U.S. in Afghanistan: The McCain Doctrine and the Powell Doctrine

Sen. John McCain was on "Meet the Press" Sunday to react to the Gen. McChrystal mess, to assess the status of the war in Afghanistan, but mostly to express the folly of setting deadlines in a military mission.
McCain gave voice to one of the current talking-points from hawks, that Obama’s announcement of a July 2011 date for beginning to reduce U.S. troop strength in Afghanistan was a huge blunder and that nothing good can happen until Obama takes it back and announces instead that the United States will stay as long as it takes, pay any price in blood and treasure, to achieve its mission.
McCAIN: “Let's have the president of the United States stand up and say: ‘It's conditions-based. We will not withdraw a single troop unless we think it's necessary to do so [presumably McCain didn’t mean ‘necessary’ there] and we may even add troops if we think it's necessary to do so.’ Let's hear that. That sends a message to our friends and enemies alike, and I guarantee you it would have a significant impact on our enemies and friends alike.”
And
McCAIN: “Look, I, I'm against a timetable. In wars, you declare when you're leaving after you've succeeded. “ (Full transcript of the interview here.)
This is a rerun of an argument that hawks, including McCain, made in Iraq, that you must never set deadlines because it creates a perverse incentive for the enemy to wait you out. McCain was the leading political champion of the “surge” in Iraq and, after it began, of the argument that it had to be sustained indefinitely until it got results. Any decision about beginning to withdraw troops had to be “results-based” or “conditions-based,” as McCain put it yesterday.
McCain feels vindicated by the way the surge worked out. Support for the Iraq surge seems to have become, in his eyes, the test that separates the apes from the human beings. When "Meet the Press" moderator David Gregory tried to get McCain to respond to an excerpt from a column by New York Times columnist Tom Friedman, McCain replied, essentially, that Friedman has no credibility because Friedman said the surge wouldn’t work.
My own view is that the surge was an important contributor, along with the so-called “Sunni Awakening” movement, to a tactical success leading to a period of relative stability (but only relative to the chaos in the period just before, long after the U.S. Iraq mission had supposedly been accomplished). That period of stability enabled the drawdown of U.S. troops to begin. But Iraq is still fairly close to the abyss.
And this above all: Although it’s a good thing that the hideous murderous dictator Saddam Hussein is no longer in charge of a country, the rest of the U.S. war aims have not been achieved. The United States did not weaken Iran and may have strengthened it. It has not caused a wave of democratization across the Mideast. It has added to Arab and Muslim dislike/resentment of the United States, contributed to an image of the U.S. as trigger happy, cost the lives of thousands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis plus hundreds of billions of dollars. The decision to invade Iraq allowed the initially successful U.S. mission in Afghanistan to stagnate. It may be decades before the verdict is in, but it’s highly likely that history will view the entire mission to Iraq as a blunder for the United States. Both Sen. McCain and Tom Friedman were on the wrong side of that one. Friedman admits it. I gather McCain does not because the surge worked.
McCain agrees that the U.S. mission in Afghanistan is going badly now, seven months into the surge there. McCain apparently thinks more U.S. troops will be needed, for longer, than Obama hoped when he authorized the deployment of 30,000 additional troops and simultaneously made his mushy announcement that some sort of a withdrawal would begin in July 2011.
There are various possible benefits to Obama’s mushy announcement, including lighting a fire under Afghan President Karzai and slightly pacifying his own left wing. But I agree with McCain that it’s unwise to tell the enemy when you plan to leave, for exactly the reason that McCain states. It’s just that he carries it too far and it becomes an excuse for all military failures or a justification for almost perpetual war.
The other side of the coin is this: If you choose your wars unwisely, then announce that you will stay until all your objectives have been meet, and, as the years start to go by the war starts to appear unwinnable at a reasonable cost in time, blood, treasure, etc., then you will eventually have to leave in defeat, and that is a bigger blow to your nation’s credibility.
