, why don't you?

If you can't . . . well, if you can't, then why would MinnPost so strongly imply the Pioneer Press engages in circulation fraud without a legitimate basis for doing so?

Submitted by David Brauer on April 27, 2009 - 11:35am.

Jack - fair point.

I won't identify who's raised suspicions, but I will say it's multiple people at multiple places. I have to leave at that.

*THAT* said, I didn't do enough in this piece to make clear it's unproven (and I don't believe it's fraud). I will add to this piece and note it in a subsequent piece.

Thanks for being a careful reader.

Submitted by Joe Johnson on April 27, 2009 - 12:17pm.

Jack - great point

Maybe we should inquire to Ernst and Young as well. I'm sure they would be interested to know that highly relevant Q1 financial statement information for News Media Group has been falsified. Maybe David is shooting for the most retractions in week, see the fox 9 disaster.

Submitted by David Brauer on April 27, 2009 - 12:27pm.

Joe -

The reason politicians and media types don't apologize is because folks with axes to grind so quickly exploit that.

You know the Fox9 story contained no retractions or corrections. I apologized for not contacting the reporter I wrote about, despite relying on the official corporate statement. But even some who read the apology wrote publicly that it may have been more than necessary - still, I don't mind correcting the record. ... quickly.

In this case, I understand Jack reading the piece the way he did, though I think my original was meant with a wink. Still, as I noted to him, it's a fair reading, and don't want to leave any doubt.

If that leaves me open to your scorn, well, I got that before last week, too. The circumstances don't seem to matter, except to sully the unchallenged facts.

Oh, and by the way, Media News has delisted itself and no longer files SEC statements.

http://www.paidcontent.org/entry/419-medianews-to-go-completely-silent-o...

Submitted by steve cotter on April 27, 2009 - 4:33pm.

Any daily in the country would throw a party with flat numbers or a "miniscule" gain in circulation as the PiPress reported.

Submitted by Jack Sullivan on April 27, 2009 - 4:45pm.

Another explanation for the PP's flat numbers is that marketing, zoned ad sales, and zoned local news have helped it avoid losing circulation.

It's too bad for those of us interested in the business of news in the Twin Cities that MinnPost's supposedly "thoughtful approach" isn't thoughtful or fair-minded enough to at least acknowledge that possibility.

Submitted by John Autey on April 27, 2009 - 5:10pm.

I’m normally loath to comment on stories like this but you David, have through innuendo, insulted many people. The circulation gains by the Pioneer Press can’t possible be from simple hard work could it? Understanding our readership, reporting on stories of relevance to them and producing a good product can’t increase circulation numbers. No. You imply that it’s all due to some accounting shenanigans (fraudulent of otherwise).

Next time you want to do a story on the Pioneer Press gets some real quotes, “I won't identify who's raised suspicions, but I will say it's multiple people at multiple places. I have to leave at that,” doesn’t cut in journalism, as you should well know.

Submitted by Hannah on April 28, 2009 - 1:28pm.

The Pioneer Press recently had -- and maybe still has -- a promotion fore people in Dakota County to subscribe for $1 a yer -- yes, one dollar for a year's subscription. Could you check this out and find out how much of the minuscule growth in circulation can be attributed to virtually giving away the newspaper?