November. No-snow. No-ice. No-wind chill. No-parkas or dressing-in-layers. No-rush hour nightmares or incessant watches, warnings and advisories polluting the airwaves. No sense of dread or impending weather-doom. Wait. Is this really November? Maybe in Charlotte or Wichita, but Minnesota has rarely seen a November this mild, moderate and mellow. Statewide it's either the warmest, or second-warmest November since modern-day weather records were first started around 1890. Why the reprieve? Steering winds aloft, blowing some 4-8 miles above the ground, have been wafting from the west, from Seattle and Vancouver, instead of from the Yukon and Arctic Circle. This "modified Pacific flow" is responsible for temperatures (consistently) running 8-10 degrees above average for the entire month. The 50s in store for the upcoming weekend will be 20 degrees above average across most of the state - pretty amazing. Case in point: it was 57 yesterday in Canby, Minnesota, almost 25 degrees warmer than "average." Even with the clouds and drizzle the mercury peaked at 49 in St. Cloud, 47 in the Twin Cities.


Let me try and put things into perspective, meteorologically: November is (usually) the cloudiest month of the year. Only 39% of the daylight hours are sunny, on average. This is the third snowiest month of the year, behind January and March, in that order. We normally pick up 10" of snow (that's the average!), at least 3 days with more than 1"+ of snow in a given November. Then again, as my dad once said, "you can prove anything with statistics." My point (if there is one), this has been a very atypical November. In fact the last 20 days have been typical for....October. The October we never had. I'm more confused than ever (and so is the atmosphere). This is why it's so great attempting to predict the (manic) skies over Minnesota - you never know what's coming around the corner.

WRF-NMM Model for Monday at 6 am. An eastbound cold front may squeeze out rain for St. Cloud and the Twin Cities late Sunday and Sunday night. Over the MN Arrowhead temperatures aloft may be just cold enough for a couple inches of snow late in the weekend.

Skies brighten today, the sun peeking through later today and Saturday, daytime highs topping 50 across much of Minnesota. Clouds thicken Saturday ahead of an oncoming cold front, a little rain possible late Sunday and Sunday night, maybe .10 to .25" of rain. The atmosphere cools down early next week, a few flurries/sprinkles are possible Tuesday (no accumulation locally) but models are hinting at a couple inches of slushy snow over the MN Arrowhead Sunday night, again Tuesday. We dry out by the middle of next week - dry weather expected for Thanksgiving Thursday (!) followed by a dry, breezy Friday - perfect weather for stalking your favorite store(s) at your favorite mall(s). I hope to never leave the couch. Another storm is brewing for the weekend after Thanksgiving, a period of rain developing Saturday, Nov. 28, possibly, POSSIBLY changing to wet snow by Sunday, Nov. 29. It's way too early to even ponder the potential for accumulation right now, but you if you're driving you MAY want to consider planning to hit the road Saturday, the 29th, not Sunday. We'll fine-tune that forecast next week, as the event gets closer (and the model data becomes more reliable).

Potential Snowfall between now and next Tuesday. GFS guidance is suggesting 1-3" of slush for the Minnesota Arrowhead (best chance Sunday night). The ground is still relatively warm, much of the snow will initially melt-on-contact, but I could see some (minor) travel headaches north/east of Duluth late in the weekend.

By the way, it still looks like our weather honeymoon comes to a gusty, eye-watering end the first week of December, when Canadian air will finally push in. Yes, it's inevitable. We can only put it off so long. At some point we have to face reality. It's early, but right now I'm betting on 30s for highs the first week of December (20s north), with a definite whiff of wind chill. Snow? I still don't see any MAJOR risk of accumulating snow peering out over the horizon, looking out 2 weeks or so. That could change. But the good news, no the GREAT weather news: no big, hairy storms are lurking between now and Thanksgiving. Getting over the river and through the woods to Grandma's house should be a piece of cake. Getting home? That could be a bit more challenging, especially if you're leaving Sunday, Nov. 29. Stay tuned for more...

Slushy Snow for the Sunday after Thanksgiving? The GFS model valid Sunday morning at 6 am is hinting at rain changing to snow the weekend after Thanksgiving - probably rain on Saturday, Nov. 28, mixing with and changing to wet snow on Sunday, the 29th. It's early, but you may want to consider leaving the relative's house a little earlier than scheduled. We'll keep you posted.
Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Clouds giving way to intervals of sun, mild for late November. Winds: W/SW 5-10. High: near 50

Tonight: Partly cloudy, frosty. Low: 29

Saturday: Fading sun, breezy - clouds increase PM hours. High: 53

Sunday: Cloudy, a period of rain late Sunday and Sunday night. High: 49 (wet snow possible for the MN Arrowhead).

Monday: Windy and cooler with sprinkles/flurries. High: 44

Tuesday: Chilly, gray with snow showers/flurries, probably no accumulation. High: 39

Wednesday: A mix of clouds and sun, chilly. High: 36

Thanksgiving: Dry, unusually sunny for November. High: 39

Friday: Partly sunny, breezy and milder. High: 45

Saturday (Nov. 28). A period of rain. High: 44

Sunday (Nov. 29). Rain, possibly changing to wet snow. High: 38 (falling)

The weather has been nothing short of phenomenal - amazing - wondrous - awe inspiring. I've run out of pithy adjectives. Unless you've been cooped up in a cave you realize how memorable November has been, normally a time of gray, windblown flakes, day after day of wind chill and long faces. So let me get this straight: 4th chilliest October on record? Check. Immediately followed by the second warmest November on record? Check. It just gets more interesting with time, doesn't it? But here's the thing: when it stays this nice, for this long, I start to get very, very nervous. Why? The atmosphere strives for equilibrium; that's why a spell of unusually warm weather is usually followed by a stretch of unusually cold weather. And vice versa. So here we are, basking some 8-10 degrees above average for the month (yes, November is running warmer than all of October!) Go figure. At some point, fairly soon, there WILL be payback. Temperatures begin to cool back down to "normal" next week, the atmosphere (finally) chilly enough for snow by Thanksgiving - but a dire lack of significant moisture should prevent significant snow/ice in time for holiday travel plans.

