Today is the day that I've been waiting for since the last Winter Olympics (Torino Italy) back in 2006. I grew up a hockey player and living in Minnesota all my life, I've come to love a number of other winter sports, so these next 15 days of sporting events is going to be a treat. Think about it... how many times can you see the some of the best athletes from around the globe compete for their country. It truly is an uplifting event that can take your mind off of the mundane, day to day, tasks that one goes through. Step back for a moment - enjoy the camaraderie , competition and the Canadian hospitality. Vancouver is a beautiful place with some of most interesting weather on Earth. Note, Whistler had a record 220" of snow in the month of November and should remain in the 'snow' during the games, but Vancouver just went through the warmest January on record with an average temperature of 44.9 degrees. How strange is that? For the first time in Olympic history, you will witness an opening and closing ceremony indoors because of the fear of rain. Daytime high temperatures will hover in the upper 40's to low 50's during the Olympic games with rain showers - don't be surprised when you here the commentators talking about rare rain showers during the Olympic events... Vancouver is a harbor city next to an ocean, so the climate is mild even in winter. In fact, Vancouver's average February temperature of 4.8 degrees Celsius and is the warmest city to ever host a Winter Olympics. By the way, 4.8 degrees Celsius is around 40 degrees Fahrenheit.


A Few Numbers/Conversions to Remember During the Olympics:

Now you can convert from Centigrade to Fahrenheit with these quick references...
10 degrees Celsius = 50 degrees Fahrenheit
0 degrees Celsius = 32 degrees Fahrenheit
-10 degrees Celsius = 14 degrees Fahrenheit

Also, remember that every 1 degree Celsius = 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.


Minnesota Twins and Canada Native, Justin Morneau, Carried Olympic Torch Yesterday @ 3:45 CST
You can watch the LIVE Olympic Torch Relay coverage here

Interestingly, once the Olympic Torch reaches Vancouver, British Columbia, it will have traveled nearly 28,000 miles and have become the longest traveled torch relay in a single country history.


In Our Neck of the Woods
Flurries and light snow showers will be possible the next couple of days, but it appears the heaviest of the snow from the next (Canadian) Alberta Clipper will be in southwestern Minnesota:


Temperatures will fall slightly behind this next clipper system, but just a few degrees. Our high temperatures over the next 5 to 7 days will hover in the mid 20's, slightly below average. I still don't see any big warm ups or Arctic outbreaks in the near future. I do, however, see the sunshine in the extended forecast, which is much stronger now than it was just a few weeks ago. Go ahead, step outside for a few second when the sun is shining brightly... I guarantee you'll notice a dramatic difference in the intensity of the sun and I bet those few seconds in the sun will last, perhaps, for a few minutes. You may even get a hint of spring fever (I know I did).


Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a few flurries and scattered light snow showers. No accumulation expected. High 24

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Perhaps a flurry or two. Low: 8

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. A little light snow, accumulations likely in southwest MN. High 24

Sunday: Cupid sightings possible. Lingering clouds and flurries? High 21

Monday (Presidents' Day): Mix of clouds and sun with a flake or two. High: 22

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, slightly warmer. High: 23

Wednesday: Looking bright, slightly below normal temps. High: 25

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 26

Just for a moment, imagine yourself having to shovel and scoot around town after just going through two major winter storms with as much as 4 feet of fresh snow just under a weeks time. Also imagine the second storm blowing the new snow around at 50mph to 60mph into 10 foot snow drifts! Wouldn't that be something? I have to admit, after watching live coverage of the events unfolding out east yesterday, I was a little jealous to see such an extreme weather event. At times, blizzard conditions dropped visibilities to just a few feet for places around the Megalopolis of Baltimore, Washington D.C., New York and Philadelphia. Speaking of which, those locations just set the all-time snowiest seasons on record after this latest storm.

Records Fall This Winter Season
Take a gander at some of these impressive numbers. Note that D.C. and Baltimore have had a snowier winter than St. Cloud; Duluth; Buffalo, NY and Anchorage, AK so far this season.

Baltimore Washington International Airport as of yesterday afternoon had seasonal snow total a little over 72" beating the old record of 62.5" set in 1995-96. Records go back to 1893.

Washington Dulles International Airport as of Tuesday had a seasonal snow total of 63.5" beating the old record of 61.9" set in 1995-96.

Washington Reagan National Airport as of yesterday afternoon topped the snowiest season on record of 54.4" which was previously set in 1898-99.

