Paul Douglas

Since the weather remains quiet across Minnesota, I thought I'd share some interesting weather information from the Tropics... hey - it's hard to find stuff to talk about sometimes when it's as quiet as it's been. Don't worry the weather will change, it always does. On that note, I want to thank my Aunt, Kaye Kruse, for sending me these photos from the Bahamas. She is on vacation and was hoping to spend a little time on the beach - catch up on a little R&R, but Tropical Storm Ida has been stirring the pot in the Caribbean and causing some rough surf as far East as the Bahamas. I actually got a call from her yesterday wondering if they'd be able to catch their flight out of Dodge, which (good news) it looks like they will. Unfortunately, their beach time was cut a little short. To be honest, I actually feel somewhat guilty, like it was my fault the storm formed and disrupted their fun in the sun. The funny thing - a weather geek like me, I would have enjoyed the storm. How many of us from the Midwest can say that we've ever been through a mild tropical storm or weak hurricane? I still have that on my Bucket List, how about you?

This image is from their hotel room - not what you'd imagine seeing when booking your trip to paradise

Red Flags fly on the beach, but some insist on tempting fate anyway - lifeguards on duty to rescue those who either succumb to heavy surf or sharks. YIKES!
(YEA, I WATCHED JAWS ONE TOO MANY TIMES AS A KID - the ocean freaks me out)

Infrared Satellite of Ida


Ida Track and Sea Surface Temperatures

The storm track is outlined in white, which is also known as the cone of uncertainty. The uncertainty grows with time, thus the wider storm track as it nears the U.S. Gulf coast states. The colors you see also show sea surface temperatures, which are still warm at this time of year. The storm should be able to gather enough strength to become a category 1 or 2 hurricane today or tomorrow - stay tuned!


Modeling the Storm

Here are a number of different models that attempt to forecast the correct path. Note how they all seem to follow the same path, but a couple are printing out different calculations and are nowhere near the others. Stay tuned for further updates!



Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Increasing clouds. Light rain possible. High: near 57

Tonight: Lingering sprinkles early, then decreasing clouds. Low: 41

Monday: Cooler and mostly sunny. High: 54

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, less wind. High: 54

Wednesday (Veterans Day): Partly cloudy, still dry. High: 52

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, chance of a few showers - chilly. High: 53

Yesterday was a cool, smooth tonic for the soul. Standing by the water, watching the sun slip below a glass-like mirage of water and sky, it was hard not to get a little choked up. We see so many minor miracles - all around us - every day, yet rarely do we take the time to disconnect, and soak it all in. I'm genetically challenged in that regard: so focused on tomorrow, next week, next month, making sales, growing my companies, fixated on the bottom line, trying to insure that my employees, my friends, have stable jobs for a good long time. With all the distractions of modern life it's hard to focus in on the here and now, to take the time. I make it harder than it has to be, of course. What kind of idiot walks around with 2 cell phones? One is for R&D, or I keep telling myself that. Yep, never met a gadget (er, "productivity tool") that I didn't like. We've made it so easy to Twitter away and reach out to distant friends on Facebook, but in the process we've distracted ourselves half to death - made it very hard to get off the grid and just savor the present. Which on a day like yesterday, was in fact, a present.


Wow. This was the view that made me stop - think - and turn off both cell phones yesterday around 5 pm. The photo doesn't do it justice....

Soliloquy aside, we all NEEDED to bask in a little natural sunlight yesterday. This is a tough time of year - the pressures of the holidays are at hand, and yet Mother Nature isn't cooperating. It seems the sun sets shortly after lunchtime now - these dark days of November and December can rough on the soul. Oddly, sunshine tends to increase in January and February, thanks to fresh surges of bitter (but dry) air originating near the Arctic Circle, enough numbing air to chase the clouds to our south and east. I tell newcomers to Minnesota the truth: our coldest days of the winter are usually our sunniest days, and somehow, having blue sky and a pleading sun overhead seems to help. Call me nuts (heard it before, thank you) but I'd much rather have a string of sunny days at 10 degrees F than a week of gray and 35. But that's just me....

Hints of Indian Summer. The latest "meteogram" shows temperatures peaking near 60 both Saturday and Sunday, followed by a temperature tumble next week. Considering the normal high now is mid to upper 40s, even next week's temperatures aren't too out-of-the-ordinary for the second week of November.

November is the second cloudiest and third snowiest month of the year for most of Minnesota, so every day like Thursday is a gift from on high - every day we delay the knee-deep slush and windchill babble on the radio and TV is a victory on the Roulette Wheel of Minnesota Meteorology. The mercury peaked at 54, but Redwood Falls boasted a respectable 60, almost 13 degrees ABOVE normal, for a change - a taste of what's to come. Today the approach of a significant warm frontal boundary will spark more mid and high-level clouds, the altostratus and cirrus canopy that dims the sun. Some call it "filtered sunshine." Naive optimist that I am I prefer the term "partly sunny", which (of course) means the same thing as mostly cloudy, but let's not dwell on the negative, eh?

Snow-free through Tuesday. The latest GFS accumulated snowfall prog shows a little snowfall expected across the Rockies and portions of interior New England, but no fresh snow close to home anytime soon.
Prep Sports Forecast for Friday Football. Heading out this evening to cheer on your favorite team? Grab a jacket, but leave the rain gear at home. Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy, evening temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees, a noticeable wind whipping up from the south at 10-15. Could be worse, a lot worse.

