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Coleman v. Franken: Will the ThreeJudges report to the Senate?

The Minnesota Statute on election contests contains a passage (that has so far gone mostly unnoticed) that could provide the ThreeJudges with an interesting option (that has so far gone mostly undiscussed).

The statute in question, Minn. Stat. § 209.12, which outlines the ways and means of a Minnesota election contest involving a congressional election, instructs the ThreeJudgePanel to answer one and only one concrete question: Who got the most votes? This sentence has often been quoted, by Team Franken and by the courts, and has been a barrier to Team Coleman's efforts to get the Contest Panel to consider more ethereal questions, like: Can you really be sure who won an election this close?

The sentence is pretty gol-durn clear. It states:

"When a contest relates to the office of senator or a member of the House of Representatives of the United States, the only question to be decided by the court is which party to the contest received the highest number of votes legally cast at the election and is therefore entitled to receive the certificate of election."

That passage is among the reasons that most close observers of the trial, including Coleman's chief trial advocate Joe Friedberg, believe that Coleman will not get the ruling he wants out of the ThreeJudges. (The Three, by the way, may come back into view any day, not to make a final order, but to indicate which of the remaining disputed ballots they will examine.)

Professor Guy Uriel-Charles, an election law specialist who has followed the case closely, said the ThreeJudges seem to have "taken primary comfort from that very specific language telling them what their job is. Without that language they would be operating in a complete ether. My sense is that they have taken that as very serious guidance as to what they're supposed to do and what evidence is relevant to their mission."

But a couple of sentences down from the sentence quoted above, the same statute tells the judges what to do with other evidence, information and arguments that came up during the trial:

"Evidence on any other points specified in the notice of contest, including but not limited to the question of the right of any person to nomination or office on the ground of deliberate, serious, and material violation of the provisions of the Minnesota Election Law, must be taken and preserved by the judge trying the contest... But the judge shall make no findings or conclusion on those points. After the time for appeal has expired, or in case of an appeal, after the final judicial determination of the contest, upon application of either party to the contest, the court administrator of the district court shall promptly certify and forward the files and records of the proceedings, with all the evidence taken, to the presiding officer of the Senate..."

I'm not a lawyer. Don't even play one on TV. And I have seen or heard nothing to indicate that the judges have focused on this latter passage, let alone whether they plan to do anything with it. I can tell you that the Minnesota Supreme Court, which will almost surely be asked to review what the ThreeJudges decide, took note of the passage and paraphrased it thus:

"Nevertheless, evidence on any other issues specified in the notice of election contest is to be preserved and forwarded to the presiding officer of the Senate."

To the degree that the judges take that language seriously, it seems to give them an opportunity, bordering on a mandate, to give the Senate more than a simple statement of who got the most votes. There is evidence, in the trial record, that different Minnesota counties used different procedures and applied different standards in deciding which absentee ballots to open. I don't know how close Team Coleman came to proving this as a statistical fact, but they convinced me that the millions of votes that were counted included hundreds, perhaps thousands, that were not held to the same high standards that the ThreeJudges have used in deciding what votes to count at this stage.

Team Coleman has argued that this means the count on which the ThreeJudges are relying to decide who got the most votes is tainted and that it is not really possible to know the real count or identify the winner. I have written before that this is not a terrible argument and represents the best hope Coleman has. But there are many problems with it. The ballots that perhaps should not have been counted are mixed in with the rest and cannot be separated. When the ThreeJudges asked Team Coleman what they could do about this problem, Coleman lawyer James Langdon offered two suggestions: either subtract votes based on a statistical estimate to "correct" the count, or order a new election. These are audacious suggestions, without precedent in Minnesota and without any basis in existing Minnesota law. If Uriel-Charles is right about the judges' reliance on the "only question to be decided is which party got the most votes" mandate, they would surely be reluctant to adopt either suggestion. Friedberg, in his recent radio interview, said he hoped to do better with the argument on appeal.