Philadelphia International Airport as of yesterday evening, recorded 14" of new snow putting their seasonal snow total at 70.3" and above the snowiest season on record of 65.5" previously set in 1995-96

Proof in Pictures





Storm on Satellite


Closer to Home

We remain quiet through the day today, but clouds will be increasing this afternoon in advance of our next clipper system. Waking up tomorrow there may be a light coating of fluff on the ground, but it'll be pretty minor. Flurries and light snow chances will continue Friday and early Saturday before we clear out on Valentine's Day Sunday. The image below shows the potential snowfall through Saturday.



Looking ahead, temperatures will hover in the mid 20's for daytime highs next week. I don't see any major cold snaps or dramatic heat waves in the extended forecast. I'll keep peering into the crystal ball... until then, have a good Thursday.


Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Thursday: Chilly start. Increasing clouds, a few flurries possible late. High: 19

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a little light snow and not as cold. Low: 10

Friday: Mostly cloudy with light snow showers. High 25

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, a little light snow. High 25

Sunday: Cupid sightings possible, more sunshine. High 23

Monday (Presidents' Day): Threat of a mostly blue sky. High: 24

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, slightly warmer. High: 24

Wednesday: Looking bright, slightly below normal temps. High: 25

A quick story for you... Yesterday, I was surfing the web, looking at the latest snow totals across Minnesota when I heard my SKYPE phone ring and who was it? It was my grandmother who called to verbally and visually complain to me about how she dislikes all this snow we've been getting. She asked if I could do something about it because she was sick of shoveling. First of all, I can't believe that my grandmother is still insists on shoveling her driveway at her age and secondly, I can't believe my grandmother knows how to SKYPE. How cool is that! I give her a lot of credit for doing the things she does. She has never had her drivers license, forcing her to walk to the grocery store, to church every Sunday and to her many different community volunteering events, even during the bitterly cold Minnesota winter days. You go Gramma, keep it up!

Our multi-day storm started on Sunday and wrapped up early Tuesday, which gave the MSP Airport officially 5.6" putting us 1.3" above normal snowfall for the season. The range across the metro was around 4" to 5" on the northeast side to as much as 8" to 11" on the southwest side. The biggest snowfall report I saw was 11.5" 9 miles SW of Starbuck in Pope county. Take a look at the snowfall map and other snowfall reports below.

Storm Total Snowfall Map


Storm Total Snowfall Reports

...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

WE THANK OUR COOP AND COCORAHS OBSERVERS...TRAINED SPOTTERS AND
PARTNERS FOR THE FOLLOWING PRELIMINARY STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS.


SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
11.50 9 SW STARBUCK MN POPE 0949 AM
11.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0515 PM
11.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0800 AM
10.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0645 AM
10.00 NEW MARKET MN SCOTT 0728 PM
9.80 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0922 AM
9.80 LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM
9.70 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0800 AM
9.70 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0800 AM
9.50 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0812 AM
9.50 3 N KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0800 AM
9.50 3 SE ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0800 AM
9.50 MINNETRISTA MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM
9.50 MEDINA MN HENNEPIN 0755 AM
9.30 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0808 AM
9.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0812 AM
9.00 3 SSW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0515 PM
9.30 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0800 AM
9.10 1 E OWATONNA MN STEELE 0800 AM
8.80 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0800 AM
8.50 1 W HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0800 AM
8.40 RAMSEY MN ANOKA 0922 AM
8.30 WACONIA MN CARVER 0800 AM
8.20 1 SSW JORDAN MN SCOTT 0800 AM
8.10 2 NE BUFFALO MN WRIGHT 0800 AM
8.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0932 AM
8.00 WELLS MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
8.00 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0800 AM
8.00 KIESTER MN FARIBAULT 0720 AM
7.80 3 ENE MONTGOMERY MN RICE 0800 AM
7.80 1 SSW LONSDALE MN RICE 0800 AM
7.80 1 SE HENDERSON MN LE SUEUR 0800 AM
7.50 RENVILLE MN RENVILLE 0828 AM
7.50 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0934 AM
7.50 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
7.50 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 0743 AM
7.30 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0638 AM
7.00 DASSEL MN MEEKER 0800 AM
7.00 1 W CARVER MN CARVER 0800 AM
7.00 3 ENE SILVER CREEK MN WRIGHT 0414 PM
6.80 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0452 AM
6.70 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 1039 AM
6.70 5 NW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM
6.60 ST PETER MN NICOLLET 0800 AM
6.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0713 AM
6.50 RAMSEY MN ANOKA 0607 PM
6.40 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0848 AM
6.40 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0800 AM
6.20 ST CLOUD SCSU MN STEARNS 0800 AM
6.20 NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0842 AM
6.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0800 AM
6.00 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
5.60 MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL APT MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
5.50 SLEEPY EYE MN BROWN 0849 AM
5.50 MELROSE MN STEARNS 0800 AM
5.50 5 W ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0800 AM
5.50 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0743 AM
5.50 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0650 AM
5.40 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0745 AM
5.10 4 SE RED WING MN GOODHUE 0800 AM
5.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0742 AM
5.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
4.50 ELK RIVER MN SHERBURNE 0800 AM
4.50 3 WSW PRINCETON MN SHERBURNE 0800 AM
4.50 2 SSW CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0629 AM
4.20 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0800 AM
4.20 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0800 AM
4.20 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0800 AM
4.00 3 ESE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
4.00 1 N ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0800 AM
4.00 2 NNW COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0800 AM
3.80 1 NW COTTAGE GROVE MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
3.50 1 ESE MILROY MN REDWOOD 0800 AM
2.80 7 NNW OGILVIE MN KANABEC 1111 AM
2.00 DURAND WI PEPIN 0800 AM
2.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0800 AM
1.80 1 NE LAKELAND SHORES MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
1.60 3 NE RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0800 AM
1.40 CHIPPEWA FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
1.40 AUGUSTA WI EAU CLAIRE 0800 AM
1.10 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
1.10 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0600 AM
1.00 CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0800 AM
1.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM

