MinnPost.com's political coverage also appears on Midwest Politics, a free subscriber service for politicos looking for one-stop shopping of political news from around the Midwest.

 

ERIC BLACK INK

  • Switch to Small Text Size
  • Switch to Medium Text Size
  • Switch to Large Text Size
Recommend to a friend Print Submit a Comment

    Delegate math: the latest numbers

    Delegate math continues to be Hillary Rodham Clinton's nemesis. And what was once her strength — the superdelegate count — is now her weakness. Clinton is universally expected to win big in West Virginia today. The latest West Virginia poll listed on pollster.com has her ahead by a mind-boggling 60-24 percent. If she is of a mind to say so tonight, she can certainly claim that this says something powerful about her appeal (the competing prediction is that she will seize the moment of triumph to bow out). But here's why pretty much no victory tonight, no matter how convincing, can revive her chances much:

    Since the last primary, a week ago when Barack Obama's big win in North Carolina and her narrow win in Indiana compelled the commentariat to acknowledge that the outcome of the nominations was no longer in doubt, Obama has gained 25 new superdelegate commitments (according, as usual in these parts, to the tally maintained by DemConWatch).

    During the same week, Clinton has picked up a net (when you subtract for those who formerly committed to her but switched last week to Obama) of one superdelegate.

     

     

    West Virginia has just 28 pledged delegates, who will be awarded on a proportional basis after tonight's counting. So here's the rub: Even if she were to win the one and only primary of the week by a mind-boggling 80-20 margin, she would still have lost ground for the week on the ultimate scorecard, which is total delegates gained.

    Heading into West Virginia, Obama stands 36 delegates short of locking up a majority of the pledged delegates. He won't win many tonight, but next Tuesday come Kentucky (with 51 delegates and Clinton holding a very substantial lead in polls) and Oregon (with 52 pledged delegates at stake and Obama expected to win a majority). It seems pretty dang likely that a week from tonight Obama will lock up the majority of pledged delegates, gaining  what some consider an important new argument to make that the remaining uncommitted superdels should get off the fence and end the contest.

    A small but potentially influential group of superdelegates, sometimes called the "Pelosi Club" because they have endorsed an idea put forth by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have announced that they plan to support whoever wins the majority of the pledged delegates. There are just nine Pelosi Club members, including the speaker, her daughter Christine and former President Jimmy Carter.

    We haven't had much of a discussion thread on the subject, so before it disappears from view, let me pose the question to MinnPost readers: If you were a superdelegate, let's say a Democratic member of Congress, would you base your support primarily on:

    which candidate carried your district in a primary or caucus;

    carried your state;

    agreed with you the most on the issues;

    you believed would be the stronger general election candidate; or

    you believed would be the best president.

    What think?

    Tuesday morning update: As the polls were opening in West Virginia, the Obama campaign rolled out two more superdelegate endorsements, from U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly of Indiana and New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin. Just to nail down the point from above, that means that Clinton would have to take the West Virginia pledged delegates by 28-0 to win the week.

    And p.s.: 
    U.S. Rep. Collin Peterson said two things on MPR this morning relative to his role as Minnesota's last uncommitted superdelegate:

    Thing 1.
    The fact that Obama carried his district in the Minnesota caucuses would carry great weight in his deliberations when he gets around to thinking about endorsing.

    Thing 2.
    He doesn't think there should be any superdelegates.

    Please feel free to add Peterson's thing 2 to the items for discussion. Should there be superdelegates?

    Election '08 | Tue, May 13 2008 8:38 am

    5 Comments: Hide/Show Comments

    5 Comment: Hide/Show Comment

    0 Comments:

    Post a comment:

    To post a comment, please log in below as a registered commenter.

    E-mail address

    Password

     

    Forgot Password? | Register to Comment

    MinnPost does not permit the use of foul language, personal attacks or the use of language that may be libelous or interpreted as inciting hate or sexual harassment. User comments are reviewed by moderators to ensure that comments meet these standards and adhere to MinnPost's terms of use and privacy policy.

    We intend for this area to be used by our readers as a place for civil, thought-provoking and high-quality public discussion. In order to achieve this, MinnPost requires that all commenters register and post comments with their actual names and place of residence. Register here to comment.

    Eric Black
    Eric Black Ink

    minnpost.com/ericblack



    Eric Black is a former reporter for the Star Tribune and Twin Cities blogger. He writes about politics and government of Minnesota and the United States, the historical background of topics and other issues. Click here to view Eric's previous postings at former blog, Eric Black Ink. He can be reached at eblack [at] minnpost [dot] com.

    Recent Posts by Eric Black