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Census 2010: Can a metro area so sharply divided by income, race and geography continue to thrive on the national stage?

Comparing Minneapolis to St. Paul is part of the local ritual whenever census statistics begin to flow. But the more relevant contrast emerging from last week's big data dump is between the struggling central districts of both cities and the ring of growth and prosperity that surrounds them. That's the real tale of two cities.

The problem isn't that the metro area as a whole fails to stack up against its national competition — places like Denver, Seattle and Portland, often considered MSP's "peer" metro regions. It's that on matters of income, race and geography the metro area's inner districts — most of them in Minneapolis and St. Paul — have begun to more closely resemble troubled places like Cleveland, St. Louis and Milwaukee, places that don't compete nearly as well. The concern is that MSP's weak central districts will become a drag on the region's competitive edge — that we're sliding more toward the Rust Belt than we'd like to admit.


The pattern looks almost scary when you see it on maps generated from the new 2005-2009 American Community Survey. It's the doughnut shape that urban geographers worry so much about. The metro region's central districts (the doughnut hole) are remarkably poorer than their surroundings and appear to be continuing their long population decline, while the doughnut itself is doing fine. (We'll have more precise information when the final 2010 Census numbers begin to trickle out later this week.)

In contrast, Denver, Seattle and Portland have each added big chunks of central-city population in recent decades, and their urban/suburban contrasts on race and income aren't nearly as sharp as ours. Chicago's map, perhaps, shows best what filling in a doughnut hole looks like. One encouraging note: If you take a close-up look at Minneapolis, you can see the very beginnings of a similar trend, with higher-income households staking out a small beachhead along the downtown riverfront.

But that's not yet nearly enough to blunt the overall trend. Concentrations of poverty have spread considerably in the central cities; 22 percent of Minneapolis residents and 20 percent of St. Paul residents now live below the poverty line. That's up 30 percent from a decade ago. And it's a share of poverty that's double the size of Seattle's or Denver's.

What follows are details from the Community Survey gathered around three questions: Are Minneapolis and St. Paul still twins? What feeds the growing gap between city and suburb? And now does the MSP metro area stack up against its national competition?

Still Twins? Minneapolis and St. Paul
• Population: The first thing to notice is that their populations have remained relatively stable, with Minneapolis still hovering below 400,000 and St. Paul still below 300,000 (if the 2005-09 estimates hold true). That's a disappointment for both cities. Minneapolis, once confident that it would climb back above 400,000, suffered the departure of thousands of Mexican immigrants when the economy turned sour, as well as a substantial number of blacks who shifted to the northern suburbs. The city failed also to gain thousands more suburban converts when the housing market tumbled and 50 downtown condo projects were canceled. Both mayors say that the central cities must begin to claim a larger share of upscale metro population growth in order to keep up with the demand for services. But that's a difficult task if concentrations of poverty continue to spread and school systems continue to struggle.

• Income: Both central cities grew markedly poorer over the last decade. Average incomes hover around $46,000 in each city. Adjusted for inflation, that's down by 6.7 percent in Minneapolis and 7.7 percent in St. Paul from a decade earlier. Minneapolis appears to be both richer and poorer than St. Paul, and a bit less settled. In all, more than 25,000 housing units stand empty, with vacancy rates nearly tripling from 10 years earlier.

• Demographics: Age profiles are remarkably similar, with St. Paul tilting slightly more toward female and elderly. Increasingly, Minneapolis is becoming a city of singles, many of them living alone. Its average household size (2.19) is among the lowest in the nation, approaching the levels of singles-dominated places like Manhattan (2.11) and Seattle (2.04).

• Ethnicity: The cities have distinctive ethnic personalities. Minneapolis has nearly twice as many black residents while St. Paul has more than twice as many Asians. Hispanic populations have grown on both sides of the river. Whites continue to constitute about two-thirds of the population of each city, although the white share in Minneapolis appears to have grown slightly over the last decade.

• Immigrants: The foreign-born population, which boomed in the 1990s, remained relatively stable over the last decade as more immigrants chose to live in suburbs. Still, St. Paul has an especially exotic mix of cultures, with nearly a quarter of its children living in homes where English is not spoken.

• Education: Despite the decline in incomes, residents showed gains in educational attainment in both cities. Minneapolis residents are slightly more educated, on average, with 43 percent holding at least a four-year college degree.

