Time for an election prediction contest.
File your predictions in the comment thread. C’mon, you’ve been meaning to register, git’er done. Highest number of correct predictions on questions 1-10 wins. In case of a tie, the earlier-posted entry will prevail, so don’t wait for that last round of polling data. The contest deadline is 5 p.m. Monday.
The prize will be your choice of: A) A pretty nice lunch with me, Eric Black, to talk about politics and brag about how brilliant your picks were, or B) two tickets for a performance of the soon-to-open play “Shadowlands” at the Guthrie.
Predict each of the following (a non-answer is a wrong answer). One entry per customer.
1. Who will win the Minnesota U.S. Senate race: Norm Coleman, Al Franken or Dean Barkley.
2. The race for Congress from Minnesota’s Third District: Erik Paulsen or Ashwin Madia.
3. Minnesota’s Sixth District: Michele Bachmann or Elwyn Tinklenberg.
4. Minnesota’s Second District: John Kline or Steve Sarvi.
5. U.S. Senate race, Oregon: incumbent Repub Gordon Smith or Dem Jeff Merkley.
6. U.S. Senate race, Mississippi: incumbent Republican Roger Wicker or Democratic challenger Ronnie Musgrove.
7. U.S. Senate race, North Carolina: incumbent Repub Eliz. Dole or Dem Kay Hagan.
8. U.S. Senate race: Georgia: incumbent Repub Saxby Chambliss or Dem Jim Martin.
9. U.S. Senate race, New Hampshire: incumbent Repub John Sununu or Dem Jeanne Shaheen.
10. U.S. Senate race: Kentucky: incumbent Repub Mitch McConnell or Dem Bruce Lunsford.
1. Coleman
2. Madia
3. Bachman
4. Kline
5. Merkley
6. Wicker
7. Hagan
8. Chambliss
9. Shaheen
10. McConnel
Where is the lunch at? Because that will determine if the tickets are ‘worth’ it. After all, I am only doing this game to help spread the wealth.
I hope that my answers are wrong for the most part, but I don’t feel that the Repbulicans will lose all that much ground in the Senate, especially Mississippi and Georgia (here is to hoping!).
1: Franken
2: Madia
3: Tinklenberg
4: Kline
5: Merkley
6: Wicker
7: Hagan
8: Martin
9: Shaheen
10: McConnell
1. Al Franken.
2. Ashwin Madia.
3. Elwyn Tinklenberg.
4. John Kline.
5. Jeff Merkley.
6. Roger Wicker.
7. Kay Hagan.
8. Saxby Chambliss.
9. Jeanne Shaheen.
10. Mitch McConnell.
1. Al Franken
2. Ashwin Madia
3. Elwyn Tinklenberg
4. John Kline
5. Jeff Merkley
6. Ronnie Musgrove
7. Eliz. Dole
8. Jim Martin
9. Jeanne Shaheen
10. Mitch McConnell
1. Franken
2. Madia (by a very slim margin)
3. Tinklenberg
4. Kline
5. Merkley
6. Wicker
7. Hagan
8. Chambliss
9. Shaheen (Sununu almost has no chance)
10. McConnell
1. Franken
2. Madia
3. Tinklenberg
4. Kline
5. Merkley
6. Musgrove
7. Hagan
8. Chambliss
9. Shaheen
10. McConnell
Because Rosenberg beat me to the punch (wow, the exact same picks?), I change My #7 to Dole.
1. Coleman
2. Madia
3. Tinklenberg
4. Kline
5. Merkley
6. Wicker
7. Hagan
8. Chambliss
9. Shaheen
10. Lunsford
1. Coleman
2. Madia
3. Tinklenberg
4. Cline
5. Merkley
6. Wicker
7. Hagan
8. Martin
9. Sununu
10. McConnel
1. Coleman
2. Paulsen
3. Bachmann
4. Kline
5. Merkley
6. Wicker
7. Hagan
8. Chambliss
9. Shaheen
10. McConnell
1. Coleman
2. Madia
3. Tinklenberg
4. Kline
5. Merkley
6. Wicker
7. Dole
8. Saxby!
9. Shaheen?
10. McConnell
A Democratic Party Sweep on all of ’em.
