Conservative talk radio hosts have criticized the Republican majority for failing to quickly move a right-to-work bill through the Minnesota Legislature.

They've decried the lack of action because they argue people should have the freedom to choose whether to pay union dues or fees.

Yet, when the final gavel falls on the 2012 session, it's highly unlikely that a right-to-work amendment will be headed for the November ballot.

For the Republican majority, there are too many risks and negatives associated with waging a right-to-work fight in 2012.

No. 1:The Wisconsin Effect

Many Minnesotans are aware of the chaos that ensued in their neighboring state after the politicians restricted public-employee bargaining rights. Wisconsin turned into a national political sideshow, which featured round-the-clock protests and Democratic legislators fleeing the state. Now Republican Gov. Scott Walker faces a recall.

The 2011 state government shutdown was more than enough drama for many Minnesotans.

If a right-to-work amendment goes on the November ballot, union members from across the country would stream into Minnesota to join their union brothers and sisters for a pivotal national battle. Protests and rallies would dominate the St. Paul landscape for weeks and Minnesota would once again be in the national media spotlight for partisan gridlock. Many voters are sick of endless conflict and eager to punish those who are causing it.

No. 2: Money drain

Minnesota is home to the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. DFLers who grew up in that party with a strong labor tradition could raise large sums of money to fight the amendment. Large national unions also would spend vast amounts of money in Minnesota, because they couldn't afford to see Minnesota's unions weakened at a time of low union membership in the United States.

If the Republicans move forward with a right-to-work amendment, they'd need to spend a considerable amount of money on campaign ads to persuade Minnesotans to vote for the amendment. By taking that action, they'd be siphoning money away from legislative and congressional races.

No. 3: Business has higher priorities

Proponents contend that right-to-work states are able to create more jobs because those states have better business climates. Think tank studies have produced conflicting results about the actual effects of right-to-work laws. But it's apparent that the Minnesota business community values tax relief more than right-to-work legislation. A majority of business owners are not clamoring for right to work, so Republicans would take very little political risk if they shelved the bill this session.

No. 4: A cluttered ballot

Republicans could end up with two constitutional amendments on the November ballot. There will be an expensive fight over the marriage amendment, which is an attempt to constitutionally ban gay marriage. In addition, Minnesotans likely will be asked whether they support a photo ID requirement for voting.

If the GOP loads up the November ballot with several constitutional amendments, they would simply increase the odds of failure of those amendments. Voter turnouts are typically higher in presidential years, but some of the people who only go to the polls for presidential elections don't bother to vote for every contest or issue on the ballot. If somebody votes for president and skips over all of the constitutional amendments, that lack of action on the amendments translates into no votes.

So it is generally tougher to get amendments passed in presidential election years. If the 2012 ballot is cluttered with three, four or five amendments, the voter dropoff on amendments could be substantial.

No. 5: Back burner issue

Most Minnesotans don't belong to unions. Most business executives and small business owners don't preside over union shops. Most Minnesotans don't care about the right-to-work issue because they don't view themselves as directly affected.

Some of the most ardent supporters of right-to-work laws believe that public employee union members are paid too much. They view DFL office holders as catering to public employee unions.

If taxpayers are upset with the contracts negotiated for public employees, they have the opportunity to replace the public officials responsible for those labor deals. Voters have the power to oust governors, city council members and school board members. A public accountability mechanism already is in place.

No. 6: Constitutional tampering

There are Republicans, Democrats and independents in the state who believe that it should be a rare event when Minnesotans need to amend their state constitution. DFL Gov. Mark Dayton would veto a right-to-work bill, so Republican sponsors chose the amendment route to bypass the governor in 2012.

Minnesotans elected a Democratic governor and a Republican Legislature and they expect them to debate and resolve policy issues.

A constitution is a document that lays out the guiding principles for government. It's crafted to endure for centuries.

The state constitution wasn't designed to be amended every time the legislative and executive branches have a major partisan feud.

House Speaker Kurt Zellers and Senate Majority Leader Dave Senjem are taking political heat from talk radio hosts and listeners for failing to champion a right-to-work amendment.

After tasting what it's like to govern in the majority, the two Republican leaders hope to hold those majorities in the November election. It looks like they're picking their battles and avoiding a labor war over a right-to-work amendment.

Fedor can be reached at lfedor@minnpost.com.