IP'er Bob Anderson may run again for Bachmann seat
Bob Anderson, who received 10 percent of the vote in 2008 as the Independence Party candidate for Congress from the 6th District, may make another run in 2010. He announced his thinking in this blog entry on his campaign website.
If Anderson does run, that will further complicate an already complicated picture. To review.
Michele Bachmann, the two-term incumbent, may be the Repub whom Minnesota Dems would most like to beat. And many Dems believe that Anderson's presence on the ticket divided the anti-Bachmann vote and prevented Dem nominee Elwyn Tinklenberg from winning in '08 even after Bachmann's late-in-the-campaign remarks about Obama being "anti-American" caused a flood of new money to Tinklenberg.
Tinklenberg actually was endorsed in '08 by both the Dems and the IP. But Minnesota law prohibits a candidate from appearing on the ballot representing more than one party. So Anderson, a political unknown, ran in the IP primary and secured the IP ballot position.
Tinklenberg lost by just three percentage points. Many Dems figure that Anderson cost Tinklenberg the race. Tinklenberg ended the race with a lot of leftover campaign funds and was presumed to be the frontrunner for the DFL nomination for the same race in 2010. Tinklenberg gave a large portion of those leftover funds to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and raised very little money so far in 2009, which has reinforced doubts that some Dems have developed about his future candidacy. He has hired an experienced national campaign manager and recently said that if he doesn't receive the Dem endorsement, he would run in the primary.
State Sen. Tarryl Clark of St. Cloud is also planning to run for the Dem endorsement, although she has not publicly announced. Clark would be a serious contender, probably the front-runner for the endorsement. She hasn't said whether she will abide by the endorsement process.
Dr. Maureen Reed of Stillwater has announced her candidacy for the seat and said she will seek the endorsement of both the Dems and the IP, as Tinklenberg did last time. Reed's only previous candidacy was for lieutenant gov. on the 2006 IP ticket. But she has filed her papers as a Dem for 2010. Reed did post impressive fund-raising numbers for the first quarter of 2009. Reed has been unwilling to say whether she will abide by the DFL endorsement process.
Minnesota law hasn't changed. So it's possible that the IP could endorse Tinklenberg or Reed, but neither of them could get on the ballot as the IP candidate if they sought the DFL nomination in a primary. If Anderson was the only IP-er who filed in the IP primary, he would presumably again ahve the IP line on the ballot.
Bachmann has been rumored to be thinking about a run for governor, but has pooh poohed that talk and is presumed to be a candidate for reelection.
More like this
- IP bans cross-endorsement (with implications for Bachmann race?)
- Update: Tarryl Clark will run for Congress in Bachmann's district
- Tarryl Clark on endorsement, abortion and her Republican past
- Update: Tinklenberg withdraws in 6th District, saying he doesn't want intraparty fight against Bachmann
- Tinklenberg vows to go to Dem primary if necessary to get another crack at Bachmann
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Comments (2)
Run Bob Run!
Whether Bob Anderson was a "spoiler" throwing the race to Bachmann is really an "unknowable unknown," to paraphrase Don Rumsfeld.
We don't know who voted for Anderson and why, but 2 out of 3 Anderson voters would have had to have voted for Tinklenberg in a two-way race to have given him a victory.
Even in a two-way race it would be very challenging for a Democrat to win in the 6th District, where both Al Gore and John Kerry got just 42% of the vote and Barack Obama could do no better than 45% in the best election year for Democrats in a very, very long time.
The numbers in the 6th Congressional District are remarkable stable. In the 2008 primary election, Bachmann got 47.2% of the overall vote and in the general election she got 46.4% -- a shift of less than one percentage point. Similarly, Tinklenberg got 43.1% of the total vote in the primary and 43.4% in the general election -- a shift of less than one-third of a percentage point.
Data and additional analysis at http://www.immelman.us/news/how-to-beat-bachmann/