An inch of snow fell at Duluth and Grand Rapids Wednesday, but most of that snow will be gone in time for Saturday's Deer Hunting Opener. There may be a few lingering patches of snow (in the woods) over the Minnesota Arrowhead, but don't count on much in the way of snow on the ground for tracking. Indian Summer is imminent: the models push the mercury to 60 both Saturday and Sunday over central Minnesota, some low to mid 60s possible south of the Minnesota River. Up north even Bemidji, Grand Rapids and the Minnesota Arrowhead will see highs in the low 50s both days - again - a good 10 degrees above average for the second week of November. Not bad. October was unusually chilly, and now we're going to make up for that spell (rut!) of foul, rainy, cool days with an unusually nice/sunny/mild first half of November. We will cool down into the 30s and 40s for highs by the end of next week, but some of the long-range (GFS) guidance is hinting...hinting at 50 for the weekend before Thanksgiving! No significant rain (or snow) is brewing, winds aloft blowing from the west-northwest, a "modified Pacific airmass" originating from Vancouver, not the Yukon. That will keep the coldest, single-digit daytime-high airmass well north of Minnesota for the next couple of weeks. After that it's game-on - anything can happen. For now enjoy this respite from the gray, sloppy, dark days of November. Mother Nature is showing a little remorse, after a thoroughly forgettable October. It's give and take, and (at least for the next 10-15 days) the atmosphere will attempt to make up for past sins.

Forecast for next Monday morning at 6 am. This (GFS) map shows expected rain (and snow) falling between 6 pm Sunday and 6 am Monday morning. The atmosphere should be marginally warm enough aloft for mostly-rain, although I can't rule out a little wet snow north/west of Brainerd by Monday morning - probably little or no accumulation.

Natural Disaster On The Rise. This graph made me stop and do a triple-take yesterday. Good grief - is this accurate, or are we simply doing a better job of finding and documenting the natural disasters that have always plagued the planet? Are more people simply living in harm's way? That may be a factor, but something else may be going on in the background - an environment that favors big disasters, especially since the 1980s. You can't blame every calamity on climate change, but it does make you stop and wonder. For more click over to my climate blog, "ClimateSpot".

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy with a stiff breeze. Winds: South 10-20+ High: 56 (evening temperatures dipping into the upper 40s).

Tonight: Patchy clouds, not as cold as recent nights. Low: 42

Saturday: (nicer day of the weekend). Plenty of sun, milder than average. High: 62

Sunday: Sunny start, then increasing clouds. High: near 60

Sunday night: Cloudy with a little light rain. Low: 45

Monday: Turning windy and cooler as showers taper to sprinkles. High: 53

Tuesday: Partly sunny, less wind. High: 51

Wednesday: Intervals of sun, still dry. High: 52

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, chance of a few showers - chilly. High: 46

I feel guilty showing you this - I hate to build up expectations, especially among Minnesotans hoping, praying for a "moderate" winter, one with a little less snow and a lot less arctic air swirling around. Predicting weather for January of '10 is roughly equivalent to forecasting what the Dow Jones or Nasdaq will be doing early next year - billions of potential variables, a handful (like interest rates, the strength of the dollar, etc) critical.

El Nino is strengthening, now in the "moderate" range, and growing even stronger with time. As a rule, the stronger the El Nino, the warmer the equatorial waters off the coast of Ecuador and Peru, the greater the odds of a (somewhat) milder winter from the Pacific Northwest into the Upper Midwest, including Minnesota and Wisconsin. It's not a perfect correlation (ie. there are exceptions to the rule) but it seems to work most winters. The atmosphere is an incredibly complex feedback system, next week's weather still taking shape over Siberia, but there's no question that the atmosphere often takes its cues from the ocean water it passes over. Most of Earth's surface is water, right? It just makes sense (intuitively and otherwise) that the air takes on some of the characteristics it passes over. El Nino tends to set up an unusually strong and active subtropical jet stream, guiding big, sloppy Pacific storms farther south, buffeting California before sloshing east, toward Dallas and Atlanta. Heavy rain is far more likely for the far southern states, along with more severe weather outbreaks, including rare mid-winter tornadoes from Houston to Orlando. Most El Nino winters the coldest, subzero air is bottled up a few hundred miles north of Minnesota - our prevailing jet stream winds blowing from British Columbia rather than the frozen wastelands of the Yukon. There are exceptions, of course, but the sheer volume of bitter air tends to be less during El Nino years. The problem: every El Nino is different, with their own bizarre idiosyncrasies and oddities. With the atmosphere there are no hard/fast "rules". So even with a strong El Nino in place NOAA's confidence of a milder winter for the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and Upper Midwest is roughly 60% Not great odds, right? On paper we should have a (somewhat) milder winter. On paper. In reality I'm still not convinced, in spite of El Nino's signals. My semi-educated hunch: November will be considerably milder than average, as much as 3-4 degrees warmer than usual, with less snow than average. During a typical November we pick up 8-9" of snow, making this the third snowiest month of the year! This is also the second cloudiest month, second only to December. Gloom Alert. Hey, before you know it Thanksgiving will be here, then the blur of Christmas and Hanukkah, and before you know it we'll be opening up those credit card statements - in the dark - while shivering through a bleak, subzero, January evening....


NOAA Winter Outlook for November, December and January. Cooler weather is expected for much of the south, with a 60% probability of warmer than average weather across the Rockies, Plains and Upper Midwest. Is it a sure thing? Not quite, but if you're hoping for a milder winter you should be somewhat encouraged. I'm not convinced we're going to escape the wrath of a typical Minnesota winter though - more details/reasoning below.
A Growing El Nino. NOAA graphics show unusually warm water spreading across the Pacific, accumulating off the coast of Central America, water temperatures running about 2-4 degrees F. warmer than average.

Sorry about that - didn't really think that through in advance.

All the available data is shouting "milder winter" but I'm going on the record with a prediction of a more "average" winter, temperatures closer to average. Don't get too excited (or bummed) by all the El Nino babble - not even a stain of warm Pacific water is going to save us this winter, I fear.


Wednesday Evening Surface Map. Note the lack of significant rain (or snow). This is about as quiet and dry as I can recall dating back to mid September. Mother Nature will continue to catch her breath - no mega-storms brewing through the end of next week.

24 Hour Rainfall. This graphic from the National Weather Service shows the last day's worth of rainfall, for Minnesota (or the nation). The key on the right shows amounts (about .10" fell at St. Cloud and the Twin Cities). To see this bookmark-worthy site for yourself, click here.

The rumors are true: a nice warm-up is scheduled for the weekend, 50s likely, a few thermometers over southern Minnesota may flirt with 60 by mid afternoon Saturday. We chill down early next week before another warming trend sets in the latter half of next week, more 50s seem likely, a good 5-10 degrees above average. Light jacket weather instead of heavy coat weather. I can live with that.

