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The 'Myths' of Vikings stadium mania

Very, um, entertaining story on the Vikings saga and NFL stadium building, by City Pages’ Tom Goldstein. Titled “The Case Against ‘The People’s Stadium’: Exposing Six Myths Propagated by the Mainstream Media,” Goldstein says: “What the Vikings don't talk about is why only an extravagant $830 [million] to $895 million facility (excluding infrastructure) will meet their current demands. ... NFL stadiums have skyrocketed in price over the past decade because no one other than club officials exerts control over the size and scope of a project. The team simply gives the prospective host community a price, then sits back and watches the elected officials scramble to find the money. … Twenty Fortune 500 companies are headquartered in Minnesota, and last year they produced revenues in excess of $439 billion. They include United Health Group, Target, Best Buy, 3M, Medtronic, and General Mills ... Given that it is these same corporations that lease the luxury suites, buy the premium seats, and overwhelmingly use sporting events to entertain clients or reward employees, why shouldn't they be expected to provide the cash to pay for the Vikings' new digs?  … Of course, today's business leaders are no dummies. They have no interest in padding the Vikings' bottom line. That's why their efforts, such as those of the reconvened Home Field Advantage group in Minneapolis, are focused on developing a uniform message that will allow the business community to ‘speak with one voice’ to the Legislature. … Building a stadium is also a terrible public investment, given that each full-time equivalent job would cost a staggering $475,000 to create — five times the much-criticized $93,000 per job cost of President Obama's stimulus plan ...  The reality is that there is minimal risk of losing the Vikings ..." Can I say I am just so surprised the Strib, in the interest objectivity and balance, hasn’t offered a similar piece.


After 11 years, it is time for a tax … I mean ... a fee ... increase. Dave Orrick of the PiPress says: “Minnesota adults would have to pay $5 more for a fishing license next year under a plan that cleared a Senate committee Tuesday ... Deer hunters would pay $4 more. The plan, which would affect most of the roughly 1.5 million anglers and 600,000 hunters who ply the state's woods and waters, is widely supported by hunting and fishing groups, as well as state wildlife officials, as a way to shore up an ailing fund that pays for fish stocking, wildlife management and other programs. It would be the first across-the-board increase to fishing and hunting license costs since 2001. The fee hike is needed for no smaller a cause than ‘for us to remain the greatest state in the nation,’ proclaimed former Minnesota Vikings coach Bud Grant.” Just curious — is Bud saying the same thing about a new stadium?

Speaking of “thuds,” the idea of tapping the Legacy Fund for the Capitol building’s $241 million facelift was kind of like 10 pounds of cow flop hitting the ground. Dennis Lien’s PiPress story says: “Minnesota's State Capitol needs a lot of work, and Rep. Mark Buesgens says he knows how to get the job done. Buesgens, R-Jordan, said Tuesday the arts and cultural heritage portion of Legacy Amendment funds should be diverted to paying for the needed restoration. He pitched two bills to the House Legacy Funding Division but didn't make much progress. With several panel members voicing skepticism, the body took no vote but left open the option of including either of the proposals in a larger bill that's being prepared. ‘The Capitol should be restored with traditional forms of funding,’ the panel's chair, Rep. Dean Urdahl, R-Grove City, said. ‘Bonding is my first choice.’ Buesgens cited recent comments from Gov. Mark Dayton calling on legislators to make ‘the most unselfish vote of your careers’ and provide funding for the Capitol restoration. Like Urdahl, however, Dayton said he favors bonding.”

Congressman Keith Ellison gets (deeper) into the Voter ID scrap with a commentary in the Strib: “[A] photo ID amendment in our state would put unnecessary burdens on Minnesotans to exercise their constitutional right to vote. It would also cost our state millions and drive up local property taxes as cities pay for the new restrictions. This is at a time when thousands are still out of work. What would photo ID really mean for Minnesotans? Let me put it into perspective. The number of people affected by this amendment would fill Target Field over 17 times. That includes 215,000 registered voters who don't have a Minnesota driver's license or ID card with a current address on it as well as 500,000 Minnesotans who use same-day voter registration, which would end as we know it.”

