What “opponents”? MPR’s Brett Neely reports: “U.S. Sen. Al Franken is in “good shape for re-election” 18 months out from Election Day 2014 with approval ratings above 50 percent and a big leads over all of his potential opponents, according to the Democratic polling firm, Public Policy Polling. In a survey of 712 Minnesota voters from May 17-19, the firm found that Franken drew more than 50 percent support against all of his potential GOP rivals. The poll’s margin of error is 3.7 percent. … The firm polled Franken against McFadden, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, talk radio host Jason Lewis, state Sen. Julianne Ortman, state Sen. Julie Rosen and Hennepin County Sheriff Rich Stanek. With the exception of Bachmann, most of those potential candidates had limited name recognition with the public.” Is that a “Draft Gruenhagen” commotion I hear?

For the Strib, Kevin Diaz writes: “Among those tested by the Democratic polling firm was U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, who he leads 55-38, a 17 point margin. … Other findings from Minnesota:
• Minnesota voters support requiring background checks for all gun purchases by a 74-21 margin. …
• “It’s looking more and more like the damage Tim Pawlenty did to himself with his failed 2012 Presidential bid is going to prove to be permanent in Minnesota. Only 39 percent of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him compared to 50 percent with a negative one.”
• “Former U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman isn’t very popular in the state either, with a 37-39 favorability rating and 24 percent of voters having no opinion about him.” OK. If not Jason Lewis, how about Bob Davis?

Ramsey County didn’t like the price jump. In his PiPress story, Frederick Melo writes: “Ramsey County has alerted the city of St. Paul that it is filing for a divorce of sorts when it comes to joint purchasing. The city office that handles the procurement of everything from pens and pencils to sand and vehicles has also managed Ramsey County’s purchases since the early 1960s, a marriage that seemed to work well for decades. The good times are over. The Ramsey County Board voted Tuesday, May 21, to hire three new buyers and an administrative worker by the end of year. The county is gradually divesting from the city’s Contract and Analysis Services office by 2014 and moving procurement in-house. ‘The cost was prohibitive. We’re talking about 50 percent increases over a couple of years,’ said board Chairman Rafael Ortega, who noted the vote was 6-0. City officials see the change creating a costly duplication of efforts, for unknown savings.”

I thought for sure it was another HomeDepot/Panera/O’ReillyAutoParts/Wendy’s/Applebee’s Plaza … . But Mary Divine of the PiPress says it’s just … dirt: “The dirt being moved onto the Bergmann property at the northeast corner of Manning Avenue and Minnesota 36 in Stillwater Township isn’t a sign of a pending development deal. It’s just dirt. Developer Denny Trooien said Mathiowetz Construction Company of Sleepy Eye, Minn, recently contacted him and asked if they could dump up to 150,000 cubic yards of fill on his property. He would not disclose how much he is getting paid to receive the dirt. Trooien, owner of Dennis Properties and Crescent Development, owns 50 acres on what is called the ‘Gateway’ site. Twenty adjacent acres are owned by Paul Bergmann, who continues to run a greenhouse and nursery business. The dirt is coming from the Minnesota Department of Transportation construction site at Hilton Trail and Minnesota 36. ‘They’ve got a whole bunch of excess dirt that they have to get rid of in connection with that intersection construction project, and they needed someplace to put it,’ Trooien said.”

The GleanBurning restrictions have been lifted up north. The AP says: “The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources has lifted fire restrictions in all or parts of 32 Minnesota counties as wet weather lowers the fire danger. The restrictions were lifted at 9:30 a.m. Tuesday. The counties are scattered across roughly the northern two-thirds of Minnesota. Restrictions remain in Cook, Kittson, Koochiching, Lake, Lake of the Woods, Marshall, Pennington, Roseau, northern St. Louis and northern Beltrami counties. The DNR expects those restrictions will be lifted soon.”

