Update 5:00 PM. Severe storm warnings in effect for parts of the metro: hardest hit western, northern, and far southeastern metro, from Hudson to River Falls, WI. The main risk: large hail, 1"+ diameter, quarter-size, and winds gusting over 65 mph at times. Storms will quickly taper after 8 or 9 pm as the atmosphere becomes more stable.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 436 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EAST
BETHEL...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF CAMBRIDGE...AND MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

(Click on image to bring it full screen and see all detail/text)

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN SIBLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN LE SUEUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHEASTERN NICOLLET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 454 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ARLINGTON...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH OF ST PETER...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
NORSELAND...
HENDERSON...
LE SUEUR...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

Above is a look at the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, which was released Thursday, July 16th. (The Drought monitor releases a new map every Thursday) Notice how most of the Twin Cities Metro is included in the SEVERE DROUGHT. 73% of the state is considered to be either abnormally dry or in a drought.

As of 6pm Monday evening: The precipitation departure from normal since January 1st, from climate reporting stations around the state, stood like this:

Twin Cities: -7.85" Below Normal
Duluth: -4.45" Below Normal
Rochester: -4.43" Below Normal
St. Cloud: -0.70" Below Normal
International Falls: +0.80" Above Normal

Radar imagery from Monday evening showed a wall of water across northwestern Minnesota. This activity developed along a cool front that will slowly move eastward on Tuesday and may produce some fairly substantial rainfall across parts of the state.The image below shows the best guess at accumulated rainfall from 6pm Monday evening through 6pm Tuesday evening. The "X" and the numerical value (near Duluth, MN) is the largest value the weather model prints out during that time period for Minnesota. Central Minnesota will likely receive around 0.25" with some 0.50" to 1.00" amounts possible in convective showers (thunderstorms).

I am amazed by the lack of moisture and warm air this summer and especially this July. Take a look at the image below — it shows a low or a storm system just east of the Hudson Bay, which has been continually rotating cool air down through the Great Lakes. The warmer the air is, the more moisture it can hold, meaning that our lack of rain can be (somewhat) correlated to the cooler weather this summer. The jet stream, or the strong upper level winds are consistently staying to our west and south, which is the main highway for showers and thunderstorms. The dome of hot air is also holding firm across the western half of the country with record high temperatures being set nearly everyday. When will this pattern break? Extended models are showing a break in the cool weather across Minnesota by the end of the month. Upper 80's to low 90's may be possible again by then, stay tuned!
Todd's Outlook

Tuesday: Lingering showers and T-storms early, then partial clearing. High: 78

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 56

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sunshine, warmer. High: 81

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine, a nice dose of summer! High: 84

Friday: Ample sun, chance of late-day T-showers. High: 85

Saturday: Cooler under a partly sunny sky. T-storms possible far southern MN. High: 78

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with showers, windy and cool again. High: 73

Monday: Stalled pattern once more....Mostly cloudy and showery, a damp wind. High: 72