Over in Wisconsin, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel editorializes: “Monday's ruling by Dane County Circuit Judge Richard Niess spells out in compelling argument why Wisconsin's voter ID law is unconstitutional. The law, he essentially says, creates a new class of citizen who is barred from voting, those without the right form of state-mandated photo ID. That the Wisconsin Constitution does not allow, he says. That's not the final word — this one was always destined for the state Supreme Court — but Niess makes a good case. He also argues in passing that the law's restriction would fall disproportionately on those with the fewest resources to obtain an ID, a point made by Circuit Judge David Flanagan last week on Wisconsin's law and the U.S. Department of Justice in ordering Texas on Monday from enforcing its voter ID law. We think Niess got it exactly right, although we acknowledge, as does the judge, that voter ID in some form is constitutional. It's just that Wisconsin legislators went too far in constructing this measure.”

The Bloomberg story, by Andrew Harris and Seth Stern, says: “ ‘Voter fraud is no more poisonous to our democracy than voter suppression,’ Dane County, Wisconsin, Circuit Judge Richard Niess said in his ruling [Monday] barring enforcement of that state’s law. ‘Indeed they are two heads on the same monster.’ Signed by Walker in May, Wisconsin’s statute required voters to present government-issued photographic proof of identity such as a driver’s license, U.S. passport or an armed forces or college ID. … ‘We are confident the state will prevail in its plan to implement photo ID,’ Cullen Werwie, a spokesman for [Gov. Scott] Walker, said in an e-mailed statement. Werwie likened the measure to requirements to present a photo ID before obtaining cold medicine, public assistance or a public library card. The League of Women Voters, which filed one of four suits challenging the Wisconsin measure, in its own press statement disagreed. ‘Voting is not like cashing a check or getting on an airplane,’ state President Melanie Ramey said in the statement. ‘Those activities are not protected by the constitution.’ ”

Meanwhile … on a straight party-line vote: “After a short discussion Tuesday evening, the House Ways and Means Committee voted to approve a proposed amendment to the state constitution requiring each voter to show a photo ID at the polling place. The committee voted to approve the bill by an 18-12 margin, with Republicans supporting the bill and DFLers opposing it. The bill, which would submit the issue to state voters in November, now heads to the House Rules Committee. The sponsor, Rep. Mary Kiffmeyer, R-Big Lake, a former Secretary of State who managed the state's election system, dealt with skepticism from DFL members on the committee during a brief question-and-answer period. No public testimony was taken.” The story is Jim Ragsdale’s in the Strib.

Uhhhhh … on second thought. The Strib’s Rochelle Olson reports: “Ramsey County won't use garbage fees to buy polluted sites, despite an earlier push to do so. Commissioner Janice Rettman welcomed the change of plans. "Wiser heads prevailed," said Rettman, who came to Tuesday's County Board meeting with pages of questions. Draft language had been circulated to change the county's Solid Waste Master Plan to allow the county to use solid waste fees for acquisition, cleanup and redevelopment of land. Consumers pay the fees as part of their trash bills. The money now is used for waste disposal, but the fund has a surplus of $15 million. Rettman said polluters, not solid waste customers, should pay for the cleanup.”

Strib real-estate watcher Jim Buchta blogs about “reaching the bottom”: “My story today about improvements in the February housing market in the Twin Cities has a lot of folks wondering if the market has finally hit bottom. That’s a resounding ‘yes,’ according to one of the go-to-sites for real estate junkies and personal finance geeks. In a recent post, Calculated Risk makes a thoughtful argument about why the bottom is here. What’s more interesting than the prediction itself is an discussion of why there are actually two bottoms. ‘The first is for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. The second bottom is for prices. Sometimes these bottoms can happen years apart.’ ”

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Comments (18)

What mania?

The corporate lobby dominates our legislature these days yet is very disccrete about "stepping
up" to put a dime of their own into the Viking stadium game. All the major sports events that come here have pavilions (golf) and luxury boxes (tax-favored) that are almost medieval in scope.
The low information voter is set up for a long term fleecing and the Strib is part of this cabal.

Just wondering...

we're into the 2nd session now and I'm still waiting for Limbaugh Lite Dave Thompson and his Tea Party cronies to get around to creating jobs. Ya know, that "laser-like" focus.

see stadium bill

Dayton has said that's his jobs bill so you should be pulling for republicans to vote for it.