Deer Hunting Update. Not much has changed with the forecast. If you're heading north plan on ample sun Saturday, more clouds streaming in Sunday, dry weather likely both days. Expect early morning temperatures close to freezing, afternoon highs anywhere from 48-53 degrees, almost 10-15 degrees warmer than average. Stating the obvious: no snow for tracking. Not this year.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning. Just when you think you've seen everything! Rest assured, this is for the arctic region, north of Fairbanks. 13 foot seas, winds of 30-40 mph, a steady spray of mist that freezes (instantly) on all objects. Sounds delightful. Sign me up.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: (much nicer than yesterday). Plenty of sun, breezy, not bad for early November. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 48

Tonight: Partly cloudy and chilly. Low: 39

Friday: Patchy clouds, windy and milder. High: 56

Saturday: Ample sunshine, a hint of Indian Summer in the air. High: near 60

Sunday: Sunny start, increasing PM clouds. High: 55

Monday: Lot's of clouds, a few light rain showers. High: near 50

Tuesday: Windy, cooler and drier - intervals of sun. High: 48

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sun - cooler than average. High: 46

The Deer Hunting Opener is creeping up on us - hunters of all ages are pinging me for an updated forecast, hoping for news of freshly fallen snow ("just enough for tracking, Paul. Not enough to cause any headaches on the highways.") A reasonable request and expectation for early November. Roughly half of all Deer Hunting Openers have enough snow up north for tracking deer (at least 1-2") but there's every indication that '09 will NOT be one of those years. Quite the contrary: computer models continue to pull mild air northward late in the week, daytime highs come close to 60 over southern Minnesota from Friday into Sunday, nearly 10 degrees above average (for a change). Even up north temperatures will be warmer than normal, highs poking well into the 50s this upcoming weekend. Warm enough to babble about "Indian Summer"? That's somewhat subjective, to be honest. Indian Summer is loosely defined as any period of abnormally mild weather AFTER the first official freeze of the season. We've had our first freeze alright (at least 3 hours colder than 28, cold enough long enough to kill off all annual plant life) and weekend temperatures may fit the definition. Hey, it's America. Call it what you want!

Temperature Trend (Meteogram). The computer models are hinting that Friday & Sunday may be the two mildest days in sight, daytime highs anywhere from 55-60. High pressure overhead Saturday will mean less wind, less mixing, and cooler temperatures at the surface. After a Monday rain temperatures should cool down through the middle part of next week.

.09" of rain fell Tuesday (yes, it was fairly miserable out there in that cold rain yesterday evening). That's it for significant rain until next Monday, when a southern storm may stream more Gulf moisture northward into Minnesota, a cool quarter inch or more of rain may fall early next week. Until then count on a couple of cool days, followed by a noticeable warming trend the end of the week, setting the stage for a decent weekend.

Saturday's Predicted Highs. Temperatures statewide should be nearly 10 degrees warmer than average. The 2-4" of snow that was lingering over the Minnesota Arrowhead is largely gone - I don't expect any significant snow on the ground for the Deer Hunting Opener.


Deer Hunting for a native Minnesotan. "That's an impressive buck - how many points?" I know, I look a lot different in camouflage.

Deer Hunting for a non-Minnesotan. "Excuse me sir, in which aisle can I find fresh venison?"

Deer Hunting Weekend Preview

Saturday: Sunnier day, light winds, dry statewide. Highs range from low 50s north to upper 50s south.

Sunday: Partly sunny (more clouds), more wind (SW 10-20, gusty), still dry. Highs range from mid 50s north to 60 south.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: More clouds than sun, windy and cool. Winds: W/NW 10-20. High: 44

Tonight: Gradual clearing, frosty late. Low: near 30

Thursday: Mix of clouds and sun, a few degrees milder - closer to average. High: 48

Friday: Mostly cloudy, windy, few sprinkles possible. High: 55

Saturday: Nicer day with more sun, less wind, touch of Indian Summer. High: near 60

Sunday: Cooler with sun giving way to increasing clouds - more wind. High: 57

Monday: Gray with rain likely. High: 51

Tuesday: Drier with partial clearing, cool wind kicks in. High: 48

Wednesday: Partly sunny - still quiet. High: 46

* Light showers likely today (warm enough aloft for rain).

* Touch of Indian Summer by Saturday - 60 quite likely.

* China using weather modification to make snow, trying to ease the worst drought in nearly 40 years.

* Roughly 1 in 3 Americans now believe that global warming is a serious issue, the result of man-made greenhouse gases.

Here in the Land of Low Weather Expectations it doesn't take much to get us excited. Statewide, October will probably wind up being the third wettest and fifth coolest in modern-day records, according to University of Minnesota climatologist Mark Seeley. More evidence of imminent global cooling? Not exactly. Keep in mind September was 5.5 degrees F warmer than average; statewide it was one of the 10 warmest ever recorded for most Minnesota towns. It's easy to confuse short-term gyrations "weather", from longer-term trend, "climate".

I've said it before, but it bears repeating: weather is CNN Headline News (without Nancy Grace, please). Climate is the History Channel. Weather is "will I need shorts or a heavy jacket?". Climate is the ratio of shorts to heavy jackets in your closet at home. Three years ago roughly 77% of Americans believed that climate change was real - they agreed with a majority of the world's leading climate scientists (including NOAA, NASA and EPA) that the Earth's atmosphere was warming, and the most likely explanation was man-made greenhouse gases. According to a recent survey from Pew, that 77% number has fallen to 57%. Approximately half of all adults believe global warming is "real", and even smaller number, 36%, believe that human activities are making the atmosphere warmer, and that this constitutes a real threat.


What happened? A reaction to perceived media hype? Global warming fatigue? Ignorance, greed, apathy? A threat to our "way of life"? Perhaps it's fallout from the worst recession since the 1930s. Getting/keeping a job is a priority - believe me, I get it. I have no idea what's going on. Suspicion that it's all a scam to create new "green" technologies and enrich more greedy entrepreneurs? I scratch my head, wondering how a nation so smart, so forward-thinking, so compassionate, innovative and historically open to science, can turn away from this issue. Maybe if we ignore it - it'll just go away! Maybe. Global temperatures have leveled off a bit in recent years, but there is NO global cooling trend taking place, just a brief pause in an upward trend that has been fairly consistent for nearly 30 years. Profound and troubling changes are still being observed, especially over the Arctic region and Greenland.