Minneapolis vs. St. Paul

 

MINNEAPOLIS

 

ST. PAUL

POPULATION

2005-2009 Estimate

379,499

Down 0.8% from 2000

278,343

Down 3% from 2000

   % White

69.6

Up from 65.1% in 2000

66.6

Down from 67% in 2000

   % Black  

17.0

Down from 18% in 2000

13.2

Up from 11.7% in 2000

   % Asian                  

  5.1

Down from 6.1% in 2000

12.9

Up from 12.4% in 2000

   % Hispanic

  9.5

Up from 7.6% in 2000

  8.9

Up from 7.9% in 2000

   % Under Age 5

  7.3

  8.1

   % Over Age 65

   8.2

   9.8

Median Age

 32.1

31.8

Household Average Size (persons)

   2.19

   2.42

Median Household Income (2009 dollars)

$45,625

Down 6.7% from 1998

$46,026

Down 7.7% from 1998

% Individuals Below Poverty Level

21.5

Up from 16.9% in 2000

19.8

Up from 15.6% in 2000

% Population Renting

48.0

43.7

% Housing Units Vacant

  8.7

Up from 3.7% in 2000

  8.1

Up from 3.1% in 2000

% High School Graduate

87.7

87.4

% Bachelor’s degree or higher

43.3

37.8

% Foreign Born

14.7

15.2

% No English at Home

19.2

23.4

Average commute time

(Minutes)

 21.8

21.5

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Tale of two cities: Central vs. metro
• Population: The metro population, estimated at 3.2 million, appears to have grown only half as fast in the first decade of this century (7.9 percent) than during the go-go '90s (16.9 percent). Virtually all growth has been in the suburbs, with Minneapolis and St. Paul continuing to make up a declining share of all metro residents. Only 20 percent of metro residents now live in the central cities, down from 25 percent in 1990. (Those are 2005-09 estimates with the official figures still to come.)

• Income and race. The sharpest contrasts among metro populations involve income, race and geography. City residents are, on average, 30 percent poorer than metro residents as a whole. Household incomes in Minneapolis and St. Paul average $46,000, while household incomes metrowide exceed $65,000. The disparity stems largely from a relatively few concentrations of poverty that push central city averages lower. Altogether, more than 20 percent of Minneapolis and St. Paul residents live below the poverty line, compared with 8.8 percent of metro residents.

Despite poverty concentrations — largely in north Minneapolis and along stretches of central and east St. Paul — it's important to emphasize that many city neighborhoods are no poorer than many suburban neighborhoods. These observations can be examined on the Google-New York Times interactive map.

Race continues to play a part in the discussion, and there's little in the new data to suggest a reversal of MSP's dubious ranking as one of the most segregated (by race and income) metro areas in the nation. Indeed, if you're black and live in the city, you're almost certain to live in a majority black neighborhood — and those neighborhoods are far more likely to have lower incomes. Take, for example, Census Tract 336 in St. Paul, south of University Avenue between Dale Street and Western Avenue. The area is 76 percent black and has an average household income of $13,000, down by 53 percent in the last 10 years. Use the interactive map to compare that tract to the wealthier, whiter ring that surrounds the city's inner districts.

That's not the whole story on race, however, and perhaps not the most significant one. For the first time, blacks in suburbia may outnumber blacks in the central cities. In 2000, 65 percent of blacks in the metro area lived in Minneapolis or St. Paul. By 2009, the share had dropped to 43 percent, according to survey totals. If those estimates hold up, a large share of African-Americans and East African immigrants have changed their addresses to suburban over the last decade, largely to Brooklyn Center, Brooklyn Park, Richfield and east Bloomington. Indeed, the suburbs appear to have become the settlement choice of immigrants as foreign-born residential numbers remained relatively unchanged in the cities.

• Other demographics. City residents are twice as likely to be renters, and they are younger on average (32) than metro residents as a whole (36). But education levels aren't as different as you might think. Nearly 88 percent of city dwellers are high school graduates, compared to 93 percent metrowide. And Minneapolis residents are more likely to have four-year college degrees than metro residents as a whole.