The ThreeJudges may just say no to those suggestions. If they do, perhaps they will discuss their reasons (the statute does instruct them to "make findings of fact and conclusions of law" in support of their order). But, if they have qualms about the imperfections of the final score that the statute requires them to render, the second passage of the statute gives them a suggeston that is both statutorily and constitutionally sound: tell the Senate what the evidence showed on these points.

Article I, Section 5. of the U.S. Constitution states very plainly ("each House shall be the judge of the elections, returns and qualifications of its own members") that it is ultimately up to the Senate who is seated. The Senate has no state statute telling it what it can or can't take into account. No less an authority than Antonin Scalia, back when he was an appellate judge, wrote that the courts had no authority to intrude on the Senate's power to decide who sits.

I'm not sure which side would be helped or hurt if the ThreeJudges handed the existential questions off to the Senate. Franken might see it as a happy reminder to the U.S. Supreme Court (shades of Bush v. Gore) that it has no business in the case. And Democrats, who hold a 58-41 Senate majority, would like their chances of getting Franken seated, once he had that certificate of election. Team Coleman would rather win in court, but as that outcome is unlikely, a report from the judges expressing such qualms might arm the Senate minority for a last stand. They would have to hold the support of 40 of their 41 members. Every Senate watcher I've asked thinks Republican resistence to Franken will collapse if he gets the certificate. But if Senate Repub Leader Mitch McConnell did want to make a stand, Uriel-Charles said that "having something from the three judge panel could be quite helpful. You could see Mitch McConnell waving it around."

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Comments (7)

Readers!...
Let's all bear in mind that after a valid recount of this close election it was Franken that actually won this election. Losing this election was unacceptable to Coleman. He went into denile and now wants the the court to rule whatever way makes him the winner. Instead of stretching and bending voting credentials, Franken should be in his seat in the US Senate, and Coleman should be seeing a phsyciatrist. Coleman's denile is costing our state it's representation in the Senate. Representation in the Senate must be our court's first priority. However close, the candidate with the most votes, after a fair and competent recount, won the election. Inkpahduhtah

Great article, fine analysis & a reminder of the Catch-22 in which Team Coleman finds itself; as you say, Coleman's legal team have offered two bad solutions, one that is unprecidented & probably beyond the scope of any court, most likely even illegal, namely that the court should order a new election with only two candidates. & door #2, using some kind of "sampling" process to create a statistical evaluation to "adjust" the result for "fairness."

I'm not a lawyer either but I do know that in 1999, by a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court upheld the lower courts in "Commerce Department v. US House of Representatives". The decision said while the Census Bureau could use sampling for other purposes, to conduct the census, mentioned in the Constitution as to "enumerate" citizens for drawing Congressional districts, the Bureau could only use "an actual enumeration" & thus banned all statistical adjustments even if they made the count more accurate.

Again, I'm no lawyer but if the federal courts banned using statistical adjustments for the purpose of electing Congress, I doubt they'll accept a statistically adjusted election result to choose a member of Congress

I am no election law expert but am a lawyer. It seems you are reading authority ("a mandate") into the statute that is simply not there. The judges are required to take evidence on properly pled claims not related to who received the most legal votes, but they are specifically instructed to do nothing with it. "But the judge shall make no findings or conclusion on those points." It is passed on to the U. S. Senate in its raw form--exhibits and transcripts--only if a party requests it. The judges have nothing to do with that happening.

Any clue as to what the court is doing? Reviewing ballot information to prepare a list of ballots to be counted? Working on rulings?

Are we hours, days, or weeks from a decision?

A very good and thought-provoking article, Mr. Black.

It is certainly not unique to Minnesota that different voting centers within a state will vary slightly in the extent of the effort they make to ensure that a vote is in full compliance with state law. In fact, if you were to take a survey of every state in the union you would find that Minnesota is the norm – not the exception.

Most of the elections held in these voting centers are regional or local elections– not state or national elections. And circumstances are different in every voting center (population density, etc.). A one-size-fits-all process standard is not very practical, if the only result is negligible differences in the resulting vote tallies – and especially if minor variations in process standards do not create disproportionate harm to one candidate over another. After all, voting centers do not have the luxury of expending extensive periods of time and money to analyze each vote, for it could take months and much added cost to complete each election.