The classic case is, of course, Vietnam, the war in which McCain fought and admirably endured years of imprisonment. On "Meet the Press," to my amazement, McCain cited Vietnam as a leading example of what happens when the U.S. doesn’t signal its resolve to win at all costs. Here’s what he said yesterday:
McCAIN: "I am convinced of one thing, you — fundamental of warfare, you tell the enemy when you're leaving, that — then they will wait. And Ho Chi Minh certainly is an authentication of that, of that course of action."
This is roughly the opposite of what happened. The United States had troops in Vietnam, from a few military trainers in 1956, until 1975. At its peak in 1969, U.S. troop strength reached 543,000. Yes, 543,000. Each escalation was designed, at least in part, to send the signal to the enemy that resistance was futile, that the United States had almost unlimited resources, was totally committed to achieving its goals, and that failure was not an option.
Long after the U.S. public had developed doubts about whether the U.S. mission was justifiable or winnable, the U.S. leadership subscribed to exactly the philosophy that McCain now advocates, namely that the United States had to stay until victory no matter what it cost because our credibility was at stake.
When the war finally ended, with none of the U.S. goals achieved, U.S. casualties were over 58,000. Total losses by all sides were about 1.5 million military, and perhaps another 4 million civilian, stretching across Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. To take from this tale the lesson that the United States failed to signal resolve is, to greatly understate, worrisome.
A different post-Vietnam lesson was the so-called Powell Doctrine. This one makes more sense to me. As summarized in this article by the New America Foundation, The "Powell Doctrine":
“holds that the US should go to war only as a last resort and then only with overwhelming force. In his article "US Forces: Challenges Ahead" in Foreign Affairs in 1992-93, [Gen. Colin] Powell posed a number of questions to be asked by US policymakers before launching a war. Is a vital national security interest threatened? Do we have a clear, attainable objective? Have the risks and costs been fully and frankly analyzed? Have all other non-violent policy means been exhausted? Is there a plausible exit strategy? Have the consequences been fully considered? Is the action supported by the American people? Does the US have broad international support?”
The Iraq war was an unintended seminar in how to fail to apply the Powell doctrine. The Afghan war got off to a better start. Post 9/11, it seemed clearer that vital national security interests were involved. The mission of removing the Taliban and depriving Al Qaida of a base of operations seemed clear. The U.S. had good international support and all of the military power needed to accomplish the strictly military mission. The Taliban was soon driven from power and Al Qaida was deprived of its base. The problem, in these matters, seems to begin when the military is asked to accomplish non-military goals.
Nine years later, the Afghan mission has become one of those mushy nation-building deals, not something the military can really accomplish. The Afghan president, whom the United States put into power, has become an unreliable ally. (McCain says that is all because he is worried about the Americans leaving, but the unreliability and corruption of his government were problems long before Obama came to office.)
Yesterday, Gregory asked McCain a question that he said had been nagging at him. Why is the U.S. government having to help the Afghan government recruit new soldiers, while the Taliban, which has no superpower ally, seems to have no shortage of fighters? McCain admitted it was a good question, then segued back to the problem of Obama signaling that the U.S. patience with the mission was not endless.
Do we have, as the Powell doctrine says we must, "a clear, obtainable objective? Is there a plausible exit strategy?" Under the McCain doctrine, are we allowed to even ask that question?
More like this
Recent Stories
Most Commented
-
24 comments
-
23 comments
-
22 comments
-
19 comments
-
18 comments
Comments (15)
I really don't remember any of the Sunday morning network "news" shows having as many members of the minority party on, on a weekly basis, expressing the opposition viewpoint, as frequently they do now, when GWB was in the White House.
My biggest concern: Why do 'the media' continually foist John McCain's opinions on us? He seems to be on the talking head shows on a weekly basis, doesn't he?
There are 99 other senators* -- my guess is that you can't name either of Wyoming's without an assist from the google -- yet we rely on a failed presidential candidate as a source authority for -- well, I'm not quite sure what for, but whatever it is, it apparently fits NBC's agenda.