It's still early, but the long-range (GFS) computer model is strongly hinting at the first true outbreak of numbing, Canadian air for the first week of December. The model is even printing out a little liquid precipitation, which could (in theory) translate into some slush by December 2-5. I won't be at all shocked if we don't have patches of snow on the ground within 2 weeks, especially up north. But I'm happy to report the atmosphere will behave itself through most of next week and the weekend immediately following Thanksgiving. Keep the heavy jackets and coats handy - highs hold in the 30s early next week, nighttime temperatures dipping into the teens and 20s. It will warm back up again the end of next week, in time for crazed "Black Friday" power-shopping and getting home the following weekend. But in the meantime, just the notion that we're still ranting and raving (or waxing eloquent, depending on your choice of words) the THIRD WEEK OF NOVEMBER is pretty phenomenal! For the 10th November in a row we have a Minnesota November mild enough to play golf. According to Professor Mark Seeley, at the U. of Minnesota, that is unprecedented, historically.


The same storm that unleashed 2-3" of rain on St. Louis is pinwheeling northeast, toward the Great Lakes, capable of brushing Minnesota with patchy clouds, even a little drizzle or a few sprinkles/showers today. The best chance of rain will stay east of the St. Croix, across Wisconsin. Even if it does rain, any precipitation will be very light and spotty, probably not enough to complicate after-school activities or evening plans. It won't be as picturesque as recent days, but the sun should poke a few holes through stale clouds tomorrow, enough fleeting sun for low 50s on Saturday. Long-range guidance is even hinting at 50 NEXT Saturday, the 28th day of November. And THAT may just be the last 50+ reading we see for some time. Like 4 months, give or take a few days.

Soak it up!


Western Fireball. A remarkable midnight fireball that "turned night into day" over parts of the western United States last night was not a Leonid. Infrasound measurements suggest a sporadic asteroid not associated with the Leonid debris stream. The space rock exploded in the atmosphere with an energy equivalent to 0.5 - 1 kilotons of TNT. Approximately 6 hours later, observers in Utah and Colorado witnessed a twisting, irridescent-blue cloud in the dawn sky. Debris from the fireball should have dissipated by that time, but the cloud remains unexplained; we cannot yet rule out a connection to the fireball event. (source: spaceweather.com).

NOVEMBER 19TH, 1981-An unusually early snowstorm struck the Twin Cities of Minnesota, with as much as a foot of snow reported. The weight of the heavy snow caused the newly inflated fabric dome of the Hubert Humphrey Metrodome in downtown Minneapolis to collapse and rip.


Almanac for Wednesday in the Twin Cities. High: 50. Low: 28. (Normals: 38/24). November temperature departure: +8.6 F.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: More clouds than sun, nothing more than a sprinkle or two. The sun should be out part of the day. Winds: Light, under 5 mph. High: 47

Tonight: Patchy clouds, mild for late November. Low: 34

Friday: A mix of clouds and sun, still milder than average. High: 48

Saturday: Milder with fading sun. More wind kicks in by afternoon. High: 51

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, a few light rain showers possible. High: 47

Monday: Mostly cloudy, gusty and cooler - a few passing sprinkles, even a flurry. High: 43

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, sprinkles or flurries around town. High: 39

Wednesday: Leftover clouds, a stray flurry or two - chilly. High: 37

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly cloudy - few flakes, mainly over the MN Arrowhead. Probably dry in and near the metro area. High: near 40

Friday: Partly sunny, brighter, nicer. High: 46

Saturday (Nov. 28). Dry, intervals of sun, still amazingly mild for the end of November. High: near 50

I'm enjoying this November;this coming from a guy with two (Polaris) sleds collecting cobwebs in the garage. Yes, to be honest I can't wait to get out and play in the snow. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't enjoying our utter lack of "weather" so far in November, and it's beginning to look like we'll get through the entire month without ONE MAJOR STORM! After the cool, soggy thrashing Minnesota received in October who would have thought Mother Nature would take virtually the entire month of November off? Temperatures are 8.8 degrees F. above average for November, and even though we'll cool back down closer to normal next week, nothing arctic is in sight. Bitter air is building over Alaska and Canada's Northwest Territories, but (so far) this brutal, Siberian air is being shunted almost due east, toward Greenland, no mother-load of nose-numbing air about to dive due south toward the lower 48 states. Not yet. Clouds increase today, a little drizzle, a light shower possible tonight and Thursday, but the brunt of the rain will pass to our east, over Wisconsin. The "occluded", temporarily stalled storm over the middle Mississippi River Valley dumped 2.5" of rain on St. Louis, nearly 3.5" for Decatur, Illinois, but the storm continues to weaken, the soggy dregs tracking northeast, capable of just a glancing blow to Minnesota.

Severe Clear. This is an ultra-high resolution NASA image from the low-orbiting "Aqua" weather satellite, showing crystal clear skies over most of Minnesota and Wisconsin, a sharp cut-off to the cloud line from Des Moines to the Quad Cities and Milwaukee. This is a "true color" image, retouched to simulate reality. Yes, the ground is now brown (after our widespread freezes in recent weeks). Not much green showing up on this map!



When Alaskans shiver, Minnesotans (usually) rejoice. There's an interesting correlation between what's happening in Alaska, and subsequent weather observed over Minnesota. It's not foolproof (there are exceptions) but USUALLY, when Alaska is bitterly cold during the winter months, Minnesota temperatures tend to trend above average, with more of a Pacific component to our prevailing winds. I'll let you know when Alaska warms up - that's when we need to watch out for a brutal slap of Siberian air!

Saturday still appears to be the nicer day of the weekend, enough sun for low 50s over parts of Minnesota. A southerly fetch pushes more (thick) clouds back into the state Sunday, and a little light rain or drizzle may result. Northwesterly winds return next week, highs dipping into the 30s by the latter half of next week. It will be cold enough for snow by Thanksgiving Day, but with a west/northwest wind flow I don't see any significant moisture - we won't have the ingredients necessary for a big snow or ice storm next week. So far so good for Thanksgiving travel, I'm cautiously optimistic we won't be tracking any epic storms next week (at least not here in the Upper Midwest). The Pacific Northwest has been getting the brunt of recent storms, and conditions are ripe for "cyclogenesis" (ie. storm formation) on the east coast next week. Rain is likely from Washington D.C. north to New York and Boston, and I could see some rain-delays at airports in the northeast, especially the latter half of next week.