But does this trade-off to tailor process standards to be optimum for each voting center make a difference in very, very close elections?

Possibly.

So in these rare cases of very, very close elections, most states do as Minnesota has done. They permit the expense and time to scrutinize the votes more carefully through such processes as Recounts and Election Contests. This methodology of rare extensive expense and time (vs. extensive expense and time for every election) is a reasonable trade-off.

For a consistently perfect election process is unaffordable and unachievable.

It is reasonable to ensure that there is no disproportionate harm to one candidate over another due to whatever minor process variations there may be between the various voting centers. However, it is difficult to imagine disproportionate harm if all candidates are subjected to the same process variations. One would think candidates should be equally affected.

But in going from one election process to another, there is a claim in the Minnesota Election Contest that one candidate is being harmed more than the other - by supposed stricter process standards being applied during the Contest than during the general election and the Recount. In this case, the harm being claimed is that the change in standards prevents additional ballots from being counted during the Contest that would have been counted during the general election or the Recount.

This sounds reasonable at first glance.

But there doesn’t appear to be any evidence that the Contest standards cause a higher rate of ballot rejections than do the standards that were used during the general election and Recount. There is indeed witness testimony from some county election officials that during the general election and Recount some ballots were accepted that the Contest judges would not have accepted.

But on the other hand, there is offsetting evidence that certain ballots rejected during the general election and Recount is indeed acceptable to the Contest judges. Registration forms that voters mistakenly put in ballot secrecy envelopes were mostly rejected during the general election and Recount. Yet the Contest judges permit them to be counted, because such voter mistakes do not result in violation of Minnesota law.

So in terms of overall rejection rates of ballots, it would appear to be difficult to conclusively answer which standards (general election/Recount or Contest) would cause more ballots to be rejected.

Still, it is a reasonable question.

And as it turns out, there is a way to make an assessment that may determine the answer.

The county officials during the general election and Recount rejected about 10,650 absentee ballots out of about 290,000 that were cast. Additionally, there are 15 newfound ballots - and 413 ballots that were rejected by the campaigns. But county election officials believe this total of 428 ballots should not be rejected and should be acceptable to be counted. So if the Contest judges end up determining that of the about 11,085 available ballots to be counted, exactly 428 absentee ballot envelopes should be accepted and counted - then the Contest standards will end up with exactly the same reject rate of ballots as did the standards used during the general election and the Recount. Since use of either standard will result in the same determination that about 10,650 absentee ballots out of about 290,000 ballots were properly rejected.

So the net result will be that there is no overall difference in the ballot reject rate between the standards used by the Contest judges vs. the standards used during the general election and the Recount - and there is no valid basis for the claim of disproportionate harm.

And if the judges select considerably more than 428 ballots to be counted (as requested by one of the candidates), then the standards used by the Contest judges will be less restrictive than the standards used during the general election and the Contest.

Which, of course, is just the opposite of the current claim.

It is an illogical rationale that is behind the claim that the Contest standards imposed by the judges resulted in thousands of illegal ballots counted during the general election and Recount – and that an acceptable remedy to eliminate the classifying of these thousands of ballots as illegal is to relax the Contest standards to be equivalent to the standards used during the general election and Recount.

The gold standard used to determine the definition of "legal" vs. "illegal" ballots then shifts from the Contest to the general election and the Recount.

But then if a candidate desired to find thousands of ballots to count, there would be no available source. For the only available source of ballots is about 11,085, of which all but 428 have been determined to be properly rejected as "illegal" ballots by the general election and the Recount.

To be consistent in logic with his desired remedy the candidate must change his rationale such that the standards used during the Contest, and also the standards used during the general election and Recount, are both excessively restrictive. That rationale would then be consistent with the need to count a large number of "improperly rejected" ballots.

But with that rationale, the candidate then cannot claim that thousands of “illegal” ballots were improperly counted.