I have a theory that may be put to the test this year in Minnesota's gubernatorial election.

Dating to the founding of our republic 234 years ago, I have long believed that the genius of the American political experience was originally shaped by John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, who, together with Benjamin Franklin, crafted our Declaration of Independence that we celebrate over the Fourth of July holiday.

Adams and Jefferson, our second and third U.S. presidents, also first began to organize what came to be the existence of two broadly based political parties.

Over these many years in various iterations, the center-right coalition of voters generally supported individual rights, free markets and local control, while the center-left backed government containment of the excesses of individuals and markets while addressing the "social safety net" needs of those in most need. Both parties helped to shape the nation's unique form of democratic capitalism.

Preferences may be changing
Traditionally, DFLers have about a 40 percent voter base in Minnesota, Republicans around 30 percent, and 30 percent are independents or refuse to state their political preference. A recent Gallup survey, however, indicates things may be changing as more than four in 10 Americans now describe themselves as conservative, 35 percent moderate, and only 20 percent liberal.

Major-party candidates who win elections, I have observed, must appeal to the middle of the political spectrum with a formula that holds at least 90 percent of their own party's backers, earns support from a majority of independent, nonaligned voters and at least 10 percent of their opposing party's loyalists.

This year, a contest for governor of Minnesota between Republican Tom Emmer and DFLer Mark Dayton — the most likely Aug. 10 primary winner in a three-way contest with the endorsed Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Matt Entenza — would draw the partisan lines more distinctly than ever before.

Emmer, 49, a three-term House member, attorney and GOP endorsed, is defining his candidacy consistent with his record as a legislator. He has voted pro business, pro life, pro gun rights, calling for significant reductions in Minnesota's taxes and spending to pay off the state's projected deficits and position itself for job creation and economic recovery. Emmer supports the state's right to opt out of unwanted federal programs and has opposed most issues on the agenda of those who back civil rights, civil liberties and environmental causes.

Dayton, 63, is a former Perpich administration commissioner who has been elected state auditor and U.S. senator. His record as a senator has demonstrated support for organized labor and government-provided social support programs, including "single payer" health care. He is pro choice, pro environment, pro gay rights and pro gun control. He is calling for at least $4B in additional state income taxes, scaled to those with the greatest ability to pay.

Horner positioned between the two
Endorsed Independence Party candidate Tom Horner, 60, a businessman with strong ties to the Republican Party, is casting himself as between the philosophies of Dayton ("tax the rich") and Emmer ("whack government") as, he says, they each represent the extremes of the two major parties. Horner, who anticipates both spending reductions and tax hikes, is positioning himself as someone in the political middle. He believes he would be better able to define common ground compromises through advancing a comprehensive "government redesign" strategy.

While both Emmer and Dayton will doubtless earn support from the more active members of their respective parties, neither will be able to win the governorship outright without reaching independent, nonaligned voters and at least some members of the opposition party.

Though widely known within the business and public-affairs community, Horner's lack of recognition among most Minnesotans makes his candidacy a long shot that is predicated on, as he says, a 38 percent Election Day plurality not unlike the one created when Jesse Ventura was elected in his "shocked the world" third-party victory in 1998.

We'll know more on Aug. 10 — and the answer will be evident after the polls close on Nov. 2.

Chuck Slocum, a management consultant, is a former state chair of the GOP; he can be reached at Chuck [at] WillistonGroup [dot] com.