CSL "Reports"

I came across that CSL "report" last year when I was doing my research, their numbers appear to be fabricated. What's interesting is when you try find out how many jobs these guys currently sustain, no one can tell you, they either don't have the numbers, or they won't give them to you. There are currently 19 people working full time at the dome, but they have no idea how many other people work at the dome. This is hinky because you'd think if you were making a jobs argument you'd brag about how many jobs you currently provide, that's what NWA did when they asked for their public subsidy. These sports franchises don't want to produce those numbers for some reason. Interestingly, CSL's numbers are the only numbers Rybak and Dayton ever use when making their stadium deal pitches.

I may be in over my math head here, but I think that jobs estimate of 2,043 is high because it assumes the project would be completed in one year. In fact it will take 2-3 years which means you have 600-800 per year, or maybe even just 600-800 total. You have to factor the actual length of time into the equation but I admit I'm not quite sure how to do that.

Jobs estimate

I think I figured it out. The problem is to factor in the actual projected length of the project. City Pages took a Mortensen Construction estimate that 4.25 million work hours are projected for the stadium, and divided it by an years worth of full time equivalent- 2,080. They got 2,043 out of that. But the project will actually take two to three years, so the divisor should be 2,080 x 3 or 2 which gives you figures between 600 - 800 total FTEs. That's consistent with other estimates I've seen.

Jobs estimate

Paul:

I focused on one-year FTEs because it seemed like the easiest way to make the point that the job numbers were greatly exaggerated, but you are correct: the actual number of FTEs that would be created over 3 years is about 700. I tried to keep it simple because I wasn't sure if most people reading the story would understand the math as easily as you did. That's why I emphasized that, yes, there will be 7,500 "jobs" created if you consider the 567 hours on average per person to constitute a job as opposed to what it really is--short-term temporary employment. Of course, that hasn't stopped Gov. Dayton from touting the "thousands of jobs" that will be created, and many legislators simply parrot those details because they're beholden to the construction trades and want an excuse to support the stadium proposal in spite of all the other myths I cite in my article.

I should also mention that I don't work for City Pages. This was just a freelance piece..

Thanks or the clarification

Hey Tom,

Thanks for comment, and thank you for the article.

I've run into the same problem, I've been writing about this stupid stadium for over a year now, and the jobs question is the stickiest because there's no quick and easy way to sum it up, you just have to crack into the numbers and a writer worries that eyes will just gloss over and move on. This is a problem with the entire stadium issue actually, the whole thing is so massively bogus on so many levels it's hard to know where to start, and it's really hard to do in 900 or 1500 words or less.

Anyways, getting back to fun numbers, you realize that the 700 jobs numbers means we're actually spending close to a million dollars job, which nothing short of economic insanity as far as government stimulus is concerned.

Another factor is the loss of multiplier effect with such short term employment. The reason economists look for such smaller ratios ($4,000 per job in your article, and I've seen $40,000 elsewhere) is because high ratios mean a lot of short term employment jobs, in this case a little over 3 months on average. People don't go out and buy new cars, houses, big screen TVs, or plan vacations if they know they're only going to be working for 3 months or even less. As a general rule you want to provide 9 months to a years worth of employment. That's why real infrastructure is superior to stadiums as jobs creators. You can only build so many stadiums, but infrastructure never stops, it always needs repair, replacement, and expansion. In some ways these stadium projects can be considered anti-job programs from a government perspective because they represent a policy of starving infrastructure in order to build stadiums. We're putting almost ten times more into this stadium than the governor wants for his actual "jobs" program.

Push poll / Ellison

I got a call last to get my opinions on a stadium. The first question was which of 4 sites I preferred for the stadium. There wasn't an option for "I don't want one", but that was the only answer I was willing to give.

Thanks to Keith for the opinion piece in the Strib. He hits the nail on the head concerning the voter ID fiasco. If this passes, I will not show my ID at the polling place. I'll vote with a provisional ballot, and show up at the last possible hour to validate my ballot. If the GOP wants to turn MN elections into a circus, then show me to the center ring.