Cold and Quiet Until Friday
The next two days will be rather quiet as a cold Canadian high sinks south of the international border. Temperature readings will drop below normal and overnight lows will dip into the sub-zero range again Thursday morning. The cold air is dry, so there will be plenty of sunshine. Don't forget the shades as you head out the door, that fresh snow will be darn bright and since we haven't seen the sun in a few days, it'll seem even brighter. Our next snow chance doesn't swing in until Friday and Saturday. A light coating of fluff may be possible then, but that Alberta Clipper could swerve around us like Lindsay Vonn cutting around the last gate before the finish line on her way to her 4th Gold Medal of the 2010 Winter Olympics, so we'll keep an eye on it. Tune in tomorrow for weather facts about the Olympic games and the 2010 host city Vancouver, Canada.


Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Wednesday: Cold sunshine. High: 18

Wednesday Night: Clear, calm and quiet... COLD too. Low: -1

Thursday: Chilly start. Increasing clouds, light snow developing late. High: 20

Friday: Mostly cloudy with light snow showers. High 24

Saturday: Partly sunny, light snow possible. High 26

Sunday: Partly cloudy and quiet. High 21

Monday (Presidents' Day): Threat of a mostly blue sky. High: 23

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, slightly warmer. High: 26

The good, the bad and the ugly... The good news is that we freshened up that snow pack out there. The fluffy snow will be great for any outdoor activities that you have planned this week that involves snow f- skiing, snowmobiling, sledding, snow angels, etc. (let me know if you have any other activities that begin with the letter "S") - get out there and enjoy it before it's gone, we all know the weather can change rapidly around here. The bad news is that our commute will likely be slow and white-knuckleish for one more day. The afternoon drive will be much better than the slippery drive in to work or school. Hang in there, it'll be much better tomorrow. The ugly side to most every winter storm is the bitter blast after the fact, that too will come to reality, but we're not expecting readings like what we had back in early January - WHEW! It'll be cold, but not terribly cold. Attention getting? Yes. By Wednesday and Thursday morning, you'll have no doubt that it's still winter. Here, take a look at the statewide low temperatures over the next couple of days - BRR!

Low Temps on Wednesday:


Low Temps on Thursday


Fresh Snow Aids Cooling Conditions
Take a look a the images below, they explain why it tends to be so much colder after a newly laid snow pack. Not only is it just plain old cold, but "Albedo" has a big impact the surface temperatures by reflecting sunlight back to space. Fresh snow is one of the highest natural reflecting surfaces causing temperatures to much colder than they otherwise would be.

You may have to study this graphic a little to understand it:

Here's a table that might help out:


Here's proof of the fresh snow - take a look at SOME of the snowfall reports across the state, which are still coming in:

Looking Ahead

Sunshine and colder temperatures will rule mid-week, a slight chance of light snow slides in on Friday and a faintly noticeable warming trend will follow into the somewhat sunnier weekend. Here's the specific extended forecast below.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Tuesday: Scattered light snow showers gradually ending, light coating possible. High: 18

