Is MPR helped or hurt by Portable People Meters?

OK, final Portable People Meter post of the day. I think.

Minnesota Public Radio: helped or hurt?

Based on two months of PPM data … it depends.

Again, we’re comparing April/May PPM numbers to the April-May-June 2008 ratings book. (June numbers come out Thursday, when exec are free to talk specific results, but I wanted to set up tomorrow’s news today. For a fuller discussion of the differences between diaries and PPMs, see here.)

The coin of the realm is share — the percentage of radio listeners listening to a specific station. MPR isn’t as dependent on this number as ad-supported stations, but sponsors still care. Because of some data inconsistencies, I’m only using numbers for listeners 12 and older.

KNOW (the news station) saw its all-day share stay flat. Morning drive (6-10 a.m.) was down roughly 10 percent, and afternoon drive (3-7 p.m.) was up by the same amount.

To me, that’s basically statistical noise with only two months of PPM data.

Despite the stability, KNOW fell from fifth to ninth in the market thanks to surging music stations. Did it matter 2009 wasn’t an election year? I’m thinking not, given legislative and recount craziness.

One way to test the thesis: look at The Current (89.3) and Classical (KSJN).

Like most music stations, The Current showed share growth, though at 20 percent, it was below many commercial stations. Morning drive was down 5 percent — interesting, since 89.3 transitioned from Jim Ed Poole and Dale Connolly’s “Morning Show” — but up 10 percent in afternoon drive.

Classical (KSJN) got whacked; down 20 percent all day and 30 percent in evening drive; unusual for a music station. Mornings were up 10 percent, though.

A couple of interesting facets:

♦ With the advent of PPMs, Arbitron now ranks public radio stations together with commercial ones. They were separated because ad buyers traditionally concentrated on for-profit stations, but that’s changed. Fortunately, public radio has always been measured, so we can compare results.

♦ Another PPM change: we’ll now get monthly ratings, not quarterly ones. The significance for public radio? We’ll be able to see the difference between months with pledge drives and months without!

Speculation has always been that public radio loses a third or more of its listeners when it shills; now we’ll know for sure.

May 2009 was a pledge month; April was not. Among listeners 12-plus, KNOW’s and the Current’s May share shrunk roughly 15 percent; Classical was up slightly.

Given that pledge drives only occupy part of the month — really, they do! — the drop during those weeks was probably larger. That said, it’s way too early to form a conclusion, but this will be fun to watch.