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By Eric Black | Published Thu, Jun 25 2009 4:15 am
That's a ridiculous headline, for which I humbly apologize. But I'll explain nonetheless.
Today is Thursday, the day the Minn. Supremes typically release their decisions for the week. Usually at 10 a.m.
We the Coleman/Franken election/recount/contest/appeal obsessed community are, for at least the second Thursday since the oral arguments, atwitter at the possibility that today is the day the Supreme will pronounce judgment. (People have begun asking me why it is taking this long. Answer: I have no idea. Jason DeRusha put up a good post yesterday about where the time goes.)
I also have no special information or indication that today will be the day. And, if you are reading this much after 10 a.m., you know by now whether it was the day or not.
I already published -- last Thursday by no coincidence -- my advance checklist for the ruling. And I added a couple of days ago, my prediction that most likely, if the ruling goes the way everyone expects, Norm Coleman will concede within a few days, in which case several other scenarios -- Pawlenty delays the certificate, the Senate Repubs mount a filibuster -- cannot happen. (And even if Coleman takes the case to the next level, those scenarios are unlikely.)
But I do have one new fact, related to my ridiculous Alito headline, and why wait until it is irrelevant to share it with you, after all we've been through together.
So, assuming the Minn. Supremes affirm the lower court ruling that Franken got the most votes and is entitled to an election certificiate (which I rate as quite likely);
And if Norm Coleman announces (probably not on day one, but within a couple of days) that he plans to file a petition for certiorari with the U.S. Supremes asking them to take the case (which I rate as the less likely outcome, but not so unlikely);
And if Tim Pawlenty says that under the circumstances he will wait a few days to give Coleman a chance to seek a stay from the U.S. Supremes (which, if the first two occur, I consider it likely Pawlenty would do this, and, under those circumstances not unreasonable);
Then it turns out that the system for getting such a stay is this: The federal judicial system is divided into judicial circuits. Minnesota is part of the Eight Circuit (which runs all the way down the Mississippi River to Arkansas). And if you want a stay from the U.S. Supreme Court, it turns out that each circuit is assigned to a particular Supreme Court justice for such matters (called, reasonably enough, the "circuit justice").
And that circuit justice can, by his or herself, issue a stay of a ruling arising from his or her circuit, if the stay meets the requirements for a stay (and I have previously written about what those standards are, and noted they are a very tough hill to climb, and I rate it as unlikely that Coleman can get such a stay).
So, perhaps you've guessed my one new piece of information. The circuit justice for our circuit is Justice Samuel Alito. And if the scenario plays out that way, he will have authority to issue a stay, which would place the matter on hold and presumably prevent Gov. Pawlenty from issuing the certificate and prevent Franken from being seated, at least until more members of the Supreme Court could consider whether to leave the stay in place until they got around to deciding whether or not to take Coleman's appeal (if there is such an appeal).
By the way, if it came to that, I also rate it unlikely that the U.S. Supremes will take the case.
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