NBC’s Political Unit has compiled an early guess at which, among the states that will have a U.S. Senate race on the 2012 ballot, are the 10 states likeliest to produce a pickup, meaning the seat will move from one party to the other. And, to the extent we can take such a list seriously, it’s very good for the Repubs gaining ground and possibly gaining control of the Senate, which currently has a slim 53-47 Dem majority.
Among the 10 likeliest turnovers, NBC finds nine seats currently held by Dems. And the only somewhat likely Dem pickups rank seventh and eighth on the likeliness list.
Of course it’s way early. Incumbent senators are still deciding whether to seek another term and for those races that will be for open seats, the field of candidates is still forming. But — unlike the races for the U.S. and for the White House — Repubs have big built-in advantages in the 2012 Senate races.
The biggest, and this one won’t change, is that of the 33 seats that will be up in 2012, 23 are currently held by Dems, so that gives the Repubs a lot more pickup possibilities before you even start analyzing the races. The Dems had such a good year in 2006 — the peak of the public’s Bush revulsion — that they won a lot of Senate races in purple and even red states that will be tough to defend.
Anyway, here’s the NBC top 10, by state with the name and party of the current incumbent. (Read the full NBC post for their comments on each race).
- 1. North Dakota. (D) Sen. Kent Conrad is retiring.
- 2. Nebraska (D) Sen. Ben Nelson is running.
- 3. Montana (D) Freshman Jon Tester is running.
- 4. Missouri (D) Sen. Claire McCaskill is running.
- 5. Virginia (D). Sen. Jim Webb is retiring.
- 6. New Mexico (D) Sen. Jeff Bingaman is retiring.
- 7. Nevada (R) Sen. John Ensign is retiring.
- 8. Massachusetts (R) Sen. Scott Brown is running.
- 9. Florida (D) Sen. Bill Nelson is running.
- 10. Michigan (D) Sen. Debbie Stabenow is running.