1 – Franken
2 – Madia
3 – Tink
4 – Sarvi (in the upset special)
5 – Merkley (no upset here; Smith has run an even nastier campaign than Coleman)
6 – Musgrove (even southern rednecks are getting tired of GOPers)
7 – Hagan (she’s done the impossible; make Dole look incompetent)
8 – Martin (even though Chambliss is another expert at KarlRovian tactics)
9 – Shaheen (a blue state that won’t make the Sununu mistake again)
10 – Lunsford (if you think Michigan has lost jobs, you should see what’s happened in the Blue Grass State)
Coleman
Madia
Tinklenberg
Kline
Merkley
Musgrove
Hagen
Martin
Shaheen
Lunsford
1. Coleman
2. Paulsen
3. Tinklenberg.
4. John Kline
5. Jeff Merkley.
6. Roger Wicker
7. Kay Hagan.
8. Dem Jim Martin.
9. Jeanne Shaheen.
10. Mitch McConnell
1. Franken
2. Madia
3. Tinklenberg
4. Kline
5. Merkley
6. Musgrove
7. Hagen
8. Martin
9. Shaheen
10. McConnell
1. Al Franken
2. Ashwin Madia
3. Tinklenberg
4. John Kline
5. Gordon Smith
6. Roger Wicker
7. Kay Hagan
8. Jim Martin
9. Jeanne Shaheen
10. Mitch McConnell
1. Franken
2. Madia
3. Tinklenburg
4. Kline
5. Merkley
6. Wicker
7. Hagan
8. Chambliss
9. Shaheen
10. McConnell
1.Barkley
2.Madia
3.Tinklenberg
4.Kline
5.Merkley
6.Wicker
7.Hagan
8.Martin
9.Shaheen
10.McConnell
“Because Rosenberg beat me to the punch (wow, the exact same picks?), I change My #7 to Dole.”
Yup, lots of potential for overlap here, thus my long-shot Barkley pick.
1. Coleman
2. Madia
3. Tinklenberg
4. Kline
5. Merkley
6. Wicker
7. Hagan
8. Martin
9. Shaheen
10. McConnell
A problem has arisen with this prediction contest that I will try to fix right here.
To my shame and embarrassment, I was unaware of a special situation regarding the Georgia U.S. Senate race that creates a complication. Kudos to Aaron Landry for bringing it to my attention.
Now, in case you were as clueless as I was, I will bring it to your attention, because it’s really pretty interesting.
Georgia is the only state in the union that has this rule for general elections: If the winner does not receive 50 percent of the total vote plus one, the top two finishers compete again in a runoff election four weeks later.
The most recent polling suggests a reasonable possibility of a runoff this year. The race, which was long thought to be a cakewalk for incumbent Repub Sen. Saxby Chambliss over Dem challenger Jim Martin has grown very close. And there is Libertarian candidate, Allen Buckley, who has been polling between two and five percent. It’s definitely not for sure, but this one could be going into extra innings.
Here http://www.ajc.com/services/content/metro/stories/2008/10/27/polinsider.html is an Atlanta Journal-Constitution piece exploring this scenario and the intriguing possibility that we won’t know until Dec. 2 whether the Dems have achieved the goal of a filibuster-proof 60-40 Senate majority. But here’s the problem it creates for the contest:
I asked you to predict the Georgia winner but, because I didn’t know about this wrinkle, I didn’t specify whether I meant the ultimate winner or the person who got the most votes on Nov. 4. A lot of you have already made your predictions without me clarifying this question. So, with Solomonic wisdom (by the way, Solomonic is a very fun word to say out loud, try it) the ruling is that there is a runoff in Georgia (irrespective of who gets the most votes in what we must now call the “first round”) and if a difference in two contestants answers on the Georgia race are the only thing that gives one of them the winning entry, then both will be declared winners and each will have a choice of lunch with me or the theater tickets.