Tuesday Night: Becoming partly cloudy and cold. Low: 4

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and chilly. High: 17

Thursday: Mix of clouds and sun, quiet. High: 18

Friday: Partly sunny, slight chance of light snow. High 23

Saturday: Partly cloudy, minor set back in the temperature department. High 20

Sunday: Partly cloudy and warmer. High 23

Monday: Threat of a mostly blue sky. High 25

Here's the latest winter weather headlines from the National Weather Service

Winter Storm Warning

...LONG LASTING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.A TWO TO TWO AND A HALF DAY SNOWFALL EVENT...WITH SOMECOMMUNITIES EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...WILLIMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THELENGTHY DURATION OF THE SNOW...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS THELIKELIHOOD TO PRODUCE A BROAD SWATH OF SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 11INCHES OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD. THE LARGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO11 INCHES...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM NEAR ALEXANDRIA ANDMORRIS...SOUTHWARD TO LITCHFIELD AND WILLMAR...TO MANKATO...ALBERTLEA AND FAIRMONT. THE WEST SIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO WILL ALSOBE IN THE PATH OF SOME OF THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. THE REMAINDER OFTHE AREA...INCLUDING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND EAST CENTRALMINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL SEE 4 TO 7 INCHES OFSNOW.

EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SPREAD FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTOCENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITYON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW MAY NOT DEVELOPOVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAYMORNING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THEDAKOTAS BY EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSSIOWA AND INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT IS THE PRIMEREASON OF THE LONG DURATION SNOWFALL AND THE HEAVIER TOTALAMOUNTS.

NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WESTCENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHEASTACROSS THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILLLIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH WOULDCAUSE TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO FURTHER DETERIORATE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OFCENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.THIS INCLUDES ALEXANDRIA...LITCHFIELD...LITTLE FALLS...WILLMAR...MORRIS...THE WESTERN TWIN CITIES...AND SOUTHWARD TOMANKATO...ALBERT LEA AND FAIRMONT. THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 94CORRIDOR AND PARTS OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ANDEAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.THIS INCLUDES CANBY...MADISON...ONAMIA...CAMBRIDGE...FORESTLAKE...BALSAM LAKE...NEW RICHMOND...AND DURAND.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND LIKELY EXPANSION OF WARNINGSON THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.

Updated Winter Weather Advisory Map


The latest computer runs have brought lighter amounts of precipitation into the area, but still puts the heaviest of the slowly accumulating snow just southwest of the I-94 corridor. Total accumulations from Sunday through late Tuesday will likely be around the 4" to 6" mark in the Twin Cities area with lighter amounts on the northeast side of town and heavier amounts on the west and southwestern side of town. Some spots on the south side of the I-94 corridor from Alexandria to Rochester could still see 6" plus through Tuesday evening.


To reiterate, this snow will not be a quick hitting event like the one that crippled the Mid-Atlantic states over the weekend. Rather, this will be a slow and steady event, which you will likely be able to stay on top of shoveling-wise. The commutes both today and tomorrow will not be great, but plan accordingly and drive slowly and all should be good.


Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Monday: Cloudy with light snow showers likely, an additional 1" to 3" or so possible. High: 24

Monday Night: Light snow continues, an additional 1" or 2". Low: 15

Tuesday: Scattered light snow showers gradually ending, light coating possible. High: 18

Wednesday: Becoming partly cloudy. Chilly. High: 17

Thursday: Partly cloudy, slightly warmer. High: 18

Friday: Partly sunny, slight chance of light snow. High 22

Saturday: Partly cloudy, minor set back in the temperature department. High 18

Sunday: Partly cloudy and warmer. High 22

I have to admit, I was a little faked out yesterday. I thought for a VERY brief moment that I saw lightning in the distance, but quickly noticed fireworks above the bare treetops, not an all too common site for February, but when you 'think' you see lightning in the middle of winter when the air temperature is around 20 degrees, you know you have a serious case of SDS or "Supercell Deprivation Syndrome" - it's a pretty legit syndrome that many in the storm chaser community go through ever winter at about this time, though, for some... it sets in much sooner. See here if you suffer from SDS- thanks to www.texastailchasers.com for that write-up.

Today is a big day... Yes, get ready for Puppy Bowl VI complete with a kitten half time show! If you're still sulking about the Vikings loss, the Puppy Bowl might be just as exciting as the Super Bowl this year. For the rest of you who can stomach Miami, FL without the purple and gold present - you should be in for a good show. Indianapolis Colts take on the New Orleans Saints at 6:25pm ET with the Colts the favorite by a field goal. I guess I'll go with Who Dat by a field goal in OT.


Olympic-Size Snow in DC
Take a look at the picture below of Bethesda, MD where at least 20" of snow fell across a great deal of the Mid-Atlantic States. Hundreds of thousands of people are without power and transportation came to a near stand-still. All flights from Reagan National and Dulles were canceled "Until further notice" on Saturday. Here are some snowfall reports from earlier on Saturday in the DC area where 20" to 30" amounts were very common.