Climate scientists don't pretend to have all the answers - that's the problem with science: it always generates more questions. But that doesn't mean we should ignore a large and growing body of science that all points in the same direction. The fact that thousands of PhD's from around the world all agree (on anything) is a pretty big deal. Much of the lingering doubt can be traced to lobbyists, think tanks and "institutes" with deep pockets and a vested interest in maintaining the status quo.

Misinformation, disinformation, obfuscation - whatever it takes to keep a seed of doubt alive in the minds of the American public.”The science isn’t settled – party on dude!” Psychologists tell us that, when confronted with something that is too big, too scary, especially something over which we all seem to be powerless, most people simply shut down, they choose to turn away, they simply can’t or won’t confront it. Global warming has become this generation’s ultimate boogeyman; a punchline for jokes, the ultimate conundrum.

My fear: it will probably take a string of weather and climate catastrophes, a few more “Katrinas”, a handful of epic floods, deadly heat waves or crippling droughts, before we focus on the issue, and give it the time and attention it truly deserves. All too often we tend to be reactionary, knee-jerk reactions and calls for instant-solutions. But in the case of climate there are no quick, painless fixes. It requires a global solution, a level of cooperation and coordination among nations that we’ve never seen. Can we wait? Let’s hold off for a few more years (or decades) until there is absolutely no question what’s going on – no dissent, 100% agreement. What’s wrong with this “solution”? By the time the last piece ofthe climate puzzle snaps into place it will be too late to do anything about it. The die will be cast, or fate sealed. We will have no choice but to adapt to this brave new, warmer, stormier, drier world. America will adapt, I have no doubt in my mind. The problem (and here is where it becomes a moral issue) is that those with the least, the poorest people living in the poorest countries will be impacted the most. Hey, the generals in the Pentagon seem to believe this is a serious national security issue: one that will result in mass dislocations, water wars, civil strife, with a direct impact on our nation, our resources, our way of life. We can deal with it now, or we can delay, and deal with an even bigger boogeyman 20 years from now, in essence dumping this into the laps of our kids and grandkids. Call me crazy but I still believe there’s something inherently disgusting, immoral and cowardly in this approach. Our kids and grandkids are not going to be very happy.

So much for polls (and the notion of two steps forward, one step back). Shifting gears back to weather, I’m happy to report that my prediction of one last gasp of Indian Summer seems to be on track. It may even come true! I can't promise 70, but at this point I'd be happy to settle for 60 degrees in the shade, and that now seems likely by Saturday. First we'll have to muddle through some light (rain) showers today, a cold wind on Wednesday, followed by a slow warming trend by week's end. I still don't see any massive storms, although the chance of rain will increase by Sunday night and Monday morning. The pattern looks stormier for both coasts, sloppy storms for the eastern seaboard and a series of powerful Pacific storms slamming into the west coast - relatively quiet weather over the nation's midsection. No soakers, no accumulating snow, no record cold - just a brief, fleeting (well-timed) reminder of just how phenomenal a Minnesota autumn can be.

Man-made snow? A worker clears snow on the Great Wall of China, north of Beijing, Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2009. City authorities said snow which fell on Tuesday was artificially induced in an attempt to reduce the effects of a drought. (Greg Baker/AP Photo ) For more on this "state-sponsored" attempt to manufacture precipitation click here and read more from ABC News.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy, light showers/sprinkles likely by midday/afternoon. Winds: S 10-20. High: 47

Tonight: Lingering clouds, turning cooler. Low: 36

Wednesday: More clouds than sun, windy and cool. High: 45

Thursday: A mix of clouds and sun, brisk. High: 49

Friday: Increasing clouds, windy - a few sprinkles possible. High: 54

Saturday: A touch of Indian Summer. Partly sunny and mild. High: 61

Sunday: Fading sun, clouds increase by PM hours. High: 58

Monday: Period of rain, tapering off to showers. High: 48

Tuesday: Gusty and colder with lot's of clouds. High: 45

Enjoying Autumn? October was a thoroughly forgettable month - 4.5 degrees F. cooler than average, the third wettest October since modern-day records were first started around 1891 (6.02" of rain and melted snow accumulated in local rain gauges, that's nearly three times the normal for the month of October). We had far more days with rain (and snow) than usual, more gray days than usual - I'm starting to think the only thing sustaining us is Vikings Fever. The exploding purple & gold front advancing down Lambeau Field yesterday has made up for a lot of atmospheric sins in recent weeks. Everyone is preoccupied with #4, mesmerized by 7-1, hypnotized by hype, hope and an early, infectious case of playoff madness. I know it's early, but we can all dream, right?



El Nino is strengthening, but this may not be the garden-variety version of Pacific Ocean warming that shoves the storm track south from San Diego to Dallas and Atlanta, keeping Minnesota in more of a moderate westerly flow vs. a toe-curling parade of flakey fronts direct from the Arctic Circle. I'm getting a vibe (for lack of a more scientific term) from a number of meteorologists I respect who are leaning toward a MUCH colder than normal winter for the eastern half of the USA, significant warmer than average west of the Mississippi. Yep, that would leave us teeter-tottering right on the edge, the boundary separating numbing air from the Yukon from 40-degree air wafting in from Seattle. If I had to place a bet I'd go significant warmer for the Dakotas, statistically colder than average for Wisconsin and the Great Lakes. My confidence level isn't terribly high (it never is beyond a week to 10 days). But everyone wants to know what the winter will be like - everyone is (at least a little) paranoid that a chilly October is an omen of what's to come. There is no correlation between cold Octobers and the following winter. I wouldn't read to much into our damp, gray (miserable) October. Look at the bright side: the drought has eased - no more severe/extreme drought anywhere in the state - and farmers are in fantastic shape. Soil moisture is adequate over most of the Minnesota farm belt; we'll at least go into the '10 spring planting season with ample water in the ground. O.K. Hard to celebrate soil moisture, but it's a start! How low my expectations have fallen.

