What if moderate Minnesotans start listening to Tom Horner?
MinnPost/Jana Freiband
Tom Horner
Does likely Independence Party nominee for guv Tom Horner have a chance to turn the 2010 race into a three-way?
A few (grim) facts (from the IP/Horner perspective) to begin with:
Horner, a long-time Republican, won the Independence Party endorsement for guv Saturday with a soild first-ballot endorsement. He is not yet the nominee, as two of his endorsement foes plan to run in the August primary. We don't have any real experience with seriously contested IP primaries, nor do we know whether this will become one. When I spoke to Horner last night, he said he couldn't take the primary for granted, especially given the fact the Minnesota Repubs don't have a serious primary contest. A small number of Republicans looking to eliminate him from the November ballot might be able to make what Horner called "mischief."
The only recent public poll that matched Horner against his likeliest Dem and Repub opponents, which I wrote about in greater detail over the weekend, showed him a distant third with between 9 and 10 percent of the vote.
The Independence Party has suffered a sharp, steady drop in its impact over the past three elections, from Jesse Ventura's winning percentage of 37 percent, to Tim Penny's third-place 16.2 percent in 2002, to Peter Hutchinson's distant third with 6.4 percent.
Personally, I believe that if Horner can raise enough money, gets a significant hearing from the electorate and runs a smart race, he will greatly exceed both Hutchinson's poor showing from the last round and his current standing in the SurveyUSA poll.
To get past the level that Penny achieved, he will have to overcome the "wasted vote" syndrome that plagues all third-party candidacies. That's a tall order. Republicans are remarkably good at closing ranks around their nominees. Many DFLers have developed an attitude of solid anger against IP candidates who, they believe, have cost them the recent guv elections. Given the stakes in this election, which almost couldn't be higher, I don't believe many voters will be in the mood for a protest vote. To get above 15-20 percent, Horner will have to convince Minnesotans that he has a serious chance to win.
But if Horner can get Minnesotans to buy into the frame he wants to put around the race — and that's a big "if" — I believe he can become a serious factor.
What is that frame? It goes like this: Minnesotans have three choices for governor: Tom Emmer, a right-wing ideologue who thinks he can lop 20-30 percent off the current size and cost of state government and who will continue the current executive legislative stalemate as Minnesotans see the starvation or elimination of programs they really do care about; Mark Dayton/Matt Entenza/Margaret Anderson Kelliher, a liberal who will be too quick to hit the new taxes button and will beholden to the same DFL interest group that make sensible progress hard in key areas; or Horner, a smart moderate who be able to deal with both parties in the Legislature, who will identify and embrace the best ideas from both sides, who will not be in thrall to either the no-new-taxes or the too-much-new-taxes mentalities.
For the record, Emmer has indeed ruled out any new taxes. The three DFLers have all said new taxes will be necessary to balance the budget, and Mark Dayton has made "tax the rich" his slogan, but all of the DFLers do say that spending reductions will be part of the balance. Horner says they have not been very specific about where/how they will cut spending.
In the SurveyUSA poll, Minnesotans described their ideological orientation this way:
- Conservative: 34 percent
- Moderate: 42
- Liberal: 13
You don't want to take that too literally, especially given the mushiness of those terms. But, personally, I do believe that there is a potential plurality of Minnesotans who could decide that Emmer is too far right for them, the DFL nominee is too far left, and that they wish they had a choice in the middle. Horner will obviously try to be that choice.
Because of Dayton's no-apologies rhetoric on taxes, I suspect that Horner would like to see him as the DFL nominee. If his opponents are Emmer and Anderson Kelliher, he told me last night, he will benefit from the current public disregard for the Legislature as an institution. Horner, one of the founder/owners of a successful public affairs firm (Himle-Horner), will also seek to portray himself as the businessman in the race (although the nature of Himle-Horner's work isn't exactly the epitome of the private sector).