Significant Snow Potential for Central MN
Here's the latest Winter Weather Headlines from the National Weather Service for the the Twin Cities:

Winter Storm Watch

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.A LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LONG DURATION OF SNOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE TWO DAY PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NEAR ALEXANDRIA AND LITTLE FALLS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ALTHOUGH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SNOW WILL BE PRODUCED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH  THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO INTENSIFY A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA...AND THESE FEATURES WILL WORK IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH WILL CAUSE TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO FURTHER DETERIORATE.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MONTEVIDEO TO LITCHFIELD AND ALONG AND WEST OF A LITCHFIELD...TO SAINT CLOUD...TO LITTLE FALLS LINE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR FROM SAINT CLOUD TO  ALEXANDRIA.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35... AND INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF HUTCHINSON...THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA....AND SAINT PETER. FINALLY...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEW ULM...TO MANKATO...TO OWATONNA LINE. THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL TRACK...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL OCCUR. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.

Here's a quick gander at how much snow could pile up over the next few days (thru Tuesday) - note the heaviest of the snow setting up show over the I-94 corridor. Keep in mind that this will not be a quick hitting snow, rather a long duration snow event where snow amounts will likely pile up to more than inconvenient levels if you don't stay on top of the situation. However, Monday morning commute is sure to be a white knuckle event, so plan ahead.




Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Sunday: Flurries and light snow showers developing, about 1/2" of powder possible late in the day. High: 26

Tonight: Steadier light snow developing, another 1" to 2" possible overnight. Low: 19

Monday: Cloudy with light snow showers likely, an additional 1" to 3" or so possible. Additional light accumulations likely overnight. High: 24

Tuesday: Scattered light snow showers gradually ending, light coating possible. High: 21

Wednesday: Decreasing clouds, becoming partly cloudy and chilly. High: 19

Thursday: Partly cloudy, slightly warmer. High: 20

Friday: Partly sunny, a little warmer yet. High 23

Saturday: Partly cloudy, minor set back in the temperature department. High 20

Lately it seems that most (but not all) of our Minnesota winters have been neutered. De-fanged. Immunized against old-fashioned, tire-spinning, headline-grabbing, school-closing, water-cooler-bragging snowstorms. When it snows now (with a few notable exceptions, like the Christmas Day storm) it tends to be in dribs and drabs: an inch here, 2 or 3 sloppy inches there. While Washington D.C. is bracing for a cool foot (or two) of new snow by Saturday evening WE are under a winter weather advisory for a MIX of rain, ice and snow. To make matters worse we had an air pollution advisory yesterday. Wait: rain, ice and smog in early February - in Minnesota? What have we become: Sacramento? Even the alleged experts can't say (with anything approaching 100% certainty) that big, wet, sloppy storms detouring well south of Minnesota much of the winter is a symptom of El Nino. It is consistent with an El Nino winter, when storms tend to be pushed farther south, resulting in cooler, stormier conditions for the deep south and east coast, while the northern tier states trend drier (and milder). The milder part is still very much up in the air. The Climate Center folks at NOAA are convinced that February will wind up warmer than normal, and for that matter so will the next 3 months, through the end of April. I'm not convinced, not yet. Looking out the next 2 weeks or so temperatures will run a good 10 degrees below average, nothing even remotely resembling a real warm front is shaping up through the third week of February. Spring fever? Give it 8 weeks, minimum. Of COURSE it will inevitably snow on the new Twins outdoor stadium, and that (in turn) will make national news, which will just reinforce the old, tired image of Minnesota as a frozen wasteland frequented by Prince and Garrison Keillor. That in turn will keep our population stable and prevent us from becoming "L.A with lakes", which is a very good thing for all of us. Just a theory. We'll see.


One Mixed-Up Map. Over 16" for Baltimore and Washington, maybe 1-2" for the Twin Cities, 2-3" for St. Cloud, over 6" for far western Minnesota and much of North Dakota.

The Stormy Details. Check out the latest watches, warnings, advisories from NOAA, winter weather advisories for much of Minnesota, but full blown winter storm warnings from Indianapolis to Columbus, Philadelphia and Washington D.C. Blizzard warnings are posted for Delaware and much of New Jersey for near white-out conditions late tonight and Saturday. For the latest (clickable) watches and warnings, click here for an interactive map from NOAA.

