How does what we are doing relate to the security problems in Pakistan, to me a far bigger worry than anything happening in Afghanistan?

What are we going to do about the corruption and abuses of the Afghan government, arguably a more troublesome foe than the Taliban?

As long as there is a birth rate and a willingness to take casualties an insurgency will abide and endure.
That's irrespective of whether the cause is just or not.

The Pentagon took to calling the War on Terror "The Long War." They have no idea. Look at the IRA's 30-year war against the UK. Or the Palestinians. Or (most significantly in US history) the Viet Minh/Viet Cong. Finally, when the Germans surrendered everyone knew it was over, although there were worries about an alpine insurgency.

When do you know when the Taliban is finished as long as there are Moms raising boys to become young men without any prospects?

1) How do we pay for it?
2) What's the expected Return on Investment?
3) What are the metrics for success?
4) What's the exit strategy?

What he SHOULD (and obviously won't) say is that this is a fight that we can't afford and can't win, and that we will draw down our forces to training personnel (and those contingent upon a competent and honest government) in one year.

What he WILL say will be surge redux:
We are going to send 30K more troops over there; if we don't see results (hopefully specified) in a year we're gone.

And of course he will announce the new tax revenue that will pay for the war (we've only had one war that was accompanied by tax reductions, and look where that got us).

And he will fudge on Pakistan, since (short of starting yet another war) there's nothing he can do about their support of Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

The following is what I had hoped I might hear from my President:


My administration has completed a thorough review and debate on what course we should take in Afghanistan. In the media you have likely heard about many of the options explored by members of my administration. You have also heard the criticism that we have taken too long and are acting indecisively. I am confident that most Americans would not want us to make this pivotal decision hurriedly. Hurried decisions about war have been painful lessons for our nation. I have made a decision that I would like to talk with you about and ask for your support. It is a choice that I believe a majority of Americans have already come to.

In the coming weeks we will initiate discussions with our coalition partners, the Afghan government and other nations in the region on setting a timetable for withdrawing American and coalition armed forces. We will not be sending more troops. The results of these discussions and negotiations will determine our timetable for withdrawal. However, our goal is end United States military presence in Afghanistan within two years, sooner if possible. This will be done with the utmost care to ensure the safety of our troops.

Why have we come to this conclusion? First, and I wish to be clear about this, we are not abandoning the Afghan people, we are simply acknowledging that our continued military presence is an obstacle to any hope for Afghan national reconciliation. We are perceived as occupiers, who do not intend to leave. Thus Afghanis’ energy is directed at expelling the invaders, instead of being directed toward resolving their own conflicts and working to improve the lives of all Afghans.

There have been many mistakes made in our nation’s response to the terrorist attacks of 9-11. These mistakes can be characterized by impatient and overreach. This was certainly the case in Iraq and it has become more clear during our review this was also the case in Afghanistan.

There are those who will criticize our decision as a failure to win the war and that by doing so are dishonoring the service men and women who have sacrificed so much. Yet, I think most of you would agree that to continue on a course that is mistaken for the sake of misplaced pride would be a disservice to the men and women of the armed forces. Such misguided pride would only harm our national interests, our safety and bleed our treasury.

As a first step in deescalating our engagement in Afghanistan we will cease offensive operations, including the use of unmanned drones. Although great care has been taken to minimize civilian casualties, we have deemed that the continued use of such drones would be counterproductive, as more civilian casualties will further undermine our credibility.

We hope these gestures, and others that will be forthcoming, will encourage some of the traditional tribal leaders to begin discussing the possibilities for national reconciliation and also rejects the use of their nation and tribal lands as a refuge for terrorists. Other sectors and leaders of the society, including the Taliban and religious leaders, will also need to choose between a path of internal war or a path toward peace, security and progress. We will assist this process as needed, but we have learned we cannot orchestrate it.

The result may not be what we would hope for, nor is it likely to bring equality for women in the near future. The recipe of individual freedom and equality cannot be installed by force. This too we have learned. Our own countries’ imperfect history shows that securing democratic and civil rights can be a long, painful process. Yet, the ideas of freedom and democracy are never suppressed for long. We stand ready to be of any non-military assistance to democratic-minded Afghans in this struggle.

Suspending offensive military operations and gradually reducing our military forces will allow us to divert part of what would have been spent on military operations to providing more effective economic assistance. Alleviating the desperate condition of people lives must become the goal of all leaders of Afghan society. Continuing to make war would be to fail. This is also a reason we are suspending our offensive military operations.

I ask for your support for this new and hopefully more fruitful course. My administration’s task to change course in Afghanistan will be very difficult and its success is dependent on many factors beyond our control. We hope the nations in the region will be helpful and we look forward to a dialogue with them as we move forward.

Our foremost thoughts should be with those men and women who when called to combat by their political and military leaders, responded with an unflinching commitment to our nation when they know it could lead to the ultimate sacrifice.

I thank you for your attentiveness and patience tonight.

"And he will fudge on Pakistan, since (short of starting yet another war) there's nothing he can do about their support of Al Qaeda and the Taliban."


A story in yesterday's Washington Post reports that a new initiative has been proposed in Pakistan, directed at their military, designed to sever the ties between the Pakistani military & insurgent groups.

We've heard the words before -- we'll see what actually happens.