Dr. Maureen Reed

Less than two weeks after filing for Congress in the Sixth District as a DFL primary challenger against DFL endorsee Tarryl Clark, Dr. Maureen Reed announced over the weekend that she was dropping out.

That's good news for Clark, of course, who can now focus al her resources on November and the daunting goal of unseating U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann. But the Reed drop-out doesn't feel like a game changer. Political insiders and the commentariat consider Bachmann the favorite, but not quite a lock to win her third term representing the north Suburban Sixth Distrtict.

Reed, a physician, has been a high official in some health care organizations, chaired the U of M's Board of Regents, and was the lieutenant gov. nominee on the Indpendence Party ticket in 2008. She got into the congressional race before Clark, back when the 2008 nominee, Elwyn Tinklenberg, was still planning to run against Bachmann again.

But Clark, a state senator and member of the DFL legislative leadership, is a favorite in DFL circles. Since entering the race, she has been among the most successful congressional challengers nationally in fund-raising. (In her first quarter in the race, she raised more than any other House challenger.) Clark came in seeking the DFL endorsement and pledging to abide by it, which was easy since she seemed to have it locked up from the beginning.

Reed also sought the endorsement, but never firmly pledged to abide. When it became clear that she had no chance to be endorsed, Reed kept open the option to run in the Aug. 10 primary. On Sunday, she announced that she would drop that race. Her statement said that "I have come to the conclusion that a prolonged primary fight only assists Michele Bachmann" is obviously correct, but could have been clear before she filed papers for a primary run. More likely, it was simply becoming more obvious that Reed had no chance against Clark in the primary and that widespread conclusion surely made it harder to raise campaign funds.

As she had for months, Reed would have presented herself as a moderate, and therefore more electable in the Sixth than Clark, whose legislative record will make her easy for Republicans to caricature as a tax-and-spend, pro-choice liberal. It's not a terrible argument, but it didn't seem to be getting her anywhere (although I'm unaware of any public polling of a Clark v. Reed primary matchup).

State Sen. Tarryl Clark

Clark clearly was going to win the primary, but the Reed drop-out does allow Team Clark to focus sooner and more totally on identifying and courting swing voters that can help her defeat Bachmann.

In her withdrawal statement, Reed said: "I feel that it is time for the DFL to unify behind one candidate in this race," but could not quite bring herself to mention Clark by name. There have certainly been more enthusiastic shows of party unity and uniting behind the victor of an intra-party fight. The Clark campaign and DFL Chair Brian Melendez both put out press releases thanking Reed and welcoming the opportunity to focus on Bachmann.

Perhaps the best news for Clark is that, in calling for DFL unity, Reed foreclosed any concern that she would switch back to the Independence Party. The Sixth District has been one of the stronger areas for the IP. It was the heart of Jesse Ventura's big 1998 upset win, and IP candidates for Congress have run reasonably strong in the past two cycles, having received eight percent of the vote in 2006, when Bachmann was first elected, and 10 percent in 2008. Bob Anderson, who got that 10 percent, is running again this time. No one seems quite sure how much Anderson's showing had to do with this friendly name, enduring IP strength in the district or Anderson's somewhat libertarian issue positions. But the IP vote is a potential factor in the 6th.

A fourth candidate, Psychology Prof. Aubrey Immelman of College of St. Benedict/St. John’s University, also qualified for the ballot through petition signatures.

MinnPost/Raoul Benavides

Rep. Michele Bachmann

National Republican Campaign Committee spokester Tom Erickson put out a press release saying that Republicans should be grateful for the Reed withdrawal since it ensures that Bachmann will be matched up against Clark, whom Erickson characterized as a "far outside the mainstream... unelectable, tax-and-spend liberal... [with a] penchant for backing massive job-killing tax increases and cheering on the reckless Obama agenda.” One senses that these phrases may be used again.

And, speaking of concepts you will continue to hear if you pay attention to this race, the DFL press release does not attack Bachmann for ideological extremism but characterizes her as "Minnesota’s most ineffective, absentee member of Congress who will do anything except work for the people of her district."

Congressional Quarterly and Cook Political Report rate the race "likely Republican," which means they do not consider Bachmann safe, but that she is in better shape for reelection for than those who are rated "lean Republican" and certainly not a toss-up. Rothenberg Political Report rates the 6th District as "Republican favored," which is a similar ranking.