Sorry for any confusion and thanks for playing.
1. Coleman
2. Madia
3. Bachmann
4. Kline
5. Merkley
6. Wicker
7. Hagan
8. Chambliss
9. Shaheen
10. McConnell
1. Who will win the Minnesota U.S. Senate race: Al Franken
2. The race for Congress from Minnesota’s Third District: Ashin Madia
3. Minnesota’s Sixth District: Elwyn Tinklenberg.
4. Minnesota’s Second District: John Kline
5. U.S. Senate race, Oregon: Jeff Merkley.
6. U.S. Senate race, Mississippi: Roger Wicker
7. U.S. Senate race, North Carolina: Kay Hagan.
8. U.S. Senate race: Georgia: Jim Martin in the Runoff (That’s what we are predicting, right?)
9. U.S. Senate race, New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen.
10. U.S. Senate race: Kentucky: Mitch McConnell
KY, GA and MS are the only tough calls. I bet I’ll regret my picks for them. Looks like I got the exact same thing as Rob but I just can’t call MS or KY differently at this point.
Eric, can we change our picks up to the deadline? Beacuse I might do that if we can.
1. Franken
2. Madia
3. Tinklenberg
4. Kline
5. Merkley
6. Wicker
7. Hagan
8. Chamliss
9. Shaheen
10. McConnell
1. Franken
2. Madia
3. Bachmann
4. Sarvi
5. Merkley
6. Wicker
7. Hagen
8. Chambliss
9. Shaheen
10. McConnell
1. Norm Coleman
2. Ashwin Madia
3. Elwyn Tinklenberg
4. John Kline
5. Jeff Merkley
6. Roger Wicker
7. Kay Hagan
8. Saxby Chambliss
9. Jeanne Shaheen
10. Mitch McConnell
1. Coleman
2. Madia
3. Tinklenburg
4. Sarvi
5. Merkley
6. Wicker
7. Hagan
8. Chambliss
9. Sununu
10. Lunsford
1. Who will win the Minnesota U.S. Senate race: Norm Coleman, Al Franken or Dean Barkley.
Franken, with a recount requested by Coleman.
2. The race for Congress from Minnesota’s Third District: Erik Paulsen or Ashwin Madia.
Madia. SurveyUSA seems to be the only one polling in the third, and their numbers are a bit suspect this year in Minnesota.
3. Minnesota’s Sixth District: Michele Bachmann or Elwyn Tinklenberg.
Tinklenberg.
4. Minnesota’s Second District: John Kline or Steve Sarvi.
Kline
5. U.S. Senate race, Oregon: incumbent Repub Gordon Smith or Dem Jeff Merkley.
Merkley.
6. U.S. Senate race, Mississippi: incumbent Republican Roger Wicker or Democratic challenger Ronnie Musgrove.
Wicker.
7. U.S. Senate race, North Carolina: incumbent Repub Eliz. Dole or Dem Kay Hagan.
Hagan.
8. U.S. Senate race: Georgia: incumbent Repub Saxby Chambliss or Dem Jim Martin.
Goes to runoff, with Chambliss at the top on 04-Nov, ultimate win by Chambliss.
9. U.S. Senate race, New Hampshire: incumbent Repub John Sununu or Dem Jeanne Shaheen.
Shaheen.
10. U.S. Senate race: Kentucky: incumbent Repub Mitch McConnell or Dem Bruce Lunsford.
McConnell.
1. Al Franken
2. Ashwin Madia
3. Elwyn Tinklenberg
4. John Kline
5. Jeff Merkley
6. Roger Wicker
7. Kay Hagan
8. Saxby Chambliss
9. Jeanne Shaheen
10. Mitch McConnell