As for the downward trajectory of the IP showings over the past three races, Horner said Hutchinson in 2006 had to run against an incumbent (which he, Horner, does not) and two candidates (Tim Pawlenty and Mike Hatch) who excited such deep antipathy within the opposition party that the "waste vote" logic was especially powerful.
Horner attributed Penny's third-place showing to the declining Ventura popularity during the second half of his term, and the emotional/political chaos engendered by the Wellstone plane crash. But the fact remains that the only successful IP candidate was characterized by Ventura's outrageous ("refreshingly candid") personality and pre-existing celebrity. On the personality spectrum, Horner is a lot closer to Peter Hutchinson than Jesse Ventura.
"I'm not like Jesse Ventura," Horner laughed last night. "I would never argue that I am. But we do have the potential for Democratic and Republican candidates who are 30-percent candidates. Now I've got to take advantage of the opportunity. I have to raise the resources to let Minnesotans know that there is an alternative. I've got to make clear that I'm someone who is gonna make the hard choices, I'm gonna give political cover to others who will, and if that means I'm going to be a one-term governor who was able to get Minnesota moving again, I'm OK with that."
Horner's first radio ad will go up tomorrow. A press release says the ad buy (including Internet advertising, which will include ads on MinnPost) will cost about $30,000 a week. The ad, which is already available online, starts with a woman reading a faux nursery rhyme:
"Mr. Tom Horner sat in a corner, watching the Dems and Repubs
"And thought: 'With all of this fighting, it’s the people they're slighting.
"Can’t they just take off their gloves.'"
It ends with Horner voicing this motto: "Stop arguing about who’s right, and start doing what’s right for Minnesota."
Full audio here.
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Comments (45)
There is a big hole in the middle, at least a perception of a big hole in the middle that may create opportunities. We shall see.
I'm aghast at the thought of Governor Tom Emmer and leary, at best, of Gov. MAK, if only because I don't trust the DFL. So, Horner? If forced to vote today, I'd have to go with MAK if only to prevent Emmer's election.
It is inaccurate for the media, including MinnPost, to report as if it was a fact that Magaret Anderson Kelliher is too far left. How do you define "too far left"? Is Mondale, "too far left"?
Without even knowing much about Horner, you have decided to vote for a candidate you don't even like. Why not reserve judgement until after the Primary. MAK not be on the ballot in Nov.
I don't understand people who think that Margaret Anderson-Kelliher is so "liberal." A farm kid, 4-Her from Mankato. That isn't exactly the hotbed of liberal thinking. During her tenure in the Legislature I haven't heard her come up with anything but modest proposals to get some revenue to fix the disaster caused by Governor-in-Exile Tim Pawlenty. I don't know what has happened to this state that funding schools and taking care of the poor and elderly is somehow some radical idea.
As for Horner, he's just the second "no new taxes" Republican in the race. Four years of Horner would just be four years of a polite Emmer.
I think DD has it right. There is a good chance MAK will not survive the primary. I think as more Dems get to know both MAK and Horner, they will realize MAK is not electable in the general. And, isn't it possible since IR's don't have a horse in the priomary, they may cross over and vote for Dayton?
Note to Jim Scheibel: Walter Mondale is no longer relevant in Minnesota.
I think that there is plenty of space between the GOP and the DFL candidates. Mr Horner has an opportunity to occupy that space. I don't think either party should short Mr. Horner.
If the DFL had chosen Rybak I would have voted DFL. As such I could be persuaded to vote for Mr Horner if he does a good job in highlighting the differences between him and the other two candidates.
He would of course get extra points for not pandering and for being truthful about what he feels needs to be done about the budget cuts and or revenue.
Horner has NOT taken a no new taxes pledge. Get your facts correct, Jer
Horner has two HUGE deficits, neither of which include financial backing or organization. 1) He is FOR very little except he is anti-squabble. He only seems to be running on "I'm not arguing." 2) Even more significantly, and most unchangeable, is his voice. He does not sound like a governor. Very subjective, but if you hear him speak, you may very well come off with the same impression.
To paraphrase a line from one of my favorite movies; "Ah, I love the smell of desperation in the primary, it smells like...victory".