* sadly, today there are 98 other senators.
Almost 10 years in this swamp and we still haven't taken down a bit player on the world's stage. Trillions of dollars gone or committed. Hundreds of thousands dead. Millions displaced. More instability in the world. Financial crisis in the US, largely due to this misadventure (distract the public with cheap houses and real estate inflation, place all war spending off-budget).
...I'm against a timetable. In wars, you declare when you're leaving after you've succeeded....
Fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to get a group largely based in Pakistan?
Who the hell has won at this point?
(quote)
Over the weekend, CIA chief Leon Panetta had a chat with This Week's Jake Tapper, and provided the following assessment of Al Qaeda' capabilities:
TAPPER: How many Al Qaida do you think are in Afghanistan?
PANETTA: I think the estimate on the number of Al Qaida is actually relatively small. I think at most, we're looking at maybe 60 to 100, maybe less. It's in that vicinity. There's no question that the main location of Al Qaida is in tribal areas of Pakistan....
(end quote)
The obscenity of the cost and consequences of trying to deal with those 60 to 100 Al Qaida should outrage all Americans.
It's too much to provide $200B in extended unemployment compensation, but trillions spent to get rid of 60-100 bad guy--stand up and salute!!
I'm left with more questions than answers, like:
How does one fund perpetual war? I would like to hear Senator McCain's response to such a question.
Also, to further study the Vietnam analogy, even though we 'lost', the long term outcome is an interesting case study. Yes, the communists took over - for several decades. But then what happened? Vietnam slowly started opening up and is now, while not an ally per se, is not an enemy either.
So I'm left wondering what Sen McCain's primary concern is - is it just the desire to save face by not losing, by not being embarrassed by an inferior fighting force? Reading the Sentor's comments makes me wonder whether we've lost perspective of what we're really supposed to be doing there - which is perhaps Eric's point in mentioning the Powell doctrine.
In both Vietnam and Iraq/Afghanistan/Pakistan, civilian deaths far exceed those of military ones -- especially now that we use drones to bomb houses which sometimes-bad intelligence tells us are inhabited by bad guys. The drones, however, do not differentiate between a bad guy (who may or may not be there) and his family, extended family and friends who share the house and/or the one next door.
A couple of years ago, the Pentagon proudly announced that we had "gotten" about 12 top or near-top Al Queda leaders in Afghanistan during our time there. The article didn't mention how many civilians had been killed, but I'd guess at that time somewhere close to a thousand.
The president stated the other day that our aim was to protect the United States from terrorists. So we are to remain until there are none, even though the resentment we arouse leads to ever more being created? Did someone say "Eternal War?" Are McCain and Lieberman neocons?
My hope at the moment is that Karzai's apparent overtures to the Taliban will lead to Afghanistan's return to decentralized village-based governance and Karzai will tell (not ask) us to remove all our troops.
Wayne Swickley’s implied question is a good one. John McCain isn’t even the only failed presidential candidate with direct military experience who’s in the Senate, something which might otherwise justify having him be the “go-to guy” when the media has questions about something related to the military. There’s also John Kerry, and now that the Swift Boat crowd has been revealed to be another Karl Rove dirty trick, his experience, while not based on years as a prisoner, seems just as relevant as McCain’s. Maybe more so, since McCain was a Navy pilot with no inkling of what was happening on the ground in Vietnam, while Kerry was on the ground (and water) with first-hand knowledge of what the war was like.
Swickley is also correct about the Senate – I couldn’t name Wyoming’s two Senators without a Google search, which I’m not going to do.
We invaded Iraq under false pretenses, as everyone except George Bush and Dick Cheney seems to realize. Saddam Hussein may well have been the Middle Eastern version of Adolf Hitler, but he posed no threat to the United States, and ample evidence has since been provided to support that idea.
