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ERIC BLACK INK

Rasmussen MN guv poll trial matchups show toss-ups

By Eric Black | Published Fri, Mar 12 2010 8:43 am

The pollster Rasmussen Reports has polled a small (500) sample of likely Minnesota voters about various possible matchups for the wide-open 2010 race for governor and finds that it is indeed wide open.

Rasmussen matched the two likely Republican nominees (state Reps. Marty Seifert and Tom Emmer) against the three likeliest DFL nominees (Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Mpls. Mayor R.T. Rybak and former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton) and in all six matchup, did not show anyone holding a statistically significant lead over anyone. Rasmussen included likely Independence Party nominee Tom Horner in all of the matchups and Horner ranged from 7-10 percentage points in all of the trial heats.

Trial heats were also run with Horner and either Seifert or Emmer against three other DFLers -- state Sen. Tom Bakk, state Rep. Tom Rukavina and former state Rep. Matt Entenza -- and those matchups showed bigger leads for the two Repubs, but not enough bigger that you would want to attach much weight to a robo-dialed poll with a small sample taken this far in advance and including many candidates with varying levels of name recognition.

With those cautionary notes, if you want to look at all the trial heats, they're here.

Rasmussen (who according to Nate Silver tends to come up with the most Repub-leaning results of the five pollsters he studied) also checked out Obama's Minnesota approval/disapproval rating (49/49) and Minnesotans' support/opposition to the health care bill (42/53).

| Fri, Mar 12 2010 8:43 am | 9 Comments

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9 Comments: Hide/Show Comments

(#1) On March 12, 2010, Kevin Reichard says:

Feh. Rasmussen is pretty well known as a Republican operative masquerading as a polling firm. It consistently registers as an outlier in roundups of polls and should not be taken seriously by anyone.

(#2) On March 12, 2010, John E Iacono says:

What strikes me most is the high percentage of "Not Sure" choices in all matchups.

Depends in part, I'm sure, on what happens with health care and the summer national political winds.

(#3) On March 12, 2010, Jeff Goldenberg says:

I can understand at this stage running Dayton, Kelliher and Rybak as a "top three" based on their already-maxed-out name IDs. However, throwing Bakk and Rukavina in the mix and leaving out the strongest challenger to the DFL status quo seems remiss.

Paul Thissen is the clear alternative to more MAK and RT. Make sure Thissen is in the next round of match ups.

(#4) On March 12, 2010, Tom Horner says:

http://Horner2010.com

The survey reflects both my opportunity and challenge. On a positive note, my starting point is higher than the finishing point of most recent IP candidates. Given that the survey was taken when my campaign was only 3-4 weeks old, matching me against candidates who have been campaigning for a year-plus puts me at a disadvantage. Most importantly, the high number of undecided voters and the extremely high negatives/very soft support for the DFL and (especially) GOP candidates create the opening for me.

(#5) On March 12, 2010, Eric Ferguson says:

The poll was pretty worthless. Undecided was huge and the results didn't change when candidates changed, except lesser-known DFLers got a bit less support. They also left out Thissen and Marty, who have so far gotten more support than three Rasmussen asked about.

All the poll tells is us party loyalists are about even, few others have tuned in yet, and Dayton, Rybak, and Kelliher have better name recognition than the other Democrats.

Also, it seems odd Rasmusen asked about Horner but not other IP candidates.

(#6) On March 12, 2010, Richard Schulze says:

It is probably one of the best opportunities for the IP candidate in years. You've got two far right conservatives going into the GOP primaries. And more than likely a liberal candidate will represent the DFL.

I think the majority of the folks that vote are closer to the center than what the two choices offered by the two major parties will represent.

(#7) On March 12, 2010, Colleen Morse says:

http://www.aprilknight.blogspot.com

My money is on Mark Dayton. He's got the most experience in public service. He's the candidate who can best bring Minnesota back to its former glory.

(#8) On March 13, 2010, Paul Brandon says:

Paul Thissen has some impressive ideas, but minimal name recognition. John Marty has been around for years as a perpetual left wing candidate. Again, a lot of good ideas but little political strength outside of his own district.
Dayton has a lot of money and a good Minnesota name, but also a lot of baggage from his Senate career. He could still buy a good run, though. Never underestimate the power of money in politics.
That leaves Kelliher and Rybak as the best DFL bets. I'd say that Kelliher has a future ahead of her, but her main name recognition is in the Legislature among political insiders.
Rybak has the best name recognition and marketable experience as an executive.

(#9) On March 13, 2010, Richard Schulze says:

Great analysis Paul. Between Rybak and Kelliher, Rybak represents the closest candidate that the DFL can call a quasi-moderate.

With a strict conservative carrying the GOP banner. The near-middle will be the sweet spot. Perhaps this year the IP candidate will siphon off more from the strict conservative GOP candidate than a middle of the road DFL candidate. But only if the DFL runs a candidate that is as close to the center as Rybak. Rybak is a proven campaigner and does not carry the taint/baggage that Kelliher does from the previous budget debacle. If they choose a liberal its game, set match.
Four more years.....

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Eric Black is a former reporter for the Star Tribune and Twin Cities blogger. He writes about politics and government of Minnesota and the United States, the historical background of topics and other issues. Click here to view Eric's previous postings at former blog, Eric Black Ink. He can be reached at eblack [at] minnpost [dot] com.

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ERIC BLACK INK

Rasmussen MN guv poll trial matchups show toss-ups

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