Graves internal polling shows him trailing Bachmann by 2 points, 47-45
Political blogger Blois Olson is reporting Tuesday afternoon that internal polling for DFL congressional candidate Jim Graves shows him within 2 points of incumbent Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann in the 6th District.
Says Olson's blog:
"The polling memo shows Graves trailing by 2 percentage points 47 to 45. The significance for Graves is that this is after a few weeks of Bachmann ads against him. It is also notable that Bachmann's numbers haven't changed significantly. With three weeks left to go this race is more competitive than most people thought it would be."
However, on Monday a poll from KSTP and SurveyUSA showed Bachmann with a 9-point lead over Graves.
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Comments (3)
So let's average the two internal polls
and we get about a 4 point spread, which sounds reasonable.
I think that polling has become a game of diminishing
returns. I, personally, was contacted 6 times this weekend asking me to take a "short poll". In each case, I refused. But it made me wonder...
1 - If these polls are truly random, and there are millions of people in the state (millions more in the country), how in the world could I statistically be contacted 6 times in one weekend when the average poll is based on 1000 people's responses?
2 - My wife is a physician and we have an unpublished number. So, how did 6 different polling groups even get our number?
3 - How many people, like me, are simply refusing to answer any more poll questions because of how frequently we are being contacted? How big a factor is that in the polling "error"? I'm thinking it is got to be getting bigger.
It will be interesting this year to see just how accurate the polls are to the election results. I think we will see more than a few "misses".
I've got $10
...that says Bachmann wins by double digits.... Any takers?