Do you know

Do you know how they'll know which vote is yours? I asked my state senator that. He didn't know (not surprising given that the amendment as written has no structure). Then I asked him whether it concerned him that someone will have to know which vote is whose. This seemed to concern him and he promised me that he'd look into it. He hasn't gotten back to me. Is it cynical that I think it's because someone told him not to ask those kinds of questions? Is it paranoia to think that linking votes to voters is considered by the authors and supporters of this amendment to be a good thing?

Wait for next session

There was a previous article that said that the author of the bill has generally answered those questions with: "Don't sweat the details. We'll figure those out in the next session when we do the enacting legislation." I hope he won't be around in the next session. Still, it's pretty sleazy to offer such a massive change to the voters without spelling out the details to at least a reasonable extent.

Over optimistic?

Something for legislators to bear in mind while considering the stadium bill, from Scientific American:

“pervasive optimistic bias” can be detrimental: “Most of us view the world as more benign than it really is, our own attributes as more favorable than they truly are, and the goals we adopt as more achievable than they are likely to be.” For example, only 35 percent of small businesses survive in the U.S. When surveyed, however, 81 percent of entrepreneurs assessed their odds of success at 70 percent, and 33 percent of them went so far as to put their chances at 100 percent.

From "How We Opt Out of Overoptimism: Our Habit of Ignoring What Is Real Is a Double-Edged Sword: The willful distortion of reality to extremes can be harmful", published March 14, 2012. Entire article available on-line.

Voter ID

The Republicans like to tell us that it's critical for strict identification standards to ensure we have no voter fraud. If prevention of corruption is so important, then they should be advocates for paper ballots being used throughout the state, since it is more difficult to alter paper ballots than voting machines tallies.

paper and photo ID

You're right about the importance of paper ballots, except we do have paper ballots throughout the state. The machine tallies are reported for initial tallies, but regardless of whether there's a recount, 5% of precincts are chosen at random for hand-counted audits. When you look at the fights other states have over paperless voting, and how to handle a recount after they already find themselves needing one, we do awfully well.

About voter ID, we already have voter ID for registering, aside from the small number who are vouched for by a registered voter. What we don't have is the photo ID requirement, which is why we count documentation like leases and utility bills as ID, something with the voter's address. That's why people who can't get a photo ID still get to vote under the current system. If they could get a photo ID, most presumably already would, but since they can't, that's how they get disenfranchised.

Even "photo ID" suggests the laws are more general than they've actually been implemented, since only certain photo IDs are accepted in states that have implemented it, like Ohio turns away veterans who have only their VA ID despite the photo, and Texas excludes student IDs despite the photo. I think Wisconsin will turn away students too if their law goes into effect.

It also turned out, according to the DOJ, that the "free" ID in Texas costs at least $22. In the modern version of separate-but-equal isn't equal, free photo IDs aren't free.

The Stadium

I wonder if the Star Tribune has had some second thought about the "People's Stadium" label. The ridicule has been pretty hot and heavy. Of course the proponents of the stadium are low balling the cost and high balling the revenue. It's all about getting to the first turning over of the first shovel of dirt. At that point, looking back will be forbidden, and the stadium will be immediately proclaimed the great success of the age.

Re: the hunting and fishing license increases

If you're going to tax the people, the best scenario is through voluntary taxation, which is what this is.

However, some questions need to be asked, such as ... given the shrinking number of hunters and fishermen every year, why does the DNR need more money to run their operation? What are their plans for all the new money? Maybe if they considered reorganizing and focusing on their original charter they'd find out they have plenty of money. Because with higher license fees, just like raising prices in any business, their potential customers may choose to go elsewhere.

Like where, Dennis?

A $4.00/$5.00 hike pales in comparison to the cost of obtaining an out of state license to hunt or fish from one of our neighboring states.

Shrinking number of hunters?

I don't think the number of issues the DNR must deal with is shrinking any more than the number of lakes and rivers. The logic of "...given the shrinking number of hunters and fishermen every year, why does the DNR need more money to run their operation..." is just about the same as figuring that a highway that has a lower relative traffic count need not be plowed every time we get a dump of snow or that a school with a slightly smaller student count than the previous year need only be heated to 50 degrees in January. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of assigning costs within a complex system.

I see

This must be the same logic as why the public school enrollments keep dropping year after year while their budgets keep going up. Complex system. Gotcha.