I agree with Richard Schulze. 1) the DFL should have gone with Ryback. 2) Horner has an opportunity, albeit something of a longshot, to grab the middle.
For me, Emmer is out of his league; for one thing, most of his criticisms of government seem to be aimed at federal spending - which is certainly a fine position to take, but doesn't have a whole lot to do with being Governor.
A retiree who moved here a year ago from a Rocky Mountain state with VERY low taxes by Minnesota standards, I'm going to be a more-than-usually interested voter.
I tend to lean left philosophically, which ought to put me firmly in the DFL camp, but I'm also a firm believer in "There's no free lunch...," so ways have to be found to pay for whatever programs are put in place, and my income taxes in Minnesota are already three times what they were in my former state of residence – for exactly the same income – so the prospect of even higher taxes is, shall we say, less than appealing. I'd lean toward MAK just because I'd like to see a woman running the state, but I can't get very enthused yet because it's too early for program specifics on the part of all the candidates to be widespread.
That ought to make Tom Emmer's "no tax increases" pledge appealing, but there are so many aspects of right-wing Republican ideology that I find personally loathsome that I can't go there, though in years past, I've voted for moderate Republicans. Alas, moderate Republicans don't really have a political home any more, which doesn't speak well of the ideological hardening of both DFL and Republican arteries.
Mr. Horner is going to have to be VERY persuasive to get me to consider him seriously. As Eric noted, even to a newbie like me, this seems like a pretty high-stakes election, and I've never voted for an independent candidate in the past precisely because of that "wasted vote" syndrome. So far, at least, I've not read or heard anything that makes me feel compelled to dismiss the "wasted vote" idea.
If Dayton wins the primary, I'm voting for Horner.
@DD
Horner didn't sign the No New Taxes pledge, but he has said he essentially will not raise taxes. Same difference. I'll get my semantics straight next time so you won't have to be both a Republican and IP apologist.
A couple of points:
1. Jesse probably eliminated the IP as a serious candidate for governor. After his election it is much less likely that a significant number of people will make protest votes; 'be careful what you wish for -- you might get it'.
2. 'Liberal' does not equal 'DFL' to the same extent that Conservative equals 'GOP' today as a self identification.
So, that "13 percent Liberal" number is only the left wing of the DFL, while the "Conservative: 34 percent" number is the GOP hard core that Emmer is restricting his support to.
I would predict that the majority of the 'moderate' voters will end up DFL, unless you believe that the DFL really represents only 13% of Minnesota voters.
Literal answer:
"if moderate Minnesotans start listening to Tom Horner" they'll hear a Republican.
It certainly is good to have Erick Black back so we get some fairly sophisticated political analysis. I hope the DFL candidates talk about what Emmer and the Republican platform really stand for. That ought to drive every voter except the hard core I-hate-government types who don't want to pay taxes but demand government services when confronted with everything from potholes to terrorists to either Horner or the DFL. Unfortunately for liberals like myself, "outing" Emmer and crew would help Horner.
A few responses:
Please get your facts straight before citing my positions, Jeremy. I have not taken a no tax pledge and, in fact, I have made it very clear that MN will need new revenue to solve the budget problems the new governor will inherit. But more than just tax increases, we need comprehensive tax reform -- we can't keep bouncing from crisis to crisis because the underlying, structural problems -- on both the tax and spending sides -- are ignored. The next four years will take the kind of politically tough choices that both Democrats and Republicans have ignored for the entire decade (remember, whatever you want to say about Ventura, the last budget he proposed was balanced honestly and with structural reform -- it was the Dems and Repubs who knocked it down and started us on a 10-year path of job and economic growth that has lagged the nation in good years and in bad).