Central City vs. Metro

 

MINNEAPOLIS-

ST. PAUL

(Central cities combined)

MSP METRO

(13-County Metro Area)

POPULATION

2005-2009 Estimate

657,841

Down 1.8% from 2000

3,202,412

Up 7.8% from 2000

   % White

68.3

Up from 65.9 in 2000

85.9

Down from 87.7 in 2000

   % Black  

15.4

Up from 15.3 in 2000

  7.3

Up from 6.2 in 2000

   % Asian                   

  8.4

Down from 8.8 in 2000

  5.6

Up from 4.7 in 2000

   % Hispanic

  9.2

Up from 7.7 in 2000

  4.6

Up from 3.3 in 2000

   % Under Age 5

  7.6

  7.2

   % Over Age 65

   8.9

 10.1

Median Age

 32.0

35.6

Household Average Size (persons)

   2.28

   2.52

Median Household Income (2009 dollars)

$45,800

Down 7.1% from 1999

$65.109 (2009)

(2000 data unavailable)

% Individuals Below Poverty Level

20.7

Up from 16.2 in 2000

 8.8

(2000 data unavailable)

% Population Renting

42.3

26.4

% Housing Units Vacant

  8.4

Up from 3.4% in 2000

  5.8

Up from 2.8% in 2000

% High School Graduate

87.6

92.5

% Bachelor’s degree or higher

40.8

37.2

% Foreign Born

14.9

 8.8

% No English at Home

19.3

12.1

Average commute time

(Minutes)

 21.7

24.2

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Competing nationally
• Population. In recent decades the metropolitan region has become the prime geographic unit of competition for jobs, prosperity and identity. The 13-county Minneapolis-St. Paul metro region seems likely to hold its place as the nation's 16th largest, just below Seattle and above San Diego. While MSP compares favorably with peers on most Community Survey measures, it grew more slowly than Seattle over the past decade and at only half the rate of Portland and Denver.

• Demographics. MSP is slightly younger than its peer regions and a bit more homogeneous. Whites make up 86 percent of the metro population, slightly higher than in Denver and Seattle where large Hispanic (Denver) and Asian (Seattle) populations make an impact on the ethnic mix. MSP has a considerably larger black population than its peers, but a lower ratio of immigrants. Immigrants make up just 9 percent of the MSP metro compared to 12 percent in Denver and Portland and 15 percent in Seattle.

• Income and education. MSP has a higher median household income than its peers ($65,000) and a lower poverty level (8.8 percent). It also has a greater share of homeowners. Only 26 percent of MSP residents are renters compared to 33 to 37 percent Denver, Portland and Seattle. MSP also has fewer vacant homes (5.8 percent) than its peers. On education, MSP has a slight advantage with greater share of high-school graduates (93 percent) and a comparable share of residents with at least four years of college (37 percent), a percentage matched by Seattle and Denver.

• City/suburb comparisons. This is where MSP falls short and causes reason for concern. The data show that residents of the central cities of Seattle, Portland and Denver aren't much different than residents of their metro areas as a whole. City residents are more likely to be black or Hispanic, but not by much. They are poorer, on average, than residents metrowide, but not by much. And they are only a bit more likely to live below the poverty line.

MSP vs. 'peer city' (Seattle) and 'avoidance city' (Cleveland)

 

SEATTLE

MSP

CLEVELAND

POPULATION

Meto and city trend, 2000-09

Metro: 3.3 million

Up 8.3%

City: 594,000

Up 5.4%

Metro: 3.2 million

Up 7.8%

City: 658,000

Down 1.8%

Metro: 2.1 million

Down 2.1%

City: 439,000

Down 8.2%

% WHITE

80 (Metro)

72 (City)

86 (Metro)

68 (City)

77 (Metro)

41 (City)

% BLACK

  7 (Metro)

  8 (City)

  7 (Metro)

15 (City)

20 (Metro)

50 (City)

% HOMES VACANT

  6 (Metro)

  7 (City)

  6 (Metro)

  8 (City)

11 (Metro)

19 (City)

% BACHELOR’S DEGREE OR HIGHER

37 (Metro)

54 (City)

37 (Metro)

41 (City)

26 (Metro)

14 (City)

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME

(Dollars per Year, rounded to nearest 000)

64,000 (Metro)

59,000 (City)

65,000 (Metro)

46,000 (City)

48,000 (Metro)

28,000 (City)

% BELOW POVERTY LINE

10 (Metro)

12 (City)

  9 (Metro)

21 (City)

14 (Metro)

30 (City)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

MSP, however, shows far sharper contrasts between city dwellers and metro residents as a whole, especially on race and income. Whites, for example, account for 86 percent of the MSP metro population, but only 68 percent of central city residents. Minneapolis and St. Paul households earn, on average, nearly $20,000 less per year than do metro residents as a whole. And they are 2.5 times more likely to live below the poverty line.