October Temperature Departures. It turns out southwestern Minnesota saw the greatest extremes, October readings 6-9 degrees F. cooler than average.

October Precipitation. Almost the entire state saw twice as much rain as normal, many southwestern counties saw 3 times the normal amount of rain for October.

BTW, today is Day 4 of Paul's Big Swine Flu Adventure. No limbs or appendages have fallen off, in fact I feel pretty good, under the circumstances. I'm paranoid that I'll be sucker-punched by this pesky little H1N1 bug; my doctor warned me that there are many cases where people start feeling great, only to be hit across the head with a 2 by 4, stricken with pneumonia 5-7 days into their illness. So it's a little early to celebrate, but so far I've only really had one truly nasty day - Friday, when my lungs felt like they were filling up with sulfuric acid. My point: if you do start to run a fever there's an excellent chance it is (indeed) swine flu - the same doctor told me that the regular, seasonal flu has yet to rear its head in Minnesota. A whopping 99.6% of people who come down with H1N1 have a few rough days and then recover. It's that .4% that's really capturing the attention of the media, especially when otherwise healthy 4 year olds and pregnant moms wind up on ventilators in the local intensive care unit.

After a blustery Halloween (wasn't that full moon great?) Cue the full moon please. We salvaged a mostly-gorgeous Sunday(52 at St. Cloud, but 58 in the Twin Cities, 60 at Rochester, and a swoon-inducing 61 at Redwood Falls). So we did see a few 60s after all - a wondrous, fleeting taste of Indian Summer. Optimist that I am I think much of Minnesota will see more 50s, even a few more 60s before the flakes start to accumulate. We're due for a few more days of shirtsleeve weather bliss before winter swirls into town in all its glory.

Tuesday appears to be the wettest day of what should be a mostly-dry week, latest computer models print out roughly a quarter inch of rain (possibly mixed with wet snow north of Little Falls and Lake Mille Lacs). Temperatures this week should run a few degrees cooler than average, but a nice warming trend kicks in by Sunday, when the mercury may hit 60 close to home. The models cool us off during the second week of November - the warmest weather will probably come next weekend. One last chance to drive down Highway 61 toward Lake City and Winona? There's still plenty of color out there over southeastern Minnesota, but it's going fast. Enjoy a cool, quiet Monday - and what should be a fairly reasonable spell of weather (at least for the first week of November).



Extended Outlook for the USA. Hints of Indian Summer? Based on sea surface temperatures and prevailing jet stream winds CPC, the Climate Prediction Center, is suggesting a significantly warmer than normal spell of weather for much of America - the bulls-eye almost directly over the Upper Midwest. Yes, the second week of November may just make up for some of those chilling, miserable days of October.

November 2, 1991. The "Halloween Superstorm" dumped 28.4" of snow on the Twin Cities, closer to 15" on St. Cloud. 3-5 foot drifts were common from the Twin Cities northward to Taylors Falls, Duluth and the Minnesota Arrowhead. Duluth was buried under nearly 37" of snow, and that didn't include the drifts! It was the biggest single snowfall ever recorded for much of eastern Minnesota, including Minneapolis and St. Paul. Literally off the charts. For more information scroll down for a Superstorm recap.

For more on the infamous Halloween Superstorm, click here for some great information from the Minnesota Climatology Office. It may conjure up some wild memories!


Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Partly sunny, breezy and cooler than average. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 47

Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy - frosty. Low: 31

Tuesday: Clouds increase, a few (rain) showers by afternoon, mixed with wet snow far northern MN. High: 43

Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sun - brisk. High: 45

Thursday: Lot's of clouds, a few passing sprinkles/flurries possible. High: 41

Friday: Fading sun as clouds increase, a few sprinkles possible - windy. High: 46

Saturday: More sun, less wind, cool (but fairly pleasant). High: 49

Sunday: Dim sun, breezy - a big taste of Indian Summer possible! High: 58 (60 is not out of the question).

"Yep, looks like you have H1N1," the doctor muttered under her breath, doing her best to stay as far away from me as humanly possible. Say what? It took a few seconds for that to sink in, but now my worst fear was confirmed. Friday morning at 4 am I woke up, shivering uncontrollably. I piled on a few blankets - didn't help. My wife (Laurie) convinced me to go to Urgent Care, and that's where I got the diagnosis. "Just about all the flu we're seeing out there right now is H1N1," the doctor told me at Park Nicollet in Chanhassen. "We're not seeing the seasonal flu yet - this is all swine flu." Anything I can do? She shook her head. "We have Tamiflu, but only for high-risk patients, kids under 5, pregnant women, people with preexisting medical conditions. Sorry. Drink plenty of fluids, if your fever goes above 104 come back in. That, and if you can't breathe." Oh, great.

I went home - dazed, groggy, aching all over, and proceeded to take a nap, only to wake up feeling worse than I thought possible. The doc had explained that swine flu is respiratory-related (that's why she asked if I had asthma or smoked). No and no, thank God. But when I was sleeping all the fluids collected in my lungs - I woke up WHEEZING, sounds coming out of my lungs I've never heard before, like there was water collecting down there. And every time I tried to cough it up it felt like my lungs were being plugged into an AC wall socket. Like I was coughing up fireballs. Electric pain. Not to get too detailed here (TMI) but like most other things in life, the fear of H1N1 is probably worse than the reality.

"99.6% of people don't have to go on ventilators. Most people recover after a week or so, but you can't go out into public - and risk infecting others - until 24 hours after your fever breaks." She warned me about pneumonia, told me that many people didn't see pneumonia symptoms until 5-7 days into their illness. Great! Have a nice day.

No idea how I caught it - I've been stuck on 8 different planes during the last 2-3 weeks, so God only knows where I contracted this cute little bug, but I'm down for the count for a few days - have just enough strength and stamina to punch a few keys on my laptop, update you on Halloween '09, and the crazy, soggy-cool October of '09, peer ahead (cautiously) into the first 10 days of November.