My calendar must be malfunctioning. Looking at the current snowcover map you'd swear it's October 18, not November 18. Notice an utter lack of snow on the ground anywhere east of the Mississippi. Normally, by mid November, you'd see a few inches of snow piling up over northern Michigan and interior New England. This year: nothing...

Spits and "spritzes" of rain. I think "spritz" is an Amish term. I've never seen a good definition, but I place a spritz somewhere between a sprinkle and a light shower - just enough rain to put your windshield wipers on intermittent. The latest 84 hour GFS model prints out very light amounts south/east of the Twin Cities (under .05") - most of that coming late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Some .25" amounts are predicted east of La Crosse, WI.

Pretty quiet for November. The Pacific Northwest has seen heavy rain, 40-65 mph. wind gusts, and 1-3 feet of mountain snows, but this epic parade of Pacific storms has been focused on Seattle and Portland, the storms weakening rapidly as they cross the Rockies. You can see the (weakening) circulation of the Middle Mississippi storm, pushing northeast toward Chicago and Detroit, capable of brushing Minnesota with clouds - maybe a few light sprinkles or showers by Thursday.

A minor fly in the ointment? The latest GFS model run shows Sunday's front stalling over far southeastern Minnesota Monday and Monday night. A cold rain may fall south/east of the Twin Cities (better chance for Rochester and La Crosse). There may be just enough cold air aloft for a rain/snow mix Monday night, but it's too early to speculate on specific timing and possible amounts. Right now it does NOT look like a major snowfall for southeastern Minnesota.


Thanksgiving week preview. Here is the raw (GFS) model data for the latter half of next week. Check out "total precipitation" and the lack of significant moisture around the holidays. In general a temperature of 0 (Celsius) or colder at 850 mb (about 3,000 to 4,000 feet) is required for significant snow. Temperatures at that altitude will be marginally cold enough, but a lack of moisture should mean a lack of major storms for Thanksgiving and "Black Friday" shopping expeditions. We're not quite out of the woods - yet - but so far, so good.

Tuesday Alamanc for the Twin Cities. High: 48. November precipitation so far: .15" (.97" drier than average, to date).

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Fading sun, clouds increase and thicken during the day. Winds: E 5-10. High: 47

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, a few sprinkles can't be ruled out. Low: 35

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and damp - a sprinkle or shower (but most of the day should be dry). High: 44

Friday: More clouds than sun, probably dry. High: 48

Saturday: Nicer day of the weekend. Intervals of sun, unseasonably mild. High: 51

Sunday: Gray and drab with drizzle, maybe a few hours of light rain. High: 47

Monday: Partial clearing, a drier day (cold rain or rain/snow mix for far southeastern MN). High: 43

Tuesday: Closer to average, becoming partly sunny and brisk. High: 38

The calendar on the wall is whispering November, but the atmosphere is SHOUTING October. Temperatures for the first 16 days of November are running 9 to 9.5 degrees warmer than average, making this the warmest November since modern-day NWS records were first started in 1891. The third coolest October is being followed by a record-smashing (mild) November - makes perfect sense to me. El Nino kicking in? Not sure if we can attribute this warm spell to warm water collecting off the coast of South America - it's certainly possible. The pattern is what meteorologists refer to as "modified Pacific", a regime more typical for late September than the third week of November. Keep in mind we should have picked up 4-5" of snow so far this month. Lakes and ponds should be freezing up - wind chills should be dipping into the teens. So much for "should".

A Free Show. Yes, we're talking my favorite kind of shower, a celestial sight rarely seen east of the Mississippi, where hills, haze, high rise buildings and light pollution usually get in the way. In case you weren't awake (and outside, away from light pollution) this morning at 3 am, the "Leonid Meteor Shower" is underway - planet Earth hurtling through a trail of cosmic dust leftover from comet Tempel Tuttle. As many as 20-30 lucky shooting stars (meteors) were visible last night - under ideal conditions. High clouds may dim the show a bit tonight, but it's still worth a look. Historically it's one of the more spectacular meteor showers of the entire year.



What happened to "normal"? Based on data from the National Weather Service and the MN State Climatology Office on any given year there is a 17% chance of at least 1" of snow on the ground on November 17, a 2% risk of 5" of snowcover. The probability of at least 1" of snow rises to 52% by Thanksgiving Day, a better than 50/50 chance of a "white Thanksgiving." Not this year, not here - not going to happen.

Snow on the ground: a rare commodity. You have to look long and hard to find any snow on the ground right now, a slushy coating over the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, otherwise bare ground for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes - highly unusual for the 17th day of November.

If you were confined to your cubicle or office yesterday you'll get another chance to soak up some brilliant sunshine again today with highs near 50, a good 10-15 degrees warmer than average. Factor in a light breeze and you'll swear it's October 17! I know, I keep rubbing my eyes, wondering about this wondrous atmospheric time warm we've fallen into. Whatever the trigger, milder-than-normal weather will linger into at least the first half of next week. I still don't see any major storms (of any flavor) between now and Thanksgiving indigestion and family small-talk. It will cool down by the end of next week, the atmosphere aloft cold enough aloft for a little snow by the end of next week. But the pattern won't favor major storms over the nation's midsection for at least the next 2 weeks - big storms are lashing the Pacific Northwest - models print out a soaking (rain) storm for New England around Thanksgiving Day, but we may just dodge a bullet here in Minnesota.

Where's the Snow? This is the latest snowfall outlook through midnight on Friday. The only predicted snow is a small region in northeastern Kansas; the same storm may spread drizzle and very light rain into town Wednesday night and Thursday.