And, much as I admire Arvonne Fraser, her political analysis on this point isn't accurate. MN never has elected someone as extreme as Tom Emmer, from the right or the left. Just ask John Marty. And like Marty, if I weren't in the race, Emmer is a 37% candidate, just like Marty in 1994. With me in the race, Emmer is a 30% candidate. There are a lot of votes for me to win on the GOP side because there will be a lot available. GOP vote totals have been sliding for years, masked only by Pawlenty's 2006 win. They have lost the Legislature, a congressional seat and two Senate elections since 2006 -- that's hardly a party that can afford to put up a narrow ideologue and expect to grow.
If I win my share of Dems who are dissatisfied with their candidate -- and I will -- the race comes down to the Democrat and me competing for the votes of independents. I will win that race.
I think Minnesota is ready to take on the heavy lifting and elect a governor who is committed to making the tough choices even if it means I'm a one-term governor.
According to this report on KSTP-TV (Ch 5), the IP's endorsed candidate for governor is named TIM Horner: http://kstp.com/news/stories/S1550905.shtml?cat=1
I personally am never voting again for anyone named Tim.
@Tom Horner
OK, what did you say at your announcement about taxes, because I heard you say you weren't going to raise taxes. And I watched it all. I'm a former newspaper reporter, watched your announcement and what I remember you saying is you wouldn't raise taxes. As a flack, you should know that message isn't very effective if I misunderstood you. In fact, it's awful. So I'll try to get my facts right if you can state them in a clearer, easy to understand manner.
And you'll need more than a messasge to win votes. Your IP is next to nothing in organization and organizational skills. I can put 50 people on the street for a GOTV in my district for every one you can. You're running to win the primary of a party that essentially doesn't exist. They didn't even have caucuses in my district. You should know enough about party operations to know you are running on the say so of editorial boards and I wouldn't bet an election for dog catcher on that.
If Tom Emmer can connect with people directly, he's formidable as a populist regardless of his ideologies. Minnesota voters tend to be more sophisticated so we'll see how that plays out. I just wouldn't be too quick to dismiss him as strictly a "right-wing ideologue".
The Dayton "Tax the Rich" solution as the only one to solve our states woes is so 2004 as to make one political wonk quip, "I thought that shipped sailed half a decade ago and sank?" Regressive taxation is an issue, but not the only one facing the state or the nation.
Kelliher is a compromiser by trade and I'm not sure you can call someone who advocates for deep budget cuts as parts of a budget solution or who incorporated 80% of Pawlenty's unallotments, as a "Tax and Spend Liberal".
Entenza will spend money and can tailor his message as the campaign develops, but I'm still not sure he connects with people in ways that will sway an undecided moderate or even a DFLer looking for some change in Saint Paul.
As others have pointed out, the time is probably ideal for an IP Candidate to run for Governor, because there is no other distracting national race and the focus will definately be on this one race come late summer and fall.
If Horner has a chance this year it'll be because he begins to actually articulate the positions he holds on the major issues in ways that will resonate with the moderate voter while avoiding alienating those on the fence, not an easy task for any Candidate. And he'll need the media to pay attention.
Horner will have to do it all with less money, less staff, less attention and the fully entrenched status-quo fighting his every move. People don't like change, especially people with power, but as Minnesotan's continue to complain that the status-quo = gridlock, they may look outside the box for something new.
But forget what the pundits think, one clear sign of the seriousness of Mr. Horner might be the fact that both the GOP and DFL have already started both the underground and above ground attacks on him.
Mr Horner was on MPR's 'Midday Show' this afternoon. Mr. Horner stated that: he would be open to possibility of new tax revenue, including a sales tax as part of a solution to the budget.
Mr. Horner will probably not receive the support of partisans or ideologues. His task is to connect to the vast majority of voters who are not connected to partisan politics. I think good ideas are not owned by any one party. I can't think of a better year for Mr. Horner to have a positive impact on politics in our state.
I agree with Author Editor Jim Scheibel (Comment #3).
Eric Black has bought into the GOP's rhetoric of labeling Kelliher as far left for wanting to provide support to the indigent and educate today's youth.
