In a way, the new Republican majority in the Legislature couldn't have written a better script for today's much awaited and much dreaded economic forecast.

Short term, not so bad; a small surplus through June, in fact.

But for the next two-year cycle, the economists say the budget sky is falling. Again.

They're projecting a $6.2 billion deficit for fiscal years 2012-13. (All the projections and background material are available on the Minnesota Management and Budget Department website.)

And major structural problems in the budget doom the state to further deficits down the road, said Steve Sviggum, the new MMB commissioner, at today's briefing.

Drastic action is needed, Sviggum and the state's other forecasters said.

Republicans repeat calls for cuts
That call reinforces what the Republican lawmakers campaigned for in their successful take-over of the Legislature — spending cuts. Living within our means is their oft-repeated mantra.

Not that anyone would ever wish for so much red ink on the state's ledgers, but this scenario does provide additional ammunition to the Republicans, who claim that state spending is out of control and needs some long-term solutions.

"This reaffirms what the voters told us — spend within your means," said Rep. Kurt Zellers, the incoming House speaker.

"We're going to do as Minnesota families and business owners are doing: live within our means and not go back to the taxpayers and ask for more money," he said.

Another plus for Republicans — the current small surplus of about $400 million in the current biennium's budget, which runs through June — means Pawlenty won't have to make another round of unpopular unallotments to bring the current budget into balance. And the new majorities won't have to tackle end-of-fiscal-year problems right away, as they're acclimating to their new roles and getting up to speed on logistics.

DFL, Dayton quick to react
Today's news elicited the much-used DFL response from Sen. Tom Bakk, the outgoing Senate Tax Committee chairman: Sure, Minnesota families make cuts and sacrifices in hard times, but sometimes they have to go out and get a second job.

Bakk was part of the DFL team responding to the forecast. And he predicted that the state will, somehow, have to bring in some new revenue to solve the long-term problem.

"We need real solutions that will focus on the middle-class families that are suffering in this economy," Bakk said.

Paul Thissen, the new House minority leader, said the DFLers in the House are looking forward to working with Republicans, as they "turn from campaign rhetoric to the reality of governing."

And he said he will not accept any budget proposals that favor large corporate interests over middle-class families.

Republican lawmakers said they will make it a priority to protect children, nursing homes and people who are disabled while making their cuts. Zellers said another priority is making sure Minnesotans are safe and secure.

DFLer Thissen, though, said he fears that balancing the budgets will mean nursing homes closing, people with disabilities not getting services, more schools going to four-day weeks and colleges making large tuition increases.

Responding moments ago to the forecast, Mark Dayton said the projected deficit, which is $593 million worse than the previous forecast, makes it extremely important for the governor recount process to be completed in time for him to take office, as scheduled, on Jan. 3, and get started on the budget fix.

He said he has no specific proposals for cuts yet, but that an increased tax on high-income earners — which he pushed during the campaign — will be in his proposed budget, even though it's been rejected by Republican legislators.

Dayton said if the recount works out as expected, he and the Legislature will face the "very difficult task" of fixing a shortfall that equals about 19 percent of the state's projected biennial budget.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty "left us in a terrible situation," he said.

Pawlenty touts fiscal accomplishments
The governor, not surprising, saw things differently.

Today's short-term forecast led the governor to send out a press release headlined: "Pawlenty Ends Term With Budget Surplus."

In a statement that should look good on a presidential candidate's resume, the governor said:

"Our plan to control government spending, stop tax increases and support private sector economic development has worked Every budget during my time in office has been balanced, we leave with money in the bank and one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation. If government lives within its means, the next budget is manageable."

But even Republican legislators acknowledged that much of the recent budget solutions have involved so-called one-time initiatives, such as the federal stimulus funds and K-12 funding shifts that delay payments to school districts.

And those may not be there for future fixes.

New Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch said: "We're ready to make a lot of tough decisions [on spending cuts]. That one-time money, the shifts, won't be available to us."

As to which cuts might be made,  Zellers said "it's premature to talk about specifics at this point."

He did say that the possibility of cutting corporate state taxes as a way to stimulate job creation will be on the table.

No quick fix foreseen
State Economist Tom Stinson says the state's economy won't get appreciably better for two years. And there's no inflation figured into the state forecast, which, on paper, saves about $1 billion.

Looking ahead to continued problems, Pawlenty also proposed today that the state adopt a new constitutional amendment that would limit state spending to the amount of revenue actually taken in by the state in the previous budget period.

He'd like Minnesotans to vote on this wording:

Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to require that state government general fund expenditures be limited to the amount of actual general fund revenues received by the state in the previous two-year budget period?

He'd include a provision allowing for additional expenditures to provide for the public peace, safety, or health in the event of a declared national security or peacetime emergency.