An "occluded" storm over Missouri (responsible for some 6-8" snowfall amounts over northeastern Kansas) will weaken as it pinwheels north, pushing clouds into the state on Wednesday, the atmosphere may saturate enough for a little drizzle or very light rain from Wednesday night into Thursday. We dry out a bit Friday before clouds thicken up on Saturday, another period of drizzle or light rain expected from late Saturday into Sunday. We dry out (and sunny up!) early next week, temperatures falling off slightly, back to "average" in time for heading over the river and through the woods to Grandma's house for Thanksgiving. Right now it looks like highs in the 30s (to near 40 over southern Minnesota) for turkey-time and crazed, foaming-at-the-mouth shopping sprees next Friday, the mythical, to be avoided-at-all-cost "Black Friday." Where's a good blizzard when you need one?

Preliminary Thanksgiving Outlook. The long-range GFS model prints out a major storm for New England on Thanksgiving Day, the atmosphere probably warm enough for mostly rain for cities from New York to Boston and Albany. The storm may impact flights into and out of major cities in the northeast the end of next week - stay tuned for more details.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Bright sun, still spectacular - more like mid October. Winds: E 5-10. High: near 50

Tonight: Partly cloudy, slight chance of spying a shooting star or two. Low: 27

Wednesday: Clouds increase and thicken - a little light rain or drizzle possible late. High: 45

Thursday: A period of light rain or drizzle. High: 46

Friday: Drying out, peeks of sun. High: 47

Saturday: A mix of clouds and sun, unseasonably mild. High: 51

Sunday: Gray and damp with light rain or drizzle. High: 47

Monday: Gradual clearing, breezy and cooler. High: 43

Weather Headlines

Weather modification backfires in China?

History of weather-tinkering in the USA

October weather to hang on most of this week (today & tomorrow the 2 nicest days in sight).

Best chance of light rain: Thursday, again Saturday

Turning colder by Thanksgiving: cold enough for a little wet snow NEXT Thursday & Friday?

A recent spate of record blizzards across northern China has created an uproar. Nearly 50 people have been killed during the heaviest snows in five decades across northern China's drought-stricken northern regions. Damage is estimated at more than $650 million; highways have been clogged, thousands stranded at area airports, with numerous reports of collapsed roofs north of Beijing. What makes the storm so controversial? Days before the Beijing Weather Modification Office conducted widespread cloud-seeding operations, boasting that "they had produced 16 million metric tons of additional snow." In a Wall Street Journal article a weather official, Zhang Qiang, was quoted as saying, "We won't miss any opportunity for artificial precipitation since Beijing is suffering from the lingering drought." Ouch. The timing is curious, but the truth of the matter: there is NO way seeding a few clouds could have created the record snowfalls (1-3 feet) measured over normally-arid northern China. It was an unfortunately-timed coincidence, but it points out the moral hazard of tinkering with Mother Nature.

Record-breaking snowstorms in the midst of a lingering drought. North China has been hit hard by heavy snow in the last week, paralyzing travel by air and land, collapsing buildings, leaving scores of people dead. The massive blizzard coincided with aggressive cloud-seeding conducted by the Chinese government in an attempt to end a decade-long drought.

During the 1970s, during a severe drought, efforts were made to seed clouds over North Dakota to try and squeeze a little rain out of a dry, dusty, summer sky. What happened next was also (probably) another example of crazy-coincidence: it POURED over the Red River Valley, and subsequent floods got farmers so angry that they petitioned to stop weather modification immediately. You could argue the cloud-seeding worked too well! Since then there has been no weather modification (to my knowledge) anywhere east of the Rockies. Many western states routinely operate weather modification exercises, attempting to nudge the weather in a certain direction. Cloud-seeding over the Sierra Nevada mountains of California have been shown to spike snowfall by 3-5%, but only when conditions aloft are ripe. Salt Lake City's airport has dropped dry ice into ice fogs, hoping to dissipate ice crystals and clear runways, with some level of success. But the energy necessary to create widespread, heavy rain (or snow) is something that just isn't in the realm of reality anytime soon.


In recent years the one area of weather modification that has gotten the most attention revolves around hurricanes. Although it's probably impossible to nudge a hurricane in any specific direction - the notion of weakening a hurricane is very possible, at least in theory. Since hurricanes thrive on warm ocean water, if you could somehow cool water temperatures in the path of a hurricane, you MIGHT be able to knock down wind speeds (and subsequent storm surges and damage). Scientists have devised amazing technologies for bringing cool water deep in the ocean to the surface; even Microsoft's Bill Gates got in on the action by filing a patent for a process that might weaken hurricanes by cooling the water in their path.

Project Stormfury. In the 1960s attempts were made to weaken a handful of hurricanes approaching the U.S. coast. The theory: by seeding the outer eyewall it might be possible to strengthen the thunderstorms farther away from the center of the storm, widening the eye, and subsequently weakening the strongest winds in the process. Although some of the initial results were promising, nearby nations complained that the USA was "stealing their rain", so the experiments were halted.

But tinkering with the weather is fraught with peril, technological and political. During the 1960s, during Project Stormfury", researchers attempted to seed the inner eyewall of Hurricane Debby, off the coast of Florida, with silver iodide, hoping to weaken the raging donut of towering thunderheads. Sure enough wind speeds dropped by 30% immediately after the Hurricane Hunter aircraft seeded the core of the storm. But after getting wind of the experiment, countries like Cuba and Mexico complained to the United Nations that America was "robbing them of their life-giving storms." Bowing to international political pressure the hurricane researchers halted their flights into hurricanes, and there hasn't been any attempted modification since. Sometimes I'm asked, "Paul, couldn't you just detonate a nuclear weapon in the eye of a hurricane?" Hmm. Hurricanes get their strength from warm ocean water. Let's heat the water to a million degrees F. in a few milliseconds! Truth: such tinkering could make a hurricane even more fearsome, not to mention what would happen to radioactive fallout. Similar suggestions have been made for tornadoes. "Just launch rockets into the funnels to disrupt the violent vortexes!" Great idea, Einstein. But what happens if your artillery shell MISSES and you hit a nearby neighborhood.

