Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com includes Gov. Tim Pawlenty, although not particularly positively, in a look at the universe of Republican candidates for president in 2012.

Silver divides the candidates into four categories:

• Conservative insiders/technocrats. Mitt Romney, Bobby Jindahl, Jeb Bush and others.
  
• Conservative outsiders/populists. Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee.
  
• Moderate outsiders/populists. Ron Paul and New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson are included here, along with Pawlenty. (Says Silver: "Tim Pawlenty fits vaguely into this category (especially if one believes that having a mullet gives you populist cred). But I've also never particularly understood what Pawlenty's appeal is supposed to be: he got a fair amount of free airtime during the Republican veepstakes last year and didn't leave much of an impression.")
  
• Moderate insiders/technocrats. Charlie Crist, Utah Gov. John Huntsman.

He concludes:

"Ask me again in a year or so. But I think it's not too early to be talking about this stuff, because the primary wars are also a proxy war for the future of the party."