We're just getting brushed, side-swiped by the mega-storm now churning toward Washington D.C., where 27" of snow has already piled up - that number will be closer to 40" by Sunday. How did that happen? A sloppy inch or two is possible today, expect a white-knuckle morning commute, but the steadiest snow should taper off a bit for the drive home later today. Freeways that have been successfully treated by MnDOT should be mostly wet and slushy, but watch the side streets and alleys - they may be snow-covered and very icy. A push of drier air approaching from the Great Lakes will cause flurries to taper Saturday, but a southbound cold front whips up another period of light, powdery snow Sunday as temperatures fall through the 20s - I could see an inch, maybe 2" in a few towns. It still looks cold the first half of next week, not quite as numbing as it appeared yesterday at this time. Let's just say the Groundhog had the right idea. 6 more weeks of winter? Count on it.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Light snow, about 1-2", tapering to mostly flurries by late afternoon. Slippery roads. Winds: E 10-15. High: 28

Tonight: Lingering clouds, few flakes around town. Low: near 20

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, a few flurries possible. High: 26

Sunday: Another period of light snow, about 1" of powder possible. High: 23

Monday: Flurries taper, feeling colder again. High: 20

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, more flurries. High: 16

Wednesday: Peeks of sun, colder than average. High: 17

Thursday: Partly sunny and chilly. High: 18

Washington D.C. has already seen nearly 30" of snow, 18" above average to-date, and another 10" is on the way by Saturday. Keep in mind that an INCH is a big deal in our nation's capital, capable of instilling dread, closing schools - inciting a run on area grocery stores in a mad-mass panic. I'm really not exaggerating. There is nothing more baffling (and on some level, humorous) than being in D.C. before a snow "event". The locals just go nuts. Imagine how they're feeling tonight, doing everything but barricading the doors and retreating to their basements. Imagine how safe they'd feel up here on the tundra, where the snow will fall lightly, in reasonable dribs and drabs. No mega-storms in sight, but a couple of minor "plowable" events are shaping up: Friday, again on Sunday. No headline-generating storms, but the local newscasts will still have a reporter stationed outdoors in the first 5 minutes of the newscast, reporting on icy conditions, assorted fender-benders, turning a minor snowfall into "breaking news". I know of what I speak. Been there. Done that. I'll be the first to admit that a lousy inch of slush, falling at the wrong time and the right place can cause a world of hurt. An inch! That's why NOAA has started to rate snowstorms, just like tornadoes and hurricanes, on a similar scale, from 1 to 5. The ratings are based not only on the AMOUNT of expected snow, but the presence of ice, high winds, low visibility, cold temperatures (which make it tougher for road crews to melt snow on major highways with salt & sand) and the time of day the storm actually hits. It's not a bad idea, and it may even catch on over time, something we've been considering adding to our daily forecasts.


Clipped again. Here is the latest (NAM) model prediction for snowfall through Friday night. Much of the area is forecast to pick up at least 2" of wet, slushy snow, with a few 3"+ amounts south/west of I-94. Extreme southwestern MN may see as much as 3-6" of wet snow from Friday's fast-moving clipper.

Advisories and watches. The latest from NOAA, showing a winter weather advisory extending into southwestern MN, where some 3-6" snowfall amounts are possible by Friday night. The farther north/east you travel across Minnesota the lesser the snowfall amounts. Check out the winter storm watch posted from Indianapolis to Columbus and Washington D.C., where some 6-12" amounts are possible by Saturday. Want to see a (big) pile of snow? Drive southeast - quickly. To check out an interactive map with the latest watches/warnings and radar check out this (very cool) URL from Ham Weather (a division of WeatherNation). Yep, I'm a little biased.

It's probably a better idea, a bit more practical than NAMING winter storms. The newspaper up in Grand Forks did that back in the 70s and 80s, naming winter storms after famous hockey players and local politicians. The thought behind this gimmick: make the storms more "memorable", easier to track - avoid confusion when there are multiple storms in the forecast. Not sure if people would respond to "Winter Storm Bubba" but it sure is a fascinating idea. For now we'll that one pass...

America the snow-covered. Check out all the snow on the ground, as far south as northern Texas, Arkansas and the hills of northern Georgia. We feel their cold, crystalline pain, don't we?

The rumors are true: a little freezing drizzle may fall later today as temperatures climb through the 20s to near 30. A period of steadier snow is likely Thursday night and Friday, with a potential for 2-3" of wet, slushy snow from St. Cloud to the Twin Cities by the dinner hour Friday, enough to gum up traffic and complicate your Friday commute. But with temperatures approaching 30 most freeways and major roads will probably be wet/slushy, while side streets could be snow-covered and very slippery. The mercury drops steadily through the teens over the weekend; a reinforcing clipper, marking the leading edge of subzero air, whipping up light, powdery snow - similar to what fell on Monday. Another inch or two of fluff may accumulate Monday, but cold sun returns for much of Monday-Tuesday of next week, with at least 3-4 subzero nights and daytime highs 10-15 degrees below average. Terrific. The good news: the next outbreak of Canadian air won't stick around for long. A Pacific breeze kicks in the latter half of next week, meaning a quick rebound into the 20s by Wednesday or Thursday.