I wonder how many Iraqi families lost family members to errant bombs or bullets while we were busy fighting there for basically no reason? Why would an Iraqi family, not supportive of Hussein, but simply trying to live their lives within the bizarre constraints of that society, finding themselves without electricity and their livelihood destroyed by the invasion, respond positively to family members being killed as “collateral damage” by American troops or aircraft? How long before they consider the U.S. a friend? My guess is, "never."
Similar questions apply to Afghanistan. Unlike Iraq, we at least had a plausible military mission there originally, but I’m in agreement with Eric – “Nation-building” is not the forte of our armed forces, nor, I would argue, should it be. I want our forces to protect the United States, its citizens, and its political and economic interests as directed by Congress and the President, which is their constitutional role. Leave the “nation-building” to the State Department.
The reason for our invasion of Afghanistan has long ago faded into the “fog of war,” and what I’m hearing from Washington, whether civilian or military, not only doesn’t make sense, it doesn’t begin to justify the thousands of young Americans whose lives have been lost in the Middle East since 9/11/01, or the financial black hole it has created, which – vampire-like – is sucking the blood and energy from an already-sickly economy.
The Powell Doctrine seems pretty much the policy we followed in WW2, and to a degree, in Korea. Many of Powell’s rhetorical questions have simple answers in the context of Afghanistan. Unfortunately, that answer is “No.”
The tendency toward escalation of commitment to a course of action is very strong. One has to remember that "sunk cost" should not be the basis for deciding if we continue what we're doing. We must balance the future blood and treasure - not that already spent - with the prospects for success if we expend that future blood and treasure.
My own guess is, it is time for westerns to pull out of both Iraq and Afghanistan. We won very little in terms of friendships, loyalty or commitment among locals in either place. The sooner we leave, the sooner they sort things out without the US as a heavy foot print or excuse for bad results
The concerns about endless war are legit. But it’s important to note that the Powell Doctrine has its own problems — namely that it’s a Cold War relic. Its underlying set of assumptions presume a balance of power situation like that during the 1980s. The biggest of these assumptions is that force is binary — all on or all off. As Madeleine Albright famously asked Powell: “What's the point of having this superb military you're always talking about if we can't use it?” Iraq is as much a creation of the Powell Doctrine as it is of what you call the McCain doctrine. Ditto for Afghanistan. When force failed to achieve the desired outcome, we had no fallback position.
Breaking down the essential questions the Powell Doctrine wants to pose before entering a conflict reveals the flaws clearly:
“1. Is a vital national security interest threatened?”
This presumes force can only be used in support of the most important security interest, as opposed to economic or humanitarian interest or less-than-vital security interests. Do Somali pirates really challenge our vital national security interests? No, they’re a nuisance but still arguably worth deploying a small flotilla to the Gulf of Aden. We’ve been taking on such small-scale players since the Barbary Wars. Small-scale force has a purpose.
“2. Do we have a clear, attainable objective?”
Modern states don’t obtain political objectives through military action and arguably haven’t since the wars that created Israel. Rather, they use military action to establish conditions that are most favorable for the desired political outcome. After that, it is up to other actors — the State Department, USAID, warring factions, NGOs, etc. — to achieve the desired political objective. This necessarily precludes a “clear, attainable objective.”
“3. Have the risks and costs been fully and frankly analyzed?”
Clearly important, but hardly doctrine neutral.
“4. Have all other non-violent policy means been fully exhausted?”
This sounds nice and very kum-bah-yah. But sometimes an immediate, violent intervention yields better results than an orderly, gradual escalation of force. All indications are that Rwandan blood-letting could have been more easily halted with an immediate intervention instead of the drawn out process that happened. This question, more than any other, points to the Cold War origins of this doctrine.
“5. Is there a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement?”