Mr. Black stated, "Mark Dayton/Matt Entenza/Margaret Anderson Kelliher, a liberal who will be too quick to hit the new taxes button. . . ." The state is $3 billion in the red now; the next biennium it will be $7 billion in the red. Please define when it is not "too quick"? Is it when the state police and prison guards are the only ones left on the state payroll?
@#24:
I believe that the payroll of the Governor's office has been increasing -- that is not likely to change under another GOP administration.
@ Jeremy Powers
In my opening statement at my launch news conference I said that I would "raise revenue in ways that are fair and appropriate to today's economy." In answer to questions, I very specifically put three areas on the table: lowering the sales tax rate, broadening the base and putting in an exemption/deduction for low and moderate income people; increasing tobacco taxes; and, the $11 billion in tax expenditures. If you didn't hear specificity in my comments, I'm not sure what you were listening to. Unfortunately, we have yet to hear the same level of budget detail from Speaker Kelliher or Rep. Emmer --and they are in charge of this mess.
@Marty Owings
I answered questions at my launch news conference for 45 minutes, providing details on my proposals and plans. I would venture to say that there are few long-time candidates -- much less first-time candidates -- who have been as willing as I to provide details and to engage in conversations with voters. Last time this issue came up on MinnPost (and other blogs) I presented a very detailed overview of my positions.
As I've said many times here and elsewhere, if you think I'm not providing specifics, you need only ask specific questions.
@Jeremy Powers
I don't know you or your reporting but can tell you are quite partisan. For many people they find at some point it easier to say you made a mistake and move on. Perhaps by doing so you save some credibility for another day.
C'mon, be fair, Scheibel (#3) and Pomerantz (#24), you're misrepresenting Eric Black's point. He didn't label Dayton/Entenza/MAK as "a liberal who will be too quick to hit the new taxes button." What he asid was that the "frame [Horner] wants to put around the race" includes painting the DFL nominee as that kind of a liberal. In other words, Eric Black's post is predicting -- accurately and even-handedly, in my view -- Horner's likely campaign theme, not offering his own assessment of the DFL contenders or reporting their too-liberalness as a fact. Give the poor journalist a break!
@Tom Horner - Good thing I asked some of those questions then, and well Rachel Stassen Berger! By the way did the press conference take a total of 45 minutes or was that just Q&A time? It seemed to go fast either way!
The Davis Money Plan is the only way to rescue our state financially yet it goes un-reported.
We cannot continue doing business the same old way and survive whether it's cut, tax, or both.
I am the only candidate with a long-term solution to our financial problem and it should, in the very least, be reported.
Leslie Davis, Republic(m)an for Governor 2010
www.LeslieDavis.org
612/522-9433
There's only one question that matters, will Horner sing off on necessary tax hikes? Will he use revenue to balance the budget or will he simply try to cut spending? And what kind of revenue will he pursue? Nothing else really matters at this point, this is the defining issue for the next 4+ years.
Pawlenty inflicted structural damage to the state revenue stream with 8 years of deficits. It's not just this deficit that's the problem, for 8 years he's used nothing Enron accounting tricks to produce paper budgets. Whoever takes over next year is going to find this problem is much much much worse than it looks now, much like the budget mess Carlson inherited from Perpich. Any candidate who is not talking about revenue, or will not use revenue to balance the budget, will simply perpetuate this disaster.
Now if we've really created a political landscape where no candidate who talks about raising taxes can get elected, we have no one to blame but ourselves. This idiotic expectation that we don't need government and don't need to pay for it is the product of decades of infantile rhetoric and perverse free market ideology. You get the government you deserve in democracies, if you want live in Somalia, keep it up.
@Tom Horner - Re: whether you will raise taxes, you say you are for, "lowering the sales tax rate, broadening the base and putting in an exemption/deduction for low and moderate income people; increasing tobacco taxes; and, the $11 billion in tax expenditures.
Raising tobacco taxes is the only thing you're clear about. I'm not sure what you're talking about in terms of sales taxes, although you talk about lowering the rate, which doesn't increase the revenue generated. And "$11 billion in tax expenditures" makes no sense at all to me. I must have missed something.