Rest assured - weather modification (on a large and devastating scale) is still the stuff of science fiction, not reality. And no, I haven't seen any credible evidence that the Russians (or anyone else) are using low-grade radio frequency waves or any other esoteric methods to disrupt the weather patterns over North America. Again, the energy required to really have a widespread impact on a storm 1,500 miles wide boggles the mind, and is outside the realm of reality. At least in our lifetime.

I hope you were able to sneak outside yesterday and play in the sun. Does rake leaving qualify as "playing"? I took my '85 convertible out for a spin. I can't remember the last time I was able to do this in mid November. No complaints here. I consider this payback for an especially rotten October. The mercury topped out at 49, well above our average high of 40 for Nov. 15. A year ago the high was 37, by comparison. No snow (yet) in November - we should have seen about 3-4" by now. A fairly quiet week is on tap, today and Tuesday probably the nicest days in sight with highs near 50 over parts of central and southern Minnesota. A Colorado storm will strengthen over Tulsa, Oklahoma tomorrow, then push almost due north, spreading a few light showers into town by Wednesday night and Thursday, but rainfall amounts don't look impressive. Looking farther ahead a little rain or drizzle may fall Saturday, followed by sunnier, drier weather on Sunday as temperatures cool a few degrees. Nothing remotely resembling a "cold front" is in sight this week, temperatures consistently 5-15 degrees above average for this time of year. The Weather Honeymoon continues.

Now, about Thanksgiving. Although I don't see any monstrous, flight-mangling, highway-battering snow/ice/rain storms between now and Thanksgiving, the long LONG range computer models are strongly hinting at a cool-down right around Thanksgiving, even suggesting a slushy inch or so of snow on Thanksgiving and "Black Friday", the shopping (mess) the day after we all consume far too much turkey and stuffing. But winds are forecast to be blowing from the north/northwest, so I can't get too excited (or concerned) just yet. Our flow aloft will be "modified Pacific" through much of next week, so expect our run of October-ish weather to hang on for the better part of the next 10 days. I can live with that....

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly sunny & beautiful. Winds: light, under 5 mph. High: 51

Tonight: Clear and frosty. Low: 26

Tuesday: Bright sun, still feels more like mid October. High: 50

Wednesday: Sunny start, then increasing clouds. High: 46

Thursday: Overcast, a little light rain possible. High: 44

Friday: Mostly cloudy, cool and damp. High: 43

Saturday: Still gray, a little light rain or drizzle possible. High: 46

Sunday: Partial clearing, breezy and cool. High: 43

How's this for odd & random: the first 11 days of November are turning out to be a couple degrees warmer than ALL of October! That doesn't happen very often. Long-range computer guidance keeps us warmer than average through the end of next week. Don't expect another round of Indian Summer with highs near 60, but daytime highs should be well up in the 40s, a good 5-10 degrees above average. The GFS model goes out 15 days, and guidance is hinting at a colder front arriving right around Thanksgiving, possibly a period of rain leading up to Turkey-Time, a colder northwest wind keeping temperatures in the 30s for Thanksgiving Day, no more than a coating or dusting of snow. Right now I do NOT see any major storms capable of fouling up air or land travel between now and Thanksgiving. Of course that could change, but after a little rain today, skies clear out over the weekend. A storm winds up over the mid-Mississippi River Valley next week, possibly pushing a little light rain into Minnesota by late Wednesday and Thursday.

Weather Map for noon today. A week eastbound cool front is forecast to squeeze out a few hours of rain across Minnesota, possibly mixing with or changing over to a period of wet snow Friday night from the Red River Valley across far northern Minnesota.

Predicted Snowfall by next Tuesday. Models are predicting a couple inches of snow for far northern Minnesota tonight and early Saturday, but after the recent bout of milder-than-normal weather much of the snow may melt on contact with the (relatively) mild ground.

Snow? The atmosphere will be warm enough for mostly rain tomorrow, but the models are hinting at a little wet snow across far northern Minnesota late tomorrow and Friday night, I wouldn't be surprised to see a quick inch or two of slush. Whatever falls will be mostly-gone by Saturday afternoon. There's still precious little snow east of the Rockies, unusual but not unprecedented for mid November. The pattern won't be ripe for accumulating snow across the northern tier states of the USA until immediately after Thanksgiving, when lake-effect may finally kick in near Chicago, South Bend, Cleveland and Buffalo. By then we will be long overdue.

No Arctic Fronts Anytime Soon. Here's the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) outlook for next week - it's hard to miss the bulls-eye of warmth predicted right over Minnesota. Odds favor milder-than-normal weather through at least the end of next week. After that all bets are off.

GFS Model Outlook for 6 am next Thursday. A moderate-strength area of low pressure is forecast to spin up over the Mississippi Valley, tracking north across the Plains, pushing a shield of light rain into Minnesota late Wednesday into Thursday. The lowest mile of the atmosphere may be just cold enough for a light rain-snow mix, temperatures above freezing should insure wet roads - probably not cold enough for any snow to actually stick.

Thanksgiving Preview. Here is the raw GFS data for Thanksgiving week, suggesting a period of rain Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a colder front Thanksgiving Day (maybe a dusting/coating of snow). By "Black Friday" daytime highs may be stuck in the 30s - 20s up north. From left to right the day/time is followed by temperature, dew point, wind information (surface and 3,500 feet aloft) followed by expected rainfall. Temperatures aloft cool down rapidly after Thanksgiving - it will be COLD enough for snow, but right now it looks like moisture will be limited in the days immediately after Thanksgiving. No cause for panic....yet.


Say What? This is a random photo that has absolutely nothing to do with today's weather. There are no dust devils (or giraffes) in today's outlook, you'll be happy to hear.