It’s always the details … Jason Stein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports: “Requiring a job — or basic training for one — from able-bodied participants in the state’s food stamp program would cause about half of them to drop out, a total of tens of thousands of people statewide and 14,500 in Milwaukee, according to a new report. The new projections come from the Legislature’s nonpartisan budget office, which last week released its analysis of Gov. Scott Walker’s plan to require 62,700 able-bodied adults without children in Wisconsin’s FoodShare program to work or attend bare-bones job training. The Legislative Fiscal Bureau puts the cost of implementing the program at $35.8 million over two years, including $16.8 million for state taxpayers, and the rest by federal taxpayers. … In 2012, FoodShare benefits totaled nearly $1.2 billion and went to more than 1 million people in Wisconsin — adults who were able-bodied, adults who were not able-bodied, children and seniors. Benefits average about $191 per month for able-bodied adults. As Walker’s proposal is fully implemented, it would cost taxpayers an additional $19 million over the 2015-’17 budget. The key is that training needs to continue to be provided.”

Meanwhile, on this side of the line … . David Peterson of the Strib writes: “The Brookings Institution on Monday released a study ranking the Twin Cities area among the nation’s top 10 major metropolitan areas for the speed at which suburban poverty is rising. Its analysis says the number of suburban Minnesotans living in poverty more than doubled between 2000 and 2011. Although it won’t be part of the public release, analysts at the Washington, D.C., think tank say Shakopee and Apple Valley head the list of outer-ring suburbs seeing sharp rises in poverty numbers. Both places permitted wave upon wave of townhouse construction during the housing boom — nearly 2,000 units between the two of them from 2000 to 2005, according to the Metropolitan Council. … People offering services speak of startling turnouts. On Mother’s Day weekend, cars lined up for two blocks when a Lakeville church, Spirit of Joy, offered free oil changes to single moms. Hundreds assemble on Saturdays when a Burnsville church distributes food.”

The Strib is not pleased with Minneapolis Police Chief Janee Harteau. In an editorial, it says: “Two Minneapolis police officers were shot and two young men died following a police chase in the city’s Uptown area. The tragic events of May 10 left the community with questions about what happened and how the investigation was being conducted. … the delays in releasing information on the Uptown incidents cast doubt. Why did it take five days or longer to take testimony from the officers directly involved? Why did a recent Star Tribune news story have to rely on sources other than the chief for an account of the events? That information, especially when civilian deaths are involved, should come in a timely manner directly from police administration.”

Get your pre-orders in … Aaron Rupar at City Pages reports on a bodice-ripper featuring Our Favorite Congresswoman: “[S]he’s moved author Trey Sager to write Fires of Siberia, ‘an old-fashioned bodice ripper romance’ that’s ‘inspired by the life of Tea Party leader and Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.’ A press release provides a synopsis of the book, which will be available online June 1:

Presidential candidate Danielle Powers, full of firebrand pluck and red state sex appeal, has the country in a tizzy. But on an international tour to beef up her foreign policy experience, disaster ensues — her plane explodes over Siberia. Miraculously, Danielle survives, along with one other passenger a mysterious stranger named Steadman Bass. Trapped in a wilderness of snow and ice, the two begin a journey that pushes Danielle to the brink. There she must confront her deepest self and choose between civilization and a wild, primitive ecstasy. All the while, Steadman harbors a terrible secret that threatens to destroy them both.”

Spoiler alert. Steadman voted for Obamacare.

Join the Conversation

12 Comments

  1. Spoiler alert? More like monitor alert!

    Because you just made me spew coffee all over mine!

  2. The politics of polling

    Once again the media establishment has jumped on a poll by a Democratic polling outfit to promote the upcoming re-election of former joke writer Al Franken. Those of us with gray hair and a good memory are well aware of the absurdity and shenanigans of Minnesota polling, which goes back well over 40 years.

    Take, for example, the 1969 mayor’s race between Minneapolis police captain Charlie Stenvig and Minneapolis city council members Dan Cohen and Jerry Hegstrom. At that time, city elections were held in May. Traditionally, the Minneapolis Tribune ran an opinion poll before the mayoral election but that year it did not because polling showed law-and-order candidate Stenvig was going to win, which he did.

    In the 1978 race for governor, the Minnesota Poll final pre-election poll had DFLer Rudy Perpich winning by four point. He lost to Republican Al Quie by seven percentage points. Anyone interested can look up a back copy of the St. Paul Pioneer Press around that time to learn of the polling shenanigans involving that memorable election.