An icy scenario? A think layer of warm air aloft may turn light snow over to a period of freezing drizzle for a time today, drizzle freezing on-contact with cold surfaces. Any treated roads/freeways will probably be mostly-wet, but watch the secondary roads - they may be quite icy by afternoon/evening, followed by a changeover to mostly snow by tonight.
An end to the temperature honeymoon. Two more days of highs in the upper 20s to near 30, and then a temperature-tumble kicks in this weekend, stabilizing by early next week with some single digit highs and at least 3-4 subzero nights from Sunday through Wednesday. One step forward, two steps back...
A couple of "snow events." Disclaimer/caveat: clippers are notoriously fickle, but the models are in fairly good agreement that we'll see at least a couple inches of slush by Friday, another inch or two of powdery snow on Sunday as much colder air arrives.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Overcast, a little freezing drizzle may ice up some roads. Winds: SE 5-10. High: near 30

Tonight: A period of wet snow likely, 1-2" by morning. Low: 25

Friday: Light snow, totals of 2-3" slush possible by Friday afternoon. High: 29

Saturday: Better travel, mostly cloudy and colder with flurries. High: 18

Sunday: Steadier snow (light/powdery). Potential for 1-2" of additional snow. High: 15

Monday: Cold sun returns. High: 7

Tuesday: Numbing start, blue sky - dry sky. Low: -7. High: 8

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, "milder" again. High: 25

Check out how much more snow is on the ground south of the Twin Cities than in the immediate metro area. The dark blue shaded counties have as much as 10-14" of snow, compared to 8-12" in the immediate Twin Cities area.

Average high in the Twin Cities for Feb. 3: 24 F. Today's predicted high: 25.

We're in-between. The worst of winter (in terms of hours below zero) are behind us. Yet it's way too early to even contemplate spring (although daydreaming about spring break is encouraged. If you've lived in Minnesota longer than 1 winter you know the cold, cruel truth: much of February and March is one step forward, two steps back. Temperatures climb to "average" today, a recognition of the fact that the sun is climbing ever-higher into the southern sky. In fact today the sun is as high in the sky as it was back on November 9, when the high in the Twin Cities was a balmy 61. The reason it's so much colder in early February: all that snow on the ground across Canada and the northern third of the USA. It acts as a "refrigerant", chilling the air from below, keeping us 20-25 degrees colder than we would be otherwise. Until we lose the snow (late March, early April, your guess is as good as mine) the sun's energy will go into melting snow instead of heating up the air, limiting just how mild we can get. That said, the prevailing jet stream winds make a huge difference. Are prevailing winds originating from the Yukon or Vancouver? For at least the next 36-48 hours you'll feel a distinct Pacific influence, coaxing the mercury well into the 20s to near 30 in some Minnesota towns. Hardly spring fever, but a baby-step in the right direction.

Snowfall potential.

Models are still hinting at a coating to 1" of slushy snow (mixed with a little freezing drizzle at times) by Friday. This will be a heavier, wetter snow, nothing like the fluffy, powdery snow that fell on Monday. For a final list of snowfall amounts from Monday's "storm" (the old timers are laughing now) see below. Flurries taper early Saturday before another surge of light snow arrives Sunday and Monday, this time light, fluffy and powdery, as temperatures fall through the teens. That could mean more spin-outs and fender-benders the latter half of the weekend, even though the models are only printing out 1-2" of snow Sunday and Sunday night. The mercury tumbles early next week, at least 3-4 days with highs in the teens, low in single digits to just below zero. The bottom line: this next cold snap won't be as harsh as what we just muddled through, nothing like the first third of January, when we shivered through at least one night of -25 F. air temperature. The good news: we warm up fairly rapidly the latter half of next week, more 20s by Thursday/Friday, even some low 30s by the second weekend of February. Not exactly spring fever, but Old Man Winter shows some definite signs of mellowing in the weeks to come.

1-2" of Minnesota powder next Sunday - Monday? Here's the GFS model output valid Sunday evening at 7 pm, showing expected snowfall from 1 pm to 7 pm - hinting at the heaviest amounts over southern MN, south of the Minnesota River. With temperatures in the teens this should be a light, fluffy, powdery snow - similar to Monday's snowfall. Translation: more ice & snow-covered roads and a greater chance of traffic hassles.

No big storms, no headline-grabbing outbreaks of numbing air, just a nuisance snow Friday, maybe an inch or two of new snow Sunday into Monday morning to cover up the grit and grime. With Monday's fresh coating of white snow conditions are pretty good statewide, and they're about to get a bit better. Not exactly Aspen/Snowmass conditions, but not bad at all for Minnesota.