By contrast, Seattle households earn only $5,000 less on average than those in the metro area as a whole, and the city's share of those living in poverty is only a fraction greater than the metrowide share.

Indeed, the MSP gap on race, income and geography resembles more closely the stark divisions in cities like Cleveland, St. Louis and Milwaukee. In each of those places, central city household incomes are about $20,000 less than metrowide averages, and poverty is far more likely. Race is an obvious and compounding factor, with blacks far more likely to be concentrated in central districts. In Cleveland, for example, blacks make up half of the city's population but only 20 percent of the metro share, and city households make only 58 percent of the income of metro households as a whole.

For the MSP, then, the overall picture shows a metro area that competes mostly on the strength of its suburbs and in spite of its relatively weak central cities. To sharpen its competitive edge, MSP must strengthen its central cities, either by importing higher income households or improving the lot of existing city dwellers. Or both.

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Comments (13)

Thanks for the article and the link. At the risk of sounding trite, this certainly gives policymakers a lot to ponder as major tax and budget decisions are made in the years ahead. I'll just leave it at that.

Thanks again.

This is good stuff, Steve.

I've never considered myself a "bean-counter," and in the past, paid little or no attention to statistics, but maybe age has made my brain more statistics-friendly. There is, as #1 suggests, a LOT to chew on here for policy makers and others with clout.

To illustrate only one fairly obvious point, given the economy of the past few years, median household income has declined all over the country.

Just for grins, I plotted every census tract area I've lived in since 1997, plus a smattering of census tracts for friends in metro Denver and two other cities in Colorado, plus my son's neighborhood and my own in Minneapolis, and a friend in Oklahoma City. Of the 15 census tracts for which I took notes, median household income has remained the same (0% change) in only one. Median income has gone up in 3 of them – my son's tract in northeast Minneapolis (+6%), a friend in an "old money" suburb of St. Louis (+6%), and another friend who lives in Denver proper (+27%). Eleven other census tracts, including my own, show declines in median household income from 2000 ranging from 6% (twice) to 25% (twice) and one tract with a staggering 30% decline in median income.

If people wonder why there are so many foreclosures, those numbers might provide a clue right there.

This is on a somewhat related topic I recently read a joint US/Canada report on the costs associated with assault. It is extremely numerically high in the US with many dollars spent on the back end. Canada spends more money on the front end because of the nature of their society and has a low number of assaults. The urban legend/truth on assaults scared a great many people away from city neighborhoods and it still continues. Didn't Myron Orfield pulish reports on how if it bleeds it leads?

Myron Orfield is a conniving social engineer who seeks to defy human nature, as well as the founder's principles of liberty and freedom,, by plotting a nefarious vision of a highly manipulated and irrevocably diseased social utopia, founded in nothing more than his closely held racist and Leninist values.

He is a very, very dangerous man.

Back to Steve's article...

Other pertinent questions are: At what point does integrating mixed income populations best use the public resources available to them-shoulder to shoulder, adjoining neighborhoods, across town? At what point does dispersing a poorer population, especially of one ethnicity, actually work against a natural propensity for family and friends to share services such as child care, transport and emergency housing? At what percent of “persons living in poverty” does a neighborhood become destined for failing schools and rampant crime? Which communities optimize their public resources?

BD - Somebody sure woke up on the wrong side of the bed today.

If caring about people and the issues they are living with and then working to address them before a tragedy happens is "defying human nature", well then, put me on the list of those seeking to do that.

I don't find it the least bit "manipulative" to do what helps others to have better, less chaotic lives. Having family that still lives in Norway where much more is spent on the front end, much as in Canada, to get kids, single parents, etc. off to a better start. It's much cheaper than spending on the back end and leads to much less crime and chaos in their society.

I don't find my views to be the least racist. As for being a Leninist, I just call it being a Christian.

There's a lot of great information in these maps, and the analysis is helpful. A couple of thoughts:

I never see any discussion about the impacts that the central cities' large college student populations has on these numbers. These households may appear poor at first blush, but because of small household size, low living expenses, and access to student loans or parental support, their lifestyles aren't really comparable to what most think of as poverty. This will badly skew the numbers in any area where there are high student populations.