Just as modern states don’t use militaries to attain political objectives, modern conflicts don’t end with one battle or even one war. They are conflict cycles with periods of greater and lesser confrontation that all fit within the scheme of the larger conflict. Look at America’s conflict with Iraq from the 1990s until today, Israel’s conflict with HAMAS and the PLA or any number of other conflict cycles. I say “modern conflicts,” but there’s nothing in this worldview that a Greek during the Peloponnesian War wouldn’t recognize.
“6. Have the consequences of our action been fully considered?”
See number three.
“7. Is the action supported by the American people?”
This has two flaws. The first is that the American people aren’t always able to accurately judge what is a “vital national security interest.” We were, after all, a sleepy nation prior to World War II. In such circumstances, public support is more a readiness measure than a guide to whether the war is worthwhile.
The second is that the American people might not be as necessary as we like to think. Under Clausewitzian views of warfare, there are three crucial elements to waging war: The state, the military and the people. A war is lost when just one of those three elements no longer has the willingness or ability of to wage war.
The relevant strength of each part of this trinity will vary over time and place, but it has long been presumed that Americans don’t have the stomach for war once they stretch on — that is, the people were the weak part of our trinity.
Yet we’ve sustained two wars for years despite widespread opposition. People may not like them, but they haven’t risen up against them. Our apathy has made the people part of the Clausewitzian trinity so perilously irrelevant as to almost render it a duality. This is the complete opposite of the situation in Vietnam and an almost Orwellian development.
“8. Do we have genuine broad international support?”
Broad international support is important, and the lack of it hamstrung us in Iraq. Yet it is illogical for a doctrine that presumes a threat to a vital national security interest to depend on broad international support for action. With close to 200 states and uncounted non-state actors, broad international support is far from a given, even in a just war.
Almost a decade ago, a choice was made to pursue Al Qaida with a military model of response. But because Al Qaida was not a military group there was a mismatch from the beginning. So we quickly abandoned a botched plan to capture Bin Laden and attacked Iraq "because we could"--their military model aligned with our military model. We won that military model conflict, "mission accomplished", and lost the "peace"--to the long-standing detriment of Iraq, Iraqi's and US reputation in the Middle East.
We now return to Afghanistan with the military model to win the "hearts and minds" of a people who have forever lived outside of the hearts and minds of the American people. It will be a long, long time before there is convergence there, and it will be even longer with every civilian death.
It's time to go back and revisit the "police" model of response as a viable option to the "military" model in response to international terrorism. After 9/11, there was a relatively high spirit of cooperation among the shocked world population. The number of cooperative world governments was at an all-time high. After all, non-state actors, by definition, potentially threaten the validity of all states. They live in ungoverned areas where international "police" type actions are understandable and defensible.
For as long as I have been alive we have lived with wars and rumors of wars. And I came on the scene after "the war to end all wars."
Wars happen because someone or some state wants something that someone or some other state does not want to give. It may be security, or power, or territory, or resources, or any number of things people desire. It may simply be, as in the case of the jihadists, to force others to think and live as they do in the name of a god.
Wars have long been studied with a view to deciding when a war is "justified," and Powell's rationale is just one of them. But it seems that no matter who wants a war, s/he is always persuaded that it is a "justified" one. At least they SAY it is.
Some in recent times have declared that war is NEVER justified. But they seem to be a minority, and their views do not seem to prevail.
There was a time when it was thought that defense of one's borders justified a navy sufficient to keep an enemy from our shores, and that a standing army was a threat to our internal security. Those times are gone.
But, as in Hitler's case, when one spends millions to build up a powerful war machine, one must face the fact that it will wear out and/or become obsolete. It has no other purpose than to wreak destruction, so if it is to produce value it needs to be used.
After World War II, with the cold war, our country and its leaders believed we needed a huge war machine to deflect the threat of world domination by countries under the thumb of Marxist regimes. And so we built one.
Having it, we found reasons to use it, in Korea, and VietNam, and elsewhere from time to time. Win or lose, we used up some of that otherwise useless materiel. When the cold war ended, we found other uses for it, in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Our volunteer armed forces, if there were no wars, would wither from lack of use and opportunity for promotion. Our weapons, if not used up, would wear out and/or become obsolete.