@DD Goldman
Thanks for the worthless advice. Next time I make a mistake, I will.
You are not familiar with my reporting because I got out of the news business when the news media got out of the news business. I read MinnPost because it is the best political reporting around and it is just adequate.
I am very much a partisan and so are, whether they admit or not, the majority of Americans and the majority of the world's population. Party politics has been around for longer than democracy and parties are still around because they still work, even if people find the process of government too distasteful to follow. My only regret in that is we have most elections decided by the middle, many (if not most) of whom follow politics only to the degree of names and images and emotions and they end up making uninformed decisions on the people who I have to live under. Most of my life I have gotten the government other people deserve.
Jeremy,
First, you don't appear to wear your bitterness very well. The put-upon, indignant pose works for some people, not for others.
Next, you also have a problem with your logic. If most people are partisans, as you assert without evidence, how possibly can the apostate middle decide most elections, a fact you feel aggrieved about?
Last, from your febrile comments in this thread, it seems you are willing to exempt yourself from the regret you feel about those awful moderates you allege to follow politics only from emotions. I surmise many of us can appreciate the irony.
At last count, as I recall, the "drastic" cuts we are talking about amount to about 20% of the state budget.
Cutting even that amount from our budget which has grown by double digit percentages each year of years now does not seem to me to turn us into a "Somalia" or even a souther state.
Despite the hype for new taxes, "no new taxes" does not seem unreasonable to me, nor does it seem so to many others, I suspect.
So I see Mr. Horner's position on this as problematic.
Although I agree that the "kill or be killed" attitude in the legislature needs to be changed, I suspect the only legislative electoral results will be new dogs in the fight.
So I am pessimistic about beneficial alterations in the dismal state of our politics in Minnesota, so long as the population continues to be so bitterly divided over important issues.
@Jeremy Powers
Thank you for the explanation. It is interesting to me that you find MinnPost "just adequate". I'd like to do some comparative reading. Are you currently employed/published?. Thank you.
@Dan
Stamp out sesquipedalianism!
Jeremy,
Avoid alliteration always.
In addition, avoid cliches like the plague.
@Howard
The stories that MinnPost publishes are fine. However, it is limited in its ability to cover more. In other words, quality is fine; quantify is light. But unless the name of this site is short for Minneapolis Post instead of Minnesota Post, there is too little about Kline, Oberstar and even less on Skoe and Brod unless they stand up and say something really stupid or brilliant.
I am now a web developer having previously been a reporter, editor, freelance writer and public relations flack (like Horner).
I do not write professionally anywhere any more. There is no hue and cry for it, as you might expect.
I try to read the Washington Post and New York Times and at least one other daily newspaper online once a week.
@Dan
Mine was unusual, if not original. Yours were hackneyed.
Jeremy,
Though perhaps original, yours was also inapt. Where exactly were the ponderous, long words in my original comment? "Apostate"? Not exactly a GRE-level word.
My "helpful" writing tips were inapt as well, though on purpose. They've been said and printed many times before. Pick up any book on grammar and usage, and you'll no doubt see some self-consciously satirical version of them. A person would have to be pretty obtuse to suppose they could ever be meant as Strunk and White caliber pearls.
@Dan
Febrile and apostate are not everyday words. And I'm not sure they're wholly accurate.
Feverish? Really? I sounded as though my voice was rising scared and shrill?
And I doubt most people in the middle are apostate. Most have never been associated with a party at all. Their feelings are more that parties are unworthy or that the parties are vile, not that they once were in a party and leftm like a disillutioned priest. My wife was raised that way - that there is no such thing as a good political party in this or any other country or any other time.
Class.. Class... CLASS!
Where is Sister Mary Ellen when you need her?
@Jeremy
Thank you for supplying the requested information and explanation. It helps me understand your point of view better.
I believe on Mr. Horner's website he says he would support tax increases to pay off the deficit as long as they were well thought out and fair. Presumably they wouldn't be permanent either. So, for the sake of journalistic validity, please update that.