How to survive an earthquake. Along with hurricanes, this is one of the few natural disasters Minnesotans DO NOT have to worry about! But many of us travel to earthquake-prone regions, like California and the Pacific Rim. Even Seattle and Memphis are vulnerable to potentially devastating quakes. In the unlikely event the earth under your feet ever shakes uncontrollably you may want to know what to do to increase your odds of survival. Time magazine has a great feature story here.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: More clouds than sun, a bit milder. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 25

Tonight: Patchy clouds, not as cold. Low: 15

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, a little light snow/ice possible by Thursday night. High: near 30

Friday: Period of light snow, mixed with freezing drizzle. A light, slushy accumulation possible. High: 29

Saturday: Flurries taper off - improving travel, turning colder. High: near 20

Sunday: Cloudy with more light snow, potential for an inch or 2" by Monday. High: 18

Monday: Light snow tapers, slowly improving travel conditions. High: 15

Tuesday: Some blue sky, chilly. High: 17

What exactly was that cold, white, (foreign), crystalline substance falling out of a slate-gray sky on Monday? Old-timers referred to it as s-n-o-w.

I did a little research on the subject, consulted my trusty Merriam-Webster dictionary:

"SNOW"

1 a : precipitation in the form of small white ice crystals formed directly from the water vapor of the air at a temperature of less than 32°F (0°C).

For the record only 3.1" snow fell on the Twin Cities (officially, at MSP International) during the month of January. According to NOAA records that made snowfall in January, 2010 the NINTH LEAST since 1891 for the Twin Cities area. The least January snow ever reported: .6" in 1892 and 1898. It turns out the last few Januarys have been unusually fickle (and snowless). It was the least January snow since 2.3" in January, 2006.




One of the Top 10 Gloomiest Januarys (for Twin Cities snow-lovers). With 3.1" last month add 2010 as #9 to the list of "least snowy Januarys in the Twin Cities." Graphic courtesy of the MN State Climatology Office. For more click on this link.

:            STATION           MAX     MIN     SNOW  SNOW
:             NAME             TEMP    TEMP    FALL  DEPTH
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN ARPT     :  10  /    2      M      M
STC : ST CLOUD MN ARPT       :  12  /   -1  /  0.9     9
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN ARPT    :  16  /    8  /  0.8     8
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN ARPT  :  16  /    5  /   M      M
DLH : DULUTH AIRPORT         :  11  /  -11  /  0.0     25
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS    :   7  /  -22  /   T      19
HIB : HIBBING ARPT           :  10  /  -14      M      M
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN        :  20  /    0  /   M      M
RST : ROCHESTER MN ARPT      :  19  /    6  /  1.0     11

Statewide Climate Recap. Data as of 7 pm Monday evening. St. Cloud picked up .9" Monday (as much as fell all of January!). The Twin Cities: .8" with 1" in Rochester. Final amounts may be a bit higher, especially south of the Twin Cities, where the heaviest bands from Monday's clipper set up. Note Duluth: reporting a healthy 25" of snow on the ground. Even Rochester has more snow on the ground than St. Cloud or the Twin Cities. Very odd.

Snapshot of a Clipper. Monday evening's weather map showing a cyclonic swirl of snow. The purple/red dots show IFR conditions, where cloud ceilings and visibilities are lowest (implying heavier amounts of snow). For the latest "surface map" for the Upper Midwest click here.

Encouraging Trends. The models are in close agreement about the impending warming trend through the end of the week - some divergence about the cooling trend early next week, but there's little doubt that a colder front pushes back into Minnesota by Monday.

Next "Nuisance Snow"? The GFS model is hinting at a little light snow Friday and Saturday, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle at times. Amounts should be light, under an inch or so. With afternoon highs in the upper 20s to near 30 most (major) roads may just be wet/slushy by then.

A few (random) weather headlines:

* Next week's cold push won't be as bitter (or enduring) as this latest outbreak - 2 or 3 days of highs in the teens.

* The mercury return to the mid 20s, possibly 30 again by the end of next week.

* I still don't see a major storm (snow, ice or rain) looking out 10-14 days. Beyond that time frame the crystal ball gets very, very murky. Maybe we'll ease into February after all.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Slippery start. Flurries giving way to peeks of sun. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 18

Tonight: Partly cloudy, quite cold. Low: 3

Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy - decent travel conditions. High: 21

Thursday: Overcast, a bit milder. High: 27

Friday: A period of light snow, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle. High: near 30

Saturday: Light snow/flurries, potential for a slushy coating to 1" High: 28

Sunday: Better travel day. More clouds than sun. High: 25

Monday: Windy, turning colder with more sunshine. High: near 20, falling into the teens.