On the world stage, our physical might and technological superiority give us political clout, adding another reason to keep it going.
Threats, real and imagined, fuel our fears for our own safety and lead us to threaten the safety of others.
No-one seems to ask the basic questions:
>IS war EVER "justified"? Or is it (as a famous draft protester said in the VietNam years) simply the continuation of Cain's murder of his brother Abel?
>Do we go to war over and over again, like Hitler, because we have to "use" the war machine we have created?
>Will we be overrun if we do not overrun others? Does anyone REALLY know?
>Is "our way of life" really so much better than other ways of living that it must be spread by force? These days that may seem questionable.
>Are we "our brothers keepers," with an obligation to come to the aid of the oppressed elsewhere in the world? And do we care about them?
As I come to the waning years of an already long life, I ponder these questions in the night hours and more and more see the raging debates as so much sound and fury, avoiding the real issues about war.
It seems to me that throughout history peoples have feared other those who build and maintain huge war machines -- and with good reason. If we have such a machine, should we not expect to be feared? And, of course, hated because of the fear we generate?
And it seems to me we could well afford to simply step back and let some peoples go after each other, if that's what they want to do -- unless they ask for our help.
And if they do in fact think to attack us or our friends, let them know their country will be uninhabitable for a few thousand years, and let it go at that.
McCain and the Bush administration were against a timetable in Iraq. Yet we had a timetable for Iraq because the Iraqis wanted one. Does McCain want to ramp up the war in Iraq again?
The people of Afghanistan and Pakistan do not want us there. They think we want something from them because we invaded their country. A timetable tells them that we're not intending to occupy their lands for the rest of eternity. They don't want to be a client state like the Philippines, Japan, Germany, or South Korea. We might think our presence is benign, but they view us as crusaders and occupiers. The Taliban brought about a tyrannical order, but when you've lived with war for decades, order looks like a good thing even if it is repressive. We've brought anarchy back to Afghanistan and they resent it.
Osama bin Laden launched his attack on the United States because the US had established a permanent military base in Saudi Arabia. The people of Pakistan and Afghanistan have similar fears.
By pulling out of Iraq and Afghanistan as promised we will demonstrate our good intentions. Those countries will continue to be a mess, and we will be blamed for it; that's the price for being a superpower. But bullying these countries further will not solve the problem.
The lesson of Viet Nam is that invading, occupying and bombing countries doesn't work in the long run if you're the good guys and really do want to help. Having a superior economic and political system is what wins long-term conflicts: living well is the best revenge. We "lost" Viet Nam, but 15 years later we won the economic war of capitalism vs. communism. Nearly every communist economy has fallen and been replaced by some type of market-based capitalist economy.
Similarly, force of arms will not win the ideological battle we're fighting against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The forces of oppression and intolerance will ultimately lose out. It may take 15 or 30 years, but in the end they'll lose, just as the Communists lost. By prolonging armed conflict we are propping up our enemies by raising nationalistic fears of an eternal occupation, and that gives them power over the locals.
That doesn't mean we just pull out and let Al Qaeda do what they want. We have to achieve certain tactical goals on the ground to eliminate specific threats. But we've got to stop bombing Afghan civilians and causing mayhem for the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
One day these countries will tire of living in the middle ages and they'll welcome the things we offer. They won't be our best pals. But as long as they stop shooting at us and bombing our cities, we will have "won."
This is an argument that I don't give a lot of credence to, because if you follow the logic of this argument, then you would never leave. Right? Essentially you'd be signing on to have Afghanistan as a protectorate of the United States indefinitely.
If the past eight years had shown ongoing success, perhaps an alternative case for U.S. policies could be made. But the evidence on the ground demonstrates only continued deterioration and darkening of the prognosis. Will we have more of the same? Or will there be a U.S. recognition that the American presence has now become more the problem than the solution? We do not hear that debate.