Weather Headlines

Dry Halloween, but temperatures 10 degree below normal will make for chilly Trick or Treat conditions.

Don't forget to "fall back" one hour late tonight as Daylight Saving Time ends.

5th wettest October (5.52", wettest since 1971), 4th coolest on record....fewest number of 60-degree days since 1925!

50s return Sunday, series of weak, clipper-like disturbances next week - no more major soakings (or snow) in sight.


El Nino getting stronger - increasing odds of a milder winter (I know, hard to believe right now).

Today's Predicted Weather map at 1 pm. Thursday's soaker is lifting into northeastern Canada, dragging a cold front down the east coast, a weak warm front pushing across the Dakotas. Dry weather should be the rule this Halloween across Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Halloween 'Cast: partly cloudy, breezy, cool and dry. Trick or Treat temperature: 38-41. Wind chill: 25-29.


Expect leftover clouds, even a few sprinkles/flurries out there today, although most of the flakes will be confined to the Minnesota Arrowhead. Skies may even try to clear a bit as the day wears on, temperatures stuck in the 30s with a stinging northwest wind. As winds swing around to the southwest tomorrow temperatures should reach the 50s by afternoon, a few showers (rain or snow) skirting far northern Minnesota.

No big, beefy storms are brewing for next week, just a series of weak Alberta Clippers, each one preceded by clouds and a few light showers, each one followed by a weak, reinforcing shot of chilly air. Highs should be mostly in the 40s to low 50s, the only real chance of (rain) showers coming Thursday night. We're still due for a real outbreak of Indian Summer, but I just don't see it, at least not through the first 2 weeks of November. I predicted one more run of 60s, but at this rate it may take a minor miracle to get that kind of warmth into town. I wouldn't rule it out, but the odds drop off now (rapidly) with each passing day.

Enjoy Halloween, be safe out there. Don't forget to turn your clocks back one hour before turning in late tonight. And count your blessings - good health is one of those things we all tend to take for granted, until we lose it. I'll be popping ibuprofen, drinking plenty of fluids, trying to avoid infecting my wife (and friends). Probably not one of my better Halloweens.....

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Halloween: Clouds and flurries giving way to partial clearing later today, a cold wind. Winds: NW 15-25, under 15 mph by the dinner hour. High: 45

Saturday night: (set your clocks back one hour before bedtime). Partly cloudy, chilly. Low: 34

Sunday: Clouds increase, breezy and milder. A few rain/snow showers over far northern MN. High: 56

Monday: Turning cooler again, lot's of clouds, a cold wind. High: 49

Tuesday: More sun, less wind expected. High: 50

Wednesday: Plenty of sun, "near normal" again. High: 53

Thursday: Sunny start, clouds increase, a few (rain) showers Thursday night. High: 48

Friday: Unsettled, another shower or sprinkle. High: 46

Please don't adjust your PC. The photo below was not from a nearby town, I'm happy to report. No reruns of '91, when Minnesota was in the grip of a once-in-a-lifetime storm, the dreaded "Halloween Superstorm". 28" of snow fell in a little over 2 days as a massive storm stalled over the Great Lakes, prolonging the snow bands wrapping into Minnesota, leaving behind some 3-5 FOOT drifts and a state full of stunned residents. Just when thought we had seen everything. It was a storm for the ages, and no, statistically speaking, we probably won't have to endure anything that crazy ever again in our lifetimes. Statisticians explained that it was a 1 in 500 year event, but I'm not so sure. The way our weather patterns seem to be trending (more extremes, less "normal weather") my confidence level isn't as high as I'd like to see it.


Denver SuperStorm. This photo, courtesy of CBS4 in Denver, was taken in Highlands Ranch, Colorado, just outside of Denver, where 16-25" of snow was reported.

Denver residents had their own personal, Superstorm yesterday, a cool 16" at the airport, but I saw some 22-25" amounts in the west suburbs. The town of Pinecliffe picked up 44" of snow, nearly 4 FEET piled up! Not drifts - actual accumulating snow! Enough warm streamed north ahead of the storm to keep our precipitation falling as rain, nearly .50" fell, but over 1" of rain was observed in Rochester, closer to 1.3" down in Austin, near the Iowa border. Although the heaviest, steadiest rains are over - pushing east across Wisconsin into Michigan - a few windblown showers and sprinkles will greet you as you head out and about today, temperatures falling through the 50s into the 40s as winds swing around to the west. The good news (for those of us not quite ready to be plastered in white) is that by the time it's cold enough aloft for snow, the vast majority of the moisture will be pinwheeling to our east toward the Great Lakes. Over a foot of snow piled up in the Black Hills of South Dakota, it's a winter wonderland a few hundred miles west of town, but just puddles (and wet leaves) in your path today. Computer models (NAM) print out another .10 to .20" of rain today, mostly light and showery - not as heavy as it was Thursday, but count on soggy, raw conditions for Friday evening football games as temperatures dip into the 30s, a stiff wind making it feel more like 20-25.

Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimates. This is a derived product from the MPX (Twin Cities) Doppler located in Chanhassen Minnesota. Note the heaviest amounts (yellow/orange) near Austin and Albert Lea, where well over 1" of rain was reported on Thursday.

Twin Cities Almanac: October temperatures running 6.6 F. cooler than average for the month.

Halloween Update. The good news: it won't rain (or snow!) Expect Trick or Treat temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40, a stubborn wind from the northwest creating a stinging wind chill of 25-30. We've seen worse, yes. The stars may be poking through tomorrow evening, a partly cloudy sky likely over central and southern counties. Of course the Witch Watch and Werewolf Warning remains posted for the entire area - I expect some unspeakably horrifying objects to show up on Doppler Radar tomorrow evening. You'll be fine (as long as you don't hand out toothpaste or apples to Trick or Treaters).

Saturday looks chilly, temperatures running 5-10 degrees below average (keep in mind compared to Denver residents we're getting off easy). Sunday looks better, milder as winds pick up from the south - afternoon highs poking well up into the 50s. A weak clipper-like system may spread a few light showers (rain/snow - looks like a mix) over the northern third of Minnesota Sunday, but odds favor dry weather for central and southern counties of our fair state. Nothing too controversial shaping up for next week, daytime highs ranging from the upper 40s to the mid 50s - most of the moisture sliding off to our south.

