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Super-crosstabs! Obama soars, Photo I.D. plunges, Marriage Amendment slips

Out of nowhere — except for Our Vote, Our Future news releases — the Voter I.D. amendment has become a nail-biter. Up by double-digits as recently as Oct. 28, mandatory photo I.D. trails or is tied below 50-percent passage, according to SurveyUSA and Public Policy Polling final November surveys.

Thus, we lead our final edition of "Crosstabs!" with "Photo I.D. - What the Hell Happened?" (I'll get to the presidential race and marriage amendment in a bit.)

Republicans generally like SUSA and Dems PPP, but both have been accurate in recent Minnesota elections. The chart below shows the Photo I.D. plunge — up 12-15 points as late as last week, now tied (SUSA) or actually behind 5 (PPP). 

The simplest story — if you hate the I.D. concept — is that women are higher and nobler beings. After supporting Photo I.D. in September and October, they oppose it now by double digits. End of story, more or less, though women peeling away reduces Photo I.D. support in nearly all subgroups. (I don't list age for PPP because they group differently.)

Photo ID Final Crosstabs

Another succinct way to look at things: The "Vote No Twice" campaign has succeeded brilliantly. (Polling-wise, at least.)

The chart below is from a "Vote No" perspective. The red numbers show how Photo I.D. opposition has trailed the marriage amendment — by as many as 14 points. Now, the toplines march in lockstep.

Still, a couple of subgroups actually hate Photo I.D. more: DFLers and seniors. (See the black numbers.)

This makes some sense. More DFLers realize Photo I.D. will hurt them electorally, but marriage cleaves off some cultural conservatives. Seniors evidence the biggest gap: They like the marriage amendment but now firmly dislike Photo I.D. Maybe all those stories about  rounding up long-lost birth certificates made a dent.

Photo ID analysis

The presidential numbers, simply, have turned great for Obama after what looks like a Star Tribune outlier. Note: there are back-to-back PPP polls Oct. 31-Nov. 1 and Nov. 1-2. SurveyUSA's final Obama margin (+11) is the biggest for them this year, but the lowest was +7 — so really, except for the Minneapolis paper, this has been a stable race.

Presidential poll crosstabs

I should probably make a bigger deal out of PPP having the marriage amendment down 7, but unlike Photo I.D., that Vote No number is an outlier for now.

Like the I.D. amendment, most of the change is explained by women peeling away, which affects all the other groups. Thus, it's no surprise those supporting the amendment (which w0uld elevate a statutory ban on gay marriage to a Constitutional one) are running a gauzy, female-focused ad.

Marriage amendment poll crosstabs

To repeat my disclaimer throughout the election cycle: I am a Vote No Marriage Amendment donor.

Also, subgroups have higher margins of sampling error than the overall result. It's wiser to focus on the trend than the specific number.

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Comments (7)

Good analysis

I hope those trends hold up and we're spared the embarrassment of doubling down on 19th Century values as we move into the 21st Century.

The other interesting thing in the crosstabs

The general +8 advantage for the DFL. If that holds up they'll take the state house and senate along with holding all the statewide offices.

Here's a tip:

Any poll that has Obama leading among men or independents is bogus. Romney will win both categories by double digits.

excuse me?

David sez: "Like the I.D. amendment, most of the change is explained by women peeling away, which affects all the other groups. Thus, it's no surprise those supporting the amendment (which w0uld elevate a statutory ban on gay marriage to a Constitutional one) are running a gauzy, female-focused ad."

There is so much good news in this column that I am going to forgive this slip. Is this like Bic creating a pink "Bic for her"? Its no surprise that they are running gauzy, female-focused ads? In what century were these folks born? What gender were the ad creators? I have not seen the ads in question, but perhaps the not surprising thing is that women voters, after seeing the "gauzy, female-focused ads" that attempt to pander to them, have made haste to peel away and distance themselves, finding the messages of the amendment opposition more intelligent.

Well thank you

Your OPINION on the subject is noted Mr. Tester. That you haven't any actual numbers to back it up will be forgiven as we'll all see your error soon enough, in about 26 hours actually. Happy Election Eve!

Channeling Karl Rove

Kind of reminds me of how just before the 2006 elections, Karl Rove, despite every other poll in the country at the time, predicted the GOP would do great that fall. His internal polls proved it. A couple of weeks later his team got spanked.

Close votes

I expect the vote on the two amendments to be close. The movement in the "Photo ID" has been decidedly to the "no" side. I think they have a superior organization and may well defeat this ridiculous proposal.

The fault lines on the marriage vote are different. I personally am conflicted. I know gay-related measures have fared poorly, so despite what I see as an electoral edge for the gay marriage forces, I think this too will be a nail-biter.

Obama wins Minnesota by 5-8 points and wins the electoral college with about 300 EVs.