Well said, John
Well said, John.
My dad loved to fly. Coming of age in the late 1930s, he got a degree in aeronautical engineering, and after Pearl Harbor, became a pretty highly-decorated Navy fighter pilot in the Pacific. When the war was over and Japan had surrendered. He got a job as an engineer with an aircraft company that’s since been absorbed by Boeing, but over time, his test flights for the company became increasingly frequent, and he’d generally left the desk behind by the time I started school. Shortly after my 7th birthday, he was killed on what should have been a routine test flight of a production Navy fighter jet.
I’ve often wondered, had he lived, how he would have responded to risking his life on 46 combat missions against Japan, only to see Honda and Mitsubishi, who were busy manufacturing weapons to be used against him during the war, selling cars in the U.S. a generation later. What purpose did his risk serve?
I’ve also often wondered how my Mom, who was left with 4 little kids when he was killed, reconciled the loss of her husband to the manufacture of weapons with the (temporary) affluence his occupation brought us?
Dad disliked the military, but then as now, the military had ample taxpayer dollars with which to build the coolest, fastest airplanes, and he loved flying the coolest, fastest airplanes. Perhaps that nearly adolescent fascination with “cool” and “fast” not only did him in, but supports a substantial part of the ongoing military-industrial complex.
One of the real benefits of foreign travel, especially for a child, is to discover, usually in surprise and wonder, that there are numerous, non-American ways by which one might live happily. My one trip to Europe, when I was 11 going on 12, was a revelation on so many levels that I still remember much of it clearly, more than half a century later, and it’s been a life-long topic of conversation with my sisters, who also went on that trip. It’s perhaps understandable that every culture thinks of itself as being superior to other, different, cultures, but sincerity of belief bears little relation to the truth, and John’s question in this regard is an excellent, soul-searching one – is our way of life so much better than others that it merits being spread at the point of a gun?
Who, exactly, so seriously threatens our political, economic and social system(s) that they pose a legitimate threat to “overrun” the United States? So far, at least, terrorists are generally state-less – they’re operating on their own agenda, and traditional military forces and techniques have proved remarkably ineffective at neutralizing them. We’re maintaining a gargantuan defense apparatus, serving in the process to subsidize a host of industries (and jobs) that contribute nothing to GDP, but depend on the maintenance of that military machine, when, as far as I can see, there’s no legitimate threat of invasion by anyone.
We can't win, because we have no credible local partner. Thieu and Diem were pikers compared to the Karzai family. General McChrystal was tasked with coming up with the best possible strategy to win a war in Afghanistan, not to determine whether or not that best strategy would actually work.
Dicking around for 8 years in Afghanistan is obscene, especially if our best outcome is 'not lose.' To restate the obvious one more time, we are mistaking the sunk-cost fallacy for a strategy.
Were our nation's affluence unbounded, the lives of our young soldiers of no value, and the rest of our global interests happy to idle while we mess around in the Middle East, it might be a nice hobby to play this game a bit longer. But with the realities we have, our best course is to reset the registers to their positions antebellum and write off Iraq and this colossally mismanaged war in Afghanistan as no longer in the national interest to pursue.
Show me the cost/benefit trade-offs, the opportunity costs in global presence and global readiness, the wear and tear on Army, Guard, and Reserve, the cost in dollars and lives, the price the American people have to pay to meet our "goals". I would be interested to know how this fits with vital national interests.
$300 billion taxpayer’s dollars budgeted for 2010 in Afghanistan, according to Congressional Research Service.
Total US spending including 2010 estimated at $739.8 by Infoplease.
1,125 US military personnel have been killed in Afghanistan, per database maintained by Washington Post.
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/fallen/afghanistan/
Clearly we have a case for being there. The case for staying, though, really needs something more cold-eyed than it will do some good - maybe. But leave we should, are, and will. El Cid got this one right.