We just survived/endured/tolerated one of the coolest, wettest Octobers in Minnesota history. This, coming after one of the driest, warmest Septembers we've ever seen. Kind of makes you wonder what magic tricks Mother Nature has up her sleeve for November. What can possible go wrong, eh?

NAM Outlook for 1 pm Saturday. Looks like a dry Halloween statewide this year with a cool northwest wind, a few breaks in the clouds, temperatures falling through the low 40s into the upper 30s during Trick or Treat time. I guess, all things considered, we should be counting our atmospheric blessings.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy, turning windy and cooler with a few showers and sprinkles likely. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 46, falling into the 30s by late afternoon.

Tonight: Leftover clouds, sprinkles, even a few stray flurries. Low: 36

Halloween: Becoming partly sunny, breezy - still cooler than average. High: 45 (Trick or Treat temperatures dipping into the upper 30s, but dry weather is expected).

Sunday: Increasing clouds, milder. Chance of a few showers of rain/snow up north (should stay dry most of the day close to home). High: 55

Monday: Mostly cloudy, cooler than normal. High: 49

Tuesday: More sun, a few degrees milder. High: 51

Wednesday: Intervals of sun, quiet and dry. High: 52

The rain on the Plains falls mainly on....Minnesota. At least this month. If we pick up another .80" or so we'll set a new October rainfall record. Just over 5" of rain has already soaked the region this month, 2-3 times the normal amount (yes, the drought is pretty much history). The good news: farmers are breathing a huge sigh of relief statewide. Soil moisture is being recharged - trees and shrubs have gotten a long, cool drink. All this rain arrived in time to do some real good, to soak deep into the ground before cold temperatures had a chance to freeze up the top 1-2 feet of topsoil. The bottom line: we'll be in great shape for the '10 planting season.

An approaching storm will tap Gulf moisture today, some of the rain will be moderate to heavy from this afternoon into late tonight. The latest models are hinting at over 1" of rain by the breakfast hour tomorrow. On the backside of the storm wind shift to the southwest tomorrow morning, the rain quickly tapers off, and temperatures begin to tumble Friday afternoon as winds blow from the west/northwest, setting the stage for a cool Halloween.

The good news? Halloween '09 doesn't look quite as chilly as it did a couple days ago. Temperatures should peak in the mid to upper 40s with Trick Or Treat temperatures around 40, possibly upper 30s over central Minnesota. Computer models are hinting at a stubborn wind around the dinner hour Saturday, sustained at 10-15 with gusts as high as 20 mph. So there WILL be a noticeable whiff of windchill. Factoring in the wind it will FEEL like mid 20s at times, so a few extra layers are still advised underneath those crazy costumes.

Another full latitude low pressure system. From space storms look like "comma clouds" or giant, sprawling atmospheric question marks. Fitting. The slow forward motion of today's storm will give it enough time to ingest moisture from the Gulf of Mexico - shooting it north in the form of moderate rain from this afternoon into much of tonight, resulting in some 1"+ amounts.

Rainfall Meteogram. All the weather models agree that significant rain should fall later today, anywhere from .5 to 1.2", but there's still a fair amount of disagreement between the various weather simulations. Ah, the joy of weather prediction. The more the computers agree, the more our "confidence level" rises...

The Perils of Prognostication. This is why meteorologists have gray hair (if they have any hair left at all). Check out the [amazing] contrasts in predicted rainfall across the region. The heaviest 1.5"+ amounts are forecast to fall from the Twin Cities on south and east toward Albert Lea and Rochester. Meanwhile less than .50" is forecast to fall west of St. Cloud.

Daylight Saving Time kicks in late Saturday night (an extra hour of sleep this weekend as we all "fall back" - hooray!) The downside: the sun will set around 5 pm Sunday. Yes, we're sliding into the dark days of winter - a lack of sunlight seems to effect more people than the actual cold itself. I'm thinking about investing in a full-spectrum reading lamp this winter. Most lamps only shine with one frequency. Full spectrum lights have multiple frequencies, mimicking the sun, and they've been proven to pull many SAD (seasonal affective disorder) sufferers out of their cold, dark funk. Check with a doctor first, but consider a full spectrum light. Treat yourself - you won't be disappointed.

Temperatures trend a few degrees below normal much of next week, highs mostly stuck in the 40s north and the low 50s south, but models are hinting at a glimpse of Indian Summer by next weekend, the first full weekend of November. It's early to get too specific, but the GFS model is suggesting a shot at 60 by November 7-8. After the chilling October we've all been muddling through we are (statistically) due for a temperature turnaround, a brief upward blip in the mercury, one last romp with Indian Summer. We're due, and Mother Nature may just oblige.


Halloween Details. According to NOAA Saturday highs should be in the mid 40s across much of the area, but only low 40s over far northern counties. The sun should be out part of the day, virtually no chance of any rain (or snow) to complicate late-day Trick or Treating. Below you can see predicted wind speeds for 5 pm Saturday, showing sustained winds of 10-15, with gusts over 20 mph at times. Expect a stinging windchill when you take the kids out late Saturday.


Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Cloudy with rain likely (heavier and steadier by afternoon/evening). Winds: East 10-20. High: 55

Tonight: Rain lingers, wet roads. Low: 45

Friday: Rain tapers, turning windy and cooler with lot's of clouds and a few sprinkles. High: 46 (falling into the 30s by late afternoon).

Saturday: Partly cloudy, breezy and cool (dry for Trick or Treating). High: 51 (winds NW 10-20)

Saturday night: Mostly clear, chilly. Low: 35 (Daylight Saving Time - extra hour of sleep!)