Today's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Overcast, breezy and damp with periods of rain. Winds: SW/W 5-15. High: 52

Tonight: Light rain tapers off late (mixed with snow far northern MN, maybe 1-2"). Low: 34

Saturday: Partly sunny & drier with a cool breeze. High: 47

Sunday: Plenty of sun, milder than average (by about 10 degrees). High: 49

Monday: Mix of clouds and sun, still quiet and dry. High: 48

Tuesday: Sunny start, clouds increase later. High: 47

Wednesday: Cloudy, a little light rain possible late in the day. High: 46

Thursday: Periods of rain, cool & "raw". High: 45

I know - I know. It's hard to get excited about snow, ice, blizzards and dangerous wind chill with temperatures poking well into the 50s to near 60 and talk of Indian Summer in the air. The first 11 days of November are running a good 6-8 degrees above average from St. Cloud to the Twin Cities, as much as 10-15 degrees above average across northern Minnesota, where there is NO snow to be found on the ground. That's a little unusual - by the second week of November there is (usually) a couple inches of snow on the ground over the Minnesota Arrowhead, the BWCA and the International Falls area. A month ago, when it was snowing and everyone was pretty miserable (myself included) I went out on a creaky limb and predicted "more 60s" before winter sets in for good. A number of people laughed (mainly friends and family members) but I stuck to my guns. Why? The atmosphere always strives toward equilibrium. Unusually cold weather is USUALLY followed by a spell of abnormally mild weather. Usually, but not always. The fact that the cold and snow came so early, about 2-4 weeks earlier than normal, was a tip-off that Indian Summer would pop back up again in November. The past 4 days have been a God-send, a kick in the pants, and many people who were moping (and whining) just a few weeks ago have come out of their dark, damp funks and made the most of this unusual spell of late-season warmth. Evidence of El Nino? Probably not. Even though a moderate to strong El Nino is warming Pacific Ocean water, we probably won't see the full effects of this phenomenon until January and February, which should....SHOULD...trend milder than average from Seattle to the Twin Cities. I'm not fond of long-range (seasonal) forecasts. So much can go wrong. El Nino is only one signal, there may be other factors that are much more difficult to factor into the long-range models, and that's why I start to (visibly) sweat when the subject turns to "hey Paul, what's the winter going to be like?" Hmmm. "Colder with some snow. Back to you Bubba." If only it was that easy...

Records Galore! Check out a week's worth of weather records across the USA. All those red dots are cities that recorded a record high temperature in the last 7 days, the green dots show record rainfall amounts for a 24 hour period. The most record highs are clustered from New England into the Great Lakes and across the Rockies, where a blizzard struck just 2 weeks ago. To see specific records on a (great) interactive map, click here for more.



The Winter of '08-09. The National Weather Service created a great map showing snowfall statewide. More than 80" socked the Moorhead/Detroit Lakes area, as well as much of the Minnesota Arrowhead, but only 40-50" fell from St. Cloud into most of the Twin Cities, about 5-10" less than average. What will the upcoming winter bring? Odds (weighted due to El Nino) favor LESS snow than average, but that's far from a certainty. This is Winter Hazard Awareness Week here in Minnesota. For more facts & figures from NOAA click here for some solid information that may come in very handy in a few weeks.

Snowfall during an "Average Winter". Normal snowfall for St. Cloud and the Twin Cities is 50-55", with over 80" for the Arrowhead. Why do snowfall amounts tend to increase the farther east you travel across Minnesota? One factor is moisture swept off Lake Superior ("lake effect snows") but moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is more likely to impact the eastern half of Minnesota than the westernmost counties of the state, which tend to be drier, on average. Yes, during a typical winter MSP and STC SHOULD see more snow than Fargo and the Crookston, Roseau area. Strange but true...

Predicted Wave Heights for Thursday. Unless I'm hallucinating (possible) I'm seeing some 14-18' predictions from coastal Virginia north to New Jersey, the result of the soggy remains of "Ida" interacting with a strong bubble of high pressure draped over eastern Canada. The resulting pressure contrast is whipping up sustained east/northeast winds of 30-50 mph along the east coast, capable of very heavy surf and coastal beach erosion. If you're flying into an eastern city through Saturday expect rain/wind-related delays.

We salvaged a nicer-than-expected Wednesday (my bad - I thought the clouds would thicken up faster). Interestingly enough, I didn't hear a peep from anyone. No "Paul, I thought you said it would cloud up today?" I've noticed that when the weather turns out NICER than predicted, most people don't mind. There may be a little good-natured ribbing, but no crimes have been committed. No worries. But when the forecast turns out WORSE than expected, watch out, especially if it's on a weekend, a holiday, or the Deer Hunting or Fishing Opener. Minnesotans have long memories....and they're not shy about reminding you that you screwed up, big-time!

O.K. Try again. An approaching cool front will increase our cloudcover today, keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but still 10-15 degrees above average. Yes, we're getting spoiled - this recent spell of shirtsleeve/sweatshirt weather is more typical of early October than early November. Think about it: September felt more like August. October was Novemberlike. And now November is feeling more like October (the October we never quite experienced). It's obvious Mother Nature doesn't consult a calendar - she makes it up as she goes...

Today will be mostly-gray, little more than some spotty drizzle (especially up north). Steadier light rain is likely Friday, but amounts don't look terribly impressive, probably under .10" rain. Yes, it will be warm enough aloft (statewide) for plain-Jane-rain. We dry out and cool off a few degrees Saturday, most of Sunday looks dry with fading sun as our on-again/off-again storm winds up over the Mississippi River Valley. The brunt of the moisture should stay JUST to our south and east early next week, a slow-moving storm brushing far southeastern Minnesota with some light rain. A few light showers may reach the Twin Cities, but St. Cloud, Willmar and Brainerd should stay dry. I still don't see any arctic air - no significant snow - although the mercury should tumble just in time for Thanksgiving, highs stuck in the 30s (north), maybe some low/mid 40s south, just a few degrees below average, whatever THAT is. No megastorms in time for Thanksgiving travel, but give it a few days. I always get extra-nervous around major holidays. Murphy's Third Law: storms (given a choice) PREFER to come on holidays. So far so good, but check back next week for a better preview of what the sky overhead may hold for Turkey-time.

GFS Outlook for 6 am, next Tuesday. It's pretty hard to miss the big "bulls-eye" low pressure system winding up to our south over Missouri. The bulk of the rain will slide off to our south and east, soaking Iowa and Wisconsin. We can't rule out a little rain over far southeastern MN from late Monday into Tuesday night. Stay tuned (still looks like a rain event, not enough cold air aloft - yet for significant snow).