    A check of Minnesota Poll results of U. S. Senate and Governor races since then reveal that Republican candidates almost always do better in the final result than the Minnesota Poll’s pre-election tally indicated they would.

    If I were Al Franken, I would remain very concerned. The very articulate and very knowledgeable radio talk show host Jason Lewis will give him a very good run.

    1. PPP

      While I appreciate your discussion of polling of elections that occurred 35 and 44 years ago, I would think that more recent election polling would be more relevant. In a study of final polls for the 2012 presidential election, PPP (the polling company currently used by the Star Tribune) was actually the most accurate pollster.

      http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/study-ppp-most-accurate-pollster-of-2012-rasmussen-and-gallup-among-least-accurate/

      In a more comprehensive study done by Nate Sliver, PPP was found to be in the middle of the pack, but actually overrepresented Republican support.

      http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/

      As to Jason Lewis, I’ll just offer up this Minnpost story from a few years back.

      http://www.minnpost.com/eric-black-ink/2011/05/jason-lewis-gays-already-have-equal-right-marry-someone-opposite-sex

      I hope that isn’t what passes for knowledgeable and articulate these days.

  3. A recent demonstration of PPP’s accuracy

    Nate Silver not withstanding, this is the same polling outfit that had Democratic candidate Elizabeth Colbert Busch leading Republican Mark Sanford by nine points in a South Carolina Congressional race Sanford won 54-45 percent a mere two weeks later. In other words, Public Policy Polling, well known for its Democratic bias, was only off 18 points in an election held May 7, 2013. Let’s see: subtract 9 from Franken’s 55 and add 9 to Bachman’s 38. Hmm. Hello Sen. Bachman.

    1. PPP

      You forgot to mention that PPP conducted another poll in that race right before the election, which showed that in the two weeks, Sanford had closed that gap and taken the lead.

      http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/05/sanford-has-momentum-in-sc-1.html

      I don’t know what you mean by it is “known” that PPP has a Democratic bias. The links I provided showed that PPP was either the most accurate, or had a Republican bias. PPP did miss the final number, but it did document the late surge by Sanford. A lot can happen in two weeks, especially the last two weeks before an election.

      On the other hand, I don’t know why I’m explaining how polling works to people who think Jason Lewis and Michelle Bachmann are viable candidates. Al Franken would probably like nothing more than to have the Republicans nominate Bachmann. So never mind – all those polls that say Bachmann is really unpopular are just biased. She’s the best candidate. Go nominate her.

  4. Al vs Jason

    I hope these polls encourage Jason Lewis to take on Al Franken. It would be good for more people to hear how far off the right wing deep end Jason can go. I would pay good money to watch them debate. Al would rip Jason apart once and for all.

  5. Need help from Jeff & John

    What was the rest of the title of Al’s book that started out with “Lies”? I’m sure you’ll both know it.

  6. Public Policy Polling leaning

    Wikipedia: PPP is described as one of the “most accurate” polling companies[3][4] and as a “Democratic-leaning”[5] polling company because in its private client work, it conducts polls only for Democratic campaigns and progressive organizations.

    Source: ^ 5 Silver, Nate (June 22, 2012). “Calculating ‘House Effects’ of Polling Firms”. New York Times. Retrieved 18 August 2012.

  7. How bias pollsters operate

    Those who point to how close some polls are at the finish simply don’t understand how biased pollsters work. Those of us who have been involved with Minnesota elections for decades always chuckle at how well liberal candidates do in August and September (which enables them to attract more volunteers and raise money) when polls are over represented by Democrat or liberal voters.

    The percentage of voters for liberal candidates in the polling sample invariably shrinks as election day nears so polling operators such as PPP can try and maintain some degree of credibility.

    I like that Sen. Bachmann designation. I think she is a leader who can easily overcome the personal front page vendetta the Star Tribune continues to wage against her. She certainly is funnier than Sen. Al ever was.

  8. You’re funny..

    Talk amongst those of us who actually live in the 6th is whether or not she’ll survive here. You want her to run statewide?! I guess you still think the only thing drawing liberals to elections is the president huh? Please, please put one of your tea party lightning rods up for both the Senate seat and the Governorship, you could do nothing more to guarantee your stay in the wilderness lasts at least until 2016.

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