Sunday: Increasing clouds, chance of a few showers/sprinkles by PM. High: 48

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, seasonably cool. High: near 50

Tuesday: Dim sun, high clouds increase. High: 53

Wednesday: Partly sunny, turning slightly cooler (still dry). High: 49

No cause for panic in the streets. We're not talking 1991 here. No 30" of snow over 3 days. With any luck that was a once-in-a-lifetime weather event (one that none of us who lived through those days will ever forget). My oldest son, Walt, was 1 - this was his first Trick-or-Treat memory, he was dressed up like a pirate. My camera was ready - this would be an exciting adventure! Not quite. All I remember is walking back in the house - the entire left side of his costume was plastered under 2" of snow - my boy wanted no part of Halloween. Frankly, I was starting to feel the same way. I remember going on the air at KARE-TV, going out on a limb, predicting 4-8" of snow from this unusual, early-season snowstorm.

25" later the flakes finally - mercifully - stopped flying. Travel was impossible, roads impassable - the heavy, wet snow (2-3 feet across most of the metro) dropped tree limbs, cutting off power. There were still leaves on the trees (!) and that made a bad situation even worse. The final indignity: there was so much snow in my driveway that the chief engineer at Channel 11 had to drive out to Orono in his Suburban to pick me up to do the shows. My poor Saab couldn't even make it out the garage door. 4-wheel drive? Didn't matter. There was THAT much snow. By this time I was convinced the whole thing was a dream, it all seemed surreal, otherworldly. You just can't get 30" of snow in late October and the the first 2 days of November. That just doesn't happen, even in Minnesota, where we see every kind of weather extreme imaginable. The storm smashed records left and right - it was THE story for weeks to come.

What happened? How could the forecasts be off by that much? "Paul, what the heck happened to your computer models. Are you playing Pong on the computer instead of looking at the weather?" Hahaha! Good one. Hindsight is always 20-20. But here's what (apparently) went down. Off the coast of New England "The Perfect Storm" (yes, the one immortalized by author Sebastian Junger) had unexpectedly stalled, whipping up hurricane force gusts and 50 foot seas. That stalled storm forced the storm over the Great Lakes to stall - again, unexpectedly, and that's why we picked up a cool 2-3 FEET of snow in a little over 2 days. The computer models all insisted that the pattern was "progressive" (ie. weather systems would continue to move along). In reality, the storm over the Great Lakes wobbled over the same location for nearly 36 hours, long enough to drop several hundred million TONS of snow on Minnesota. It was a storm for the ages, and there is a high probability we'll never see another storm of that ferocity and duration that early in the winter season ever again. I say that will all due respect and humility. That storm taught meteorologists a painful lesson: the limits of computer technology - that in spite of massive supercomputers and the best intentions there will always be (extreme) weather events that are still unpredictable - fickle - unknowable. Yes, Mother Nature always get the last laugh.


Getting Closer. Here is the latest GFS Outlook for accumulated snow. This tends to overpredict snowfall amounts, but 3-6" of snow may pile up over the central Dakotas by Friday afternoon, a couple inches for far northern Minnesota by Saturday PM - just in time for Halloween.

84 Hour GFS Outlook. The heaviest rain bands are forecast to set up over the southeastern third of Minnesota Thursday, some 1"+ amounts can't be ruled out, especially south/east of the Twin Cities. The very latest model run backs off on the amounts a bit, closer to 2/3rds of an inch of rain for MSP. Thursday still looks like the wettest day of the week.


Yesterday was a sight for sore (gray) eyes - nice to see the sun is still capable of shining on Minnesota - a fine fall day with highs poking into the mid 50s, a couple degrees ABOVE average for a change. Today won't be quite as bright as clouds lower and thicken, but dry weather should prevail throughout the day, a few light showers brushing far western Minnesota by the dinner hour. If you have something planned outside later today - no worries. It will look (and smell) like rain with gusty south winds, but I think most of the puddles will hold off until Thursday, when commute times may double, even triple, with considerable water on the highways. By Friday winds swing around to the west and northwest, temperatures tumble through the 40s into the 30s - it may be cold enough aloft for a little wet snow by late afternoon. The good news (if you're not quite ready for a coating of white on your lawn) is that by the time it's cold enough for snow, most of the moisture will be pinwheeling to our east into Wisconsin. A surge of chilling air follows the storm, daytime temperatures stranded in the 30s most of Saturday, just breaking 40 over the southern third of the state. It promises to be a chilly Halloween, temperatures at least 10 degrees colder than average with some leftover flurries over the Minnesota Arrowhead.

Meteogram for MSP. This future temperature trend shows temperatures peaking Thursday (with gusty, rain-whipped southerly winds), followed by a sharp temperature drop Friday. Trick or Treat temperatures are forecast to be somewhere between 35-40 degrees. Factor in a 15 mph wind and you have a wind chill dipping into the low 20s at times. Make sure there's a hefty jacket or a few extra layers underneath those crazy costumes.

Expect a mostly cloudy, blustery Saturday - the sun may peek through over far southern Minnesota, while flurries coat lawns/fields over far northern Minnesota (an inch or two may even pile up). Sunday will start out with some sunshine, but clouds increase, a good chance of PM showers (probably rain south, but mixed with wet snow over the northern third of Minnesota, north of Brainerd). Temperatures will trend cooler than average into next week, highs mostly in the 40s and low 50s. Still no imminent sign of Indian Summer. Still waiting. At this rate it may be a long wait...

Observed Snow. I was surprised to see 2-4+" of snow on the ground over parts of the Minnesota Arrowhead - enough snow on the ground for some cross country skiing up in the BWCA this weekend? The ski season is starting a few weeks early this year, no question.

To see the latest snowfall reports for the USA (or zoom into the northern Plains and Great Lakes) click over to the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center. Some good stuff here.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Clouds increase and thicken, windy - but dry. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 52

Tonight: Cloudy, a growing chance of a shower. Low: 46

Thursday: Gray with rain likely. High: 55

Friday: Gusty, turning colder with showers tapering (possibly ending as a few wet snowflakes Friday PM). High: near 53, but falling through the 40s during the day.

Halloween: More clouds than sun, a chilly breeze. High: 42 (Trick or Treat temperatures near 35).

Sunday: Sunny start, then clouds increase, PM showers possible. High: 44

Monday: Lingering clouds, a few sprinkles possible. High: 46

Tuesday: Sun reappears (finally!). A bit milder. High: 52