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy, windy, still milder than average. Winds: S 15-25. High: 55

Tonight: Cloudy with drizzle, temperatures not falling much. Low: 47

Friday: Gray and damp with periods of light rain/drizzle - nearly steady temperatures. (damp for Friday evening football games). High: 49

Saturday: Becoming partly sunny, breezy and drier. High: 49

Sunday: Sunny start, clouds increasing PM hours. High: near 50

Monday: Cloudy, windy, chance of a little light rain, especially south/east of the Twin Cities. High: 46

Tuesday: Any rain tapers. Breezy and seasonably cool with some PM sun. High: 45

Wednesday: Partly sunny and brisk. High: 45

Thursday: More clouds, chance of drizzle or very light rain. High: 44

"November always seemed to me the Norway of the year," wrote Emily Dickinson, who apparently equated Norway and shivering. Thomas Hood was even less kind to the month:

"No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease,

"No comfortable feel in any member -

"No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees,

"No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds -

"November!"

My hunch is that both Emily and Tom were optimists. November can be nothing short of grim: gray, cold, blustery, talk of rain early in the month mutating into snow-babble around Thanksgiving as Canada stabs increasingly numbing airmasses south of the border. We pick up an average of 8-10" of snow this month (on average), making November the third snowiest month of the year. Yes, really! September is hypnotizing, October a cool slap across the face. November can be a punch to the nether regions, a subtle yet blunt reminder that winter is not only imminent - it's here.

That's what makes the last 10 days especially remarkable: unusually sunny, mild - quiet, almost as if Mother Nature is showing true remorse for one of the wettest, coolest Octobers in modern-day records. You'll still see the sun today, cloaked behind a thickening veil of cirrus and altostratus (mid-level) clouds streaming in from the Dakotas. Even so the mercury should reach the mid 50s, a good 10-15 degrees warmer than average. You'll notice a stiff wind kicking in by Thursday, an approaching cold front squeezing out .25 to .50" of rain by late Friday.

Where's the Snow? The latest snow cover map, courtesy of NOAA. There's still ample snow over the highest terrain of the Rockies, but note the nearly total absence of snow on the ground east of Denver. Parts of the Great Lakes and interior New England should have a few inches of snow on the ground by mid November. Not this year.
A Forgettable October. According to the weather gurus at NOAA October was the wettest and the third coolest on record. For Minnesota it was the 5th coldest, in Oklahoma it was the coldest October in modern-day records. Only Florida was warmer than average. For more fun weather statistics that will make you the center of attention at your next party click here.

The sun peeks through Saturday (temperatures much closer to average - we'll all be rummaging around for heavy jackets) and the approach of a trough of low pressure could spark a little wet snow Saturday night; a coating or dusting of slushy snow isn't out of the question Saturday night, but right now I can't get too excited about amounts. We start to warm up again Sunday (the odds of a major rain storm late Sunday into Monday have diminished dramatically in the last 24 hours). A warming trend is expected the first half of next week, more 50s likely (although 60 may be a bit of a stretch). There's little doubt we'll finish the first half of November with temperatures 6-8 degrees above average. Colder air is brewing for Thanksgiving week, although I still don't see any awe-inducing arctic fronts in our future, looking out 10-15 days. The last few days have been an atmospheric gift from on high, a reminder of how stunning November can be in Minnesota, the exception, not the norm. The trend is for Minnesota winters to be shrinking, fewer days with heavy snow (or snow on the ground). Doubt that? Ask any snowmobiler, cross country skier (or kid). Snow days have been rare in recent decades. El Nino SHOULD leave us with a slightly milder, slightly drier winter - at least on paper. Reality may not be so kind, but the last 10 days have been a pleasant intermission. The tumble into the depths of winter isn't a straight downward line - make the most of this "lack of weather"!

Slow Temperature Tumble. Daytime highs should reach the mid 50s today and tomorrow, then drop into the 40s by the weekend, the atmosphere marginally cold enough for a few snow showers or flurries Saturday night.

Almanac. Tuesday's high at MSP: 61. Rainfall for November: .09" Snowfall: 0" Temperatures running 7.1 degrees warmer than average.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Dim sun through increasing clouds, windier. Winds: South 15-25. High: 56

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low: 41

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, chance of a little drizzle, especially north of town. High: 55

Friday: Periods of rain, wettest day of the week. High: near 50

Saturday: More clouds than sun, chilly. High: 50 (slight chance of a little wet snow Saturday night).

Sunday: Partly sunny, breezy, a bit milder. High: 51

Monday: Intervals of sun, pleasant. High: 53

Tuesday: Plenty of sun, still above average. High: 54

Wednesday: Increasing clouds, cooler. High: 51

No, the two headlines are not related. We will not see any rain from Tropical Storm Ida, although the idea is not as bizarre as it might appear at first blush. About once a decade a gently used hurricane strikes the Gulf coast, and then races northward across the Plains, weakening rapidly as it passes over land, starved of the warm ocean water that sustained it earlier. By the time these washed-up tropical swirls reach Minnesota winds are under 20-30 mph, but rainfall can be heavy, even at this northerly latitude. It's rare, but not impossible, and no, it's physically impossible for a hurricane to reach this far inland (intact). The Great Lakes are too small (the water far too chilly) for hurricane development. Hurricanes require little or no wind aloft to form - that's why we had so few tropical systems this year. El Nino (it's baaack) kept an unusually strong, persistent subtropical jet stream howling over Texas, Florida and the Caribbean, literally shredding tropical disturbances before they had a chance to get going. That's the paradox of hurricanes: they can spawn sustained winds of 150-200 mph at ground level, but to grow (and survive) the winds aloft, some 4-8 miles aloft, have to be nearly nonexistent.


Tropical Storm Ida. Weakening rapidly over cooler water in the northern Gulf of Mexico, the soggy remains of Hurricane Ida are coming ashore near Mobile, Alabama this morning. Sustained winds are tropical storm force, about 50-60 mph, still capable of a "storm surge" of 3-7 feet above normal. Expect significant beach erosion and coastal flooding from Mobile eastward into the panhandle of Florida with some 5-10" rainfall amounts well inland.