The other point I'd quibble with is Steve's selection of what our peer cities are (Denver, Seattle, and Portland). Yes, those cities certainly belong on the list, but it again warps the comparison when you select only the three best performing metro areas in the country over the last decade. Yes, those cities have set the bar, partially because of good planning, but also partially because of the luck of geography or economy -- do you think Minneapolis would be doing better if Google or Microsoft were headquartered here? I'm just arguing for a deeper basket of cities to be included as peers, reflecting a broader range of metro experiences.

Sheila:

I am certain you are a "caring" person and all.

But the bed I woke up in is also the one I made.

Orfield is about not only providing the bed, the pillow and the blankets, but re-distributing and allocating not only me, the very folks who live next door and down the street.

All according to nothing but his handy, "caring" scorecard of race and income.

B D please share some more of your facts. Properly indexed and footnoted and in context so we can investigate your claims

There is a lot of interesting things to chew over in this article. I have been mulling them, myself, for the past several days.

To the point about the "doughnut hole" of income, MSP vs peer metros:

Perhaps there is a qualitative difference that is noticeable with respect to income levels in the inner city between Minneapolis and Seattle and Denver that I am not aware of, having not spent much time in those places. However, a quick glance at the New York Times maps shows me that Seattle and Denver seeming have a similar pattern of income distribution as the Twin Cities. At least the pattern holds for all of them - some areas of desperate poverty in the middle of the city, some close-in wealthy enclaves, broader concentrations of wealth in the suburbs.

Then there is the example of Chicago, which, yes, fills in the doughnut - but only to the extent that the very wealthy have concentrated north of the Loop and along the lakeshore. Having spent a bit of time in Chicago, I can attest that the income (and racial) divisions of the North Side vs the West or South Sides are extremely stark. Is that really an example of the kind of city we want to have?

This is a personal anecdote that I think could possibly be relevant. I live in St. Paul, just north of Summit Ave, with an income that places me well below the median income for my census tract. Looking at the map of St. Paul, I notice that the entire Summit Ave. strip has a median income about equal to much of South Minneapolis. I suppose that myself and other poor students living in the neighborhood (there are a lot of us) drag down the median income of the rest of the area, which (to my eyes, at least) seems pretty damn rich.

But isn't that actually a sign of a HEALTHY neighborhood, where a struggling student can afford to live on the same block as a doctor or lawyer? I would argue that this is a more equitable living arrangement than what exists in Chicago, and better for the metro as a whole. Thoughts?

I understand the comparisons to Seattle and Cleveland.

It seems to me that Washington, D.C. fits the same pattern of having the bulk of the wealth in the suburbs of Virginia and Maryland.

Nathan,

The mixed income neighborhood you describe is cited as a goal by many cities and is called Life Cycle Housing. Ensuring the availability of a variety of dwellings at a variety of price points is meant to encourage students to live next to doctors and is thought to create a strong and stable neighborhood.

I too think an Income Distribution Chart falls short in providing a meaningful analysis of neighborhoods. As you observed, students bring down the average income for a neighborhood, but that does not necessarily mean they are a drain on neighborhood resources. Another example is shown by comparing two families of four; in one instance both adults work full time jobs, in the second only one adult works outside the home. The second family may earn half the income of the first, but is contributing labor hours towards PTA, coaching, outreach affiliated with their religious organization, meals on wheels, Lions Club and so on. Even if the second family provides only ten hours a week of services directly back into their neighborhood, this is the equivalent of $9200 per year in the labor market (at an average wage), far in excess of the state income tax collected from the second job of couple one. Retired persons are another group that traditionally provide many community services whose value is not reflected in income.

Household income is helpful in traditional economic analysis, but only partially relevant in neighborhood economic analysis.

I think it is fascinating to see how relatively integrated we are, even though there's obviously work to be done. I think Minnesotans are better at seeing problems and geographies in a socio-economic context instead of a racial context. Sure, we have disparities in a city where home values drop 75% by crossing a 35W or going north of Lake Street (not to mention the North Side). Yet look at other cities such as New York, Detroit, or Milwaukee. There are definite White, Black, Hispanic and sometimes Asian areas in those cities. The map for our metro is just a mix, and the gradient seems to follow minority vs. non-minority status. Unfortunately, this is largely due to correlation of race and the social determinants of income (education, neighborhood crime, etc) which seems to be the major gap we need to address.