Fun facts to know and tell about MN guv races
Speaking of the upcoming titanic tilt for governor, I mentioned in passing yesterday something that Minnesotans know but that surprises outsiders who view Minnesota as the land of Humphrey and Mondale -- namely that Minnesota has not elected a Dem (or DFL) guv since Rudy Perpich in 1986. (Just to be clear, that'll be 24 years or six guv terms by Election Day 2010.
So, for the fun of it, I did some googling and listing and counting and here's that up with which I came.
During the same 24 years, the DFL has won four of seven U.S. Senate elections (and no, I'm not counting Franken/Coleman, but odds are that the DFL percentage could improve slightly, pretty soon, don't get me started.)
The unhistorically minded might be surprised to know, in addition, that there has NEVER been an era of Dem domination of the guv's office in Minnesota.
Minnesota came into the union in 1858 as solid Republican state, gave its electoral votes to Abe Lincoln in its first two elections, and never voted for a Dem for president until FDR in 1932.
But even after MN became a solid blue state in presidential elections (current nation-leading streak of nine straight), it never translated into domination of the guv's office.
Of the 28 men who have served as governor of Minnesota (yes, all men), just eight have been either Democrats (four) or DFLers (four). But 16 have been Republicans (or Independent Republicans if you recall the period when our R's styled themselves IR's).
That leaves three Farmer-Laborite governors, plus Jesse Ventura of the Independence Party.
If you go by total elections (disregarding that the guv's term used to be two years, then became four years in the 1960s), there have been 64 MN guv elections of which Dems and DFLers combined have won just 13, compared with 46 for Repubs, four for FLers and one for Independence.
The longest stretch of uninterrupted Dem or DFL control of the guv's office was just eight years, which occurred twice, 1971-79, (Wendell Anderson and a little bit of Rudy Perpich) and then 1983-91 (Perpich's two elections). A streak of two straight hardly qualifies as domination.
By contrast the Repubs won 19 straight guv races, spanning 1860 to 1898 and covering 38 years.
None of this disproves that since the D and FL merger of 1944, Minnesota politics has been dominated by DFLers. But not as dominant as our national reputation would suggest and -- even during the decades since D-FL merger -- it has not translated into dominance of the governor's office.
If you start the clock at 1944 when the DFL first put up a candidate for governor, the DFL has won 13 out of 22 U.S. Senate elections, but the Repubs have won 13 guv races compared to just eight for the Dems (plus one for Ventura).
Even if you start the clock at the most advantageous possible moment for the DFL -- 1954 when Orville Freeman became the first DFLer elected, and served for six straight years -- the DFL has still won just eight of the last 16 guv races.
None these statistics are large enough to sustain a great deal of quantitative analysis. A few flukey outcomes -- if Mike Hatch had held his temper for one more week, if the Supreme Court hadn't allowed Arne Carlson's name on the ballot at the last minute in 1990, etc -- may exaggerate the power of the trend.
And we should note that it is not really unusual for blue states to elect red guvs (Massachusetts has been governed by a Repub for 30 of the past 50 years). And the Minnesota case is further complicated by the presence of the only enduring three-party system over recent history. DFLers generally believe that the presence of IP candidates has helped Repubs more than Dems.
But there you are. If you want to look at who all those MN guvs have been, it's right here. If you have an interesting theory about why the DFL performance in Guv races lags its performance in other statewide races, please feel free to share it in the thread. Have a nice weekend.
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Comments (5)
Mr. Black said: "and no, I'm not counting Franken/Coleman, but odds are that the DFL percentage could improve slightly, pretty soon, don't get me started."
Sir, if I may remind you that you stated that the MnSC ruling ref. Franken/Coleman would be in May or June.
Since June ends on Tuesday, are you still as confident?
I would prefer to reschedule a Europe trip until after the results are in. But my wife says it will not be necessary because you have great credibility with her.
So - what think?
Thanks Larry. I'm pretty worried about the June 30 expiration of my prediction. But my advice (not that you asked, and I'm not a licensed couples counselor) is to defer to your wife who needs you to go to Europe.
Some countries in that continent have internet connections, so you can still keep an eye on things.
News this Saturday morning (heard it on KARE11) suggests to me that it will still be a Republican in the Mn Governor post - Jim Ramstad is considering a run for the office. Mr. Ramstad is not as stridently conservative as Mr. Pawlenty has become, and he reached across the isle, working with Senator Wellstone on mental health care issues. Bona fides on fiscal restraint won't hurt him, so Mr. Ramstad would be VERY hard for any DFL candidate to beat, i speculate
Thank you, Mr. Black. I am off to Europe at the end of next week.
My last post then, on the Coleman/Franken MnSC Appeal:
If a minor level of disparate acceptance of absentee ballots is deemed to be random throughout the State, then both candidates of a close election are essentially equally affected and there is little or no net effect in determining the winner.
If a minor level of disparate acceptance of absentee ballots is considered to probably be biased in favor of one candidate over another, then there is no way that analyzing the envelopes of the absentee ballots can quantify which candidate might be beneficially affected.
And that is because trying to link an absentee ballot voter bias to any specific voting center cannot be accomplished. For even though a bias of over-all voter preference on Election Day was easily established, that voter bias was revealed through a vote-count that consisted of about 90% Election Day votes and 10% absentee ballot votes. The two types of votes were mixed together during the count and were indistinguishable afterwards.
So there is no way of knowing exactly what the voter bias would be if only the absentee ballots are considered. It is quite possible (maybe even probable) that a voting center that tended to favor Coleman during Election Day did not favor him when considering only the absentee ballot votes that were counted on Election Day. After all, the Democrats did put on an impressive campaign with regard to absentee ballot voters.
To-date, results from the Recount and the Contest suggest that absentee ballots voters tended to favor Franken, and Election Day voters tended to favor Coleman. However, the data sample (about 1300 counted absentee ballots) is too small (of the statewide 280,000 accepted absentee ballots) to be conclusively considered as indicative of a statewide trend.
In any event, other than the exclusive small samples counted during the Recount and Contest, there is no voting center data to determine whom absentee ballot voters preferred in each voting center. As such, a specific candidate that benefits from absentee voter bias at a specific voting center cannot be ascertained from the votes that were counted on Election Day.
But even if we somehow magically knew such a bias existed in favor of a specific candidate, how would we then be able to determine that the magnitude of the bias would be sufficient to establish an advantage of at least 312 votes for the candidate favored by the bias? This is made even more impossible when recognizing that we do not even know if a hypothesized magnitude of wrongfully accepted ballots is very small or is large.
Simply stated, there may be evidence of disparate treatment of absentee ballots among the various voting centers, but no physical evidence has been introduced that reveals there is a resulting consequence to voters. We just don’t know if the effect is negligible or is large. Or even if large, could one candidate then benefit at the expense of the other? If so, which one?
This lack of physical evidence is the elephant in the courtroom of the MnSC.
The only way Jim Ramstad can win the governor's race is if he becomes a Democrat. He is NO WHERE NEAR conservative enough to get endorsement by what is left of the Republican party in this state, which only wants people who can speak in tongues and want to dismantle everything but the roads and the JOBZ program. I suppose he could run in the primary, but that means a Republican candidate will be around for three months before that with lots of money and volunteers. And that would also mean others would step up for the primary, too, probably splitting the alternative vote enough to let the endorsed candidate win.