Yesterday was stunning, no disagreement there. The official high (in the shade, where the temperature should be measured) was a respectable 61 degrees F, well above the normal high of 44 for November 9. For the record the first week of November has been averaging over 7 degrees above normal. Balmy September, miserable, soggy, snowy October, and now (finally!) Indian Summer makes a welcome appearance in November. What took you so long? So much for "normal weather" right?

The magic hangs on today, nearly as phenomenal as yesterday was, with brilliant sun set against a topaz-blue sky, very light breezes, no bugs (thanks to last month's freeze), no ragweed, no pollen, no humidity. No-vember. Yes, I could get accustomed to 60 degrees - what - a little more than 5 weeks away from the Winter Solstice. And no, you can't necessarily chalk this hypnotizing spell of weather up to global warming. No single event, whether it's a warm front, Indian Summer, rain storm or blizzard can be directly tied to climate change. It IS true that, in general, fall has been consistently hanging on an extra week or two, spring comes 1-2 weeks earlier than it did in the 1960s. I'm not making that up - that's according to our friends at NASA. Maybe I'm imagining it (too much heavy partying in KARE-11's "backyard" in the 80s?) but extreme weather has been getting more extreme, not just here in North America, but worldwide. Weather has always been extreme, but lately, the past few decades, the AMPLITUDE of these extremes have been, well, even more extreme. Hotter high temperatures, colder low temperatures, more frequent rainfall records. Over time you would think (intuitively) that it would become harder and harder to set a weather record. And yet the data shows just the opposite: the tempo of weather records has reached a crescendo in recent decades, more severe local storms, more costly natural disasters. Natural or man-made? Hard to say with total certainty - I just know (in my gut and my head) that something has changed since about 1980, give or take. The notion of "normal weather" is an even bigger joke than it's ever been. We just zig and zag from one record to the next, scratch our heads, and wonder what the heck is going on.

Potential for another soaker? Long-range (GFS) models are printing out over 2" of rain by Tuesday of next week, the heaviest rain predicted for Sunday PM into Monday. Stay tuned.

Soak up today's lukewarm, 60-degree sunlight, because the weather will slowly sour Wednesday, a period of light rain likely by Thursday, possibly lingering into part of Friday. A much more significant storm is shaping up for late in the weekend and Monday of next week as a deep area of low pressure tracks across the Mississippi River Valley, temporarily stalling to our south over Iowa early next week, pulling Gulf moisture northward in the form of heavy, windswept rains. Yes, the atmosphere aloft will PROBABLY be warm enough for mostly rain late Sunday into Monday. The GFS model is hinting at some 1-2" rainfall amounts early next week. We'll see. I still don't see any bitter blasts or accumulating snow anytime soon, temperatures running 5-10 degrees above average into much of next week. Every passing day is a gift, making winter seem a bit shorter. For those of you dreading winter. If you have a hankering, an itch for snow, stay tuned. Your day is coming - watch out around Thanksgiving. That's when we often see our first significant accumulating snow event, coming when it can wreak the most havoc around Thanksiving travel time. What can possibly go wrong this year?

Monday Gulley-Washer? The GFS computer forecast for 6 am Monday shows an intense area of low pressure over Iowa, heavy rain wrapped around the storm, the heaviest bands of precipitation (yellows and reds) over southern and central Minnesota. It's early, but right now it appears that there may be enough warm air aloft for mostly rain across Minnesota, and amounts may be very significant.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Plenty of sun, light winds - stunning for mid November! Winds: SE 5-15. High: 61

Tonight: Partly cloudy, dry sky. Low: 38

Wednesday: Less sun, clouds increase during the day. High: 57

Thursday: Period of light rain likely. High: 51

Friday: More rain possible, still soggy, cool and damp. High: 49

Saturday: Brighter, drier with intervals of sun. High: 51

Sunday: Clouds increase, a cold rain arrives late in the day. High: near 50

Monday: Windy and raw with rain, possibly heavy at times. High: 47

Tuesday: Gusty and drier with more clouds than sun. High: 48

The 2009 Atlantic based hurricane season is only a couple of short weeks away from wrapping up officially, but a late season storm has developed and is heading straight for the Gulf Coast. As of 6pm Sunday, Ida was a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105mph. The latest forecast has it sustaining category 2 strength through Monday afternoon and making landfall, perhaps, as a category 1 hurricane just east of New Orleans early Tuesday. If Ida holds together, this would be the first Atlantic based hurricane in 2009 to make a U.S. landfall! There were only two other hurricanes this year in the Atlantic with "Bill" being the only true long track hurricane of the season, which lasted 9 days! Most of the activity occurred in the middle of the Atlantic this year, but there was one, lonely, tropical storm back in August that tracked through the eastern Gulf and made landfall near the Florida Panhandle - her name was Claudette. The image below will give you a better look at the storms this season:



Hurricane Ida Nears the Gulf Coast


Heavy Rain Likely - Flood Concerns Continue

The 5 day precipitation forecast for the Southeast is quite impressive - Ida will likely bring flood watches and warnings back to the forefront where heavy rain has been no stranger the past month. Heavy rains will depend on the track of the storm, which is yet to be determined... stay tuned!



Closer to Home:

Thanks Tadd Parris for this picture taken earlier this fall near sunrise. Mostly dry and quiet conditions continue this week with slightly above temperatures. Sunrises/sunsets like this will be common over the next few days... ENJOY!!



Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Dry, bright sunshine and temps above average. HOORAY! High: 58

Tonight: Clear, calm and quiet. Chilly. Low: 27

Tuesday: More sunshine! Co-workers spend a little more time at lunch, walk a little slower from their car to the office in an attempt to squeeze out every bit of the mild November weather. High: 56

Veterans Day: What a gift - thanks Vets! Mostly sunny skies out there too, so enjoy. A little cooler. High: 52

Thursday: Increasing clouds, becoming partly sunny/mostly cloudy late. High 51

Friday: Spotty shower or spritz, nothing much. High: 51

Saturday: Decreasing clouds and cooler. High 44

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 43