Less than 48 hours into the free agent signing period, the Minnesota Timberwolves have dramatically revamped their roster and signaled a philosophical change in how they propose to contend for a playoff spot in the 2013-14 season.
First, on Tuesday afternoon the Wolves reached an agreement to re-sign Chase Budinger for three years at a cost of approximately $16 million (none of these contracts can be completed until July 10 under NBA rules). It was a steep price — the average annual salary quintuples what Budinger was making last season — but reasonable given the sky-high market for three-point shooting, which has become a dominant trend throughout the league. I believe him when he says he turned down more money in order to stay with Minnesota. Budinger has good length at 6-7, a keen knowledge of coach Rick Adelman’s system, and, at least before he injured his knee, proved last year how well he can find seams in opposing defenses moving without the ball.
The Wolves’ style-changing gambit came just hours later Tuesday evening, when it was announced that Minnesota had signed Kevin Martin to a four-year deal for somewhere between $28 million and $30 million. With that move, the Wolves simultaneously enhanced their offense and crippled their defense. It’s a sugar-high transaction that depletes the fiber on the roster.
Martin is somewhat redundant with Budinger in terms of skill sets, except that, relative to Bud, his strengths and weaknesses are exaggerated. Both are 6-7 swingmen who have played both small forward and shooting guard. Both have extensive experience playing under Adelman for multiple franchises, and possess a fierce loyalty toward the coach. Both are scorers as well as shooters, meaning they can convert the long-range three-pointer but also finish on drives and feeds near the basket and can sink their free throws after drawing the foul. And both are sub-mediocre defenders who need help, lots of help, trying to contain a prolific scorer on the other team.
Right now, aside from gritty combo forward Dante Cunningham, whose option was thankfully picked up by the Wolves at the end of the season, there seems to be precious little help available on this roster in terms of defense on the wing. That vacated the premises with the departure of Andrei Kirilenko.
K-Mart for AK
Listening to the size and length of Martin’s deal, it was hard not to think of how fast Kirilenko would have jumped to remain with the Wolves on similar terms, even knocking a year off a potential agreement. It was widely rumored that AK turned down his option of staying in Minnesota one more year at $10.2 million in order to search for the stability of a contract somewhere in the range of $21 million spread over the next three years. Sure, there are longevity dangers inherent in such a proposal: Kirilenko is 32 years old, with chronic back issues that have contributed to his averaging just 63 games (in an 82-game season) over his last four years in the NBA. He has also logged a lot of hard minutes fighting through picks and executing the kind of rugged wing defense that is his calling card.
But because the Wolves franchise seems to be suffering from temporary amnesia, let’s recall the reasons the team signed Kirilenko in the first place.
At his first press conference after the lockout in 2011, when the newly hired Adelman was finally allowed to discuss the specifics of his team, he savaged Minnesota’s lackluster defense. Specifically, the coach said that when he was in Houston the previous season, the Wolves offered so little resistance on defense that his club could score out of their first option whenever they wanted. Clearly, that blunt assessment right out of the chute was designed to set a tone and re-establish priorities that were ignored during Kurt Rambis’ disastrous two-year tenure.
But the Wolves lacked the personnel to upgrade the defense as much as Adelman preferred, barely rising from 27th to 25th in defensive efficiency (points allowed per possession) among the 30 NBA teams during Adelman’s first season. Consequently, a year ago at this time, the coach demanded that owner Glen Taylor and then-President of Basketball Operations David Kahn find him a player who could defend multiple positions on the wing.
That’s why the Wolves ended up offering Portland swingman Nicolas Batum a whopping 4-year, $46-million contract last July. And that’s why the Wolves went out and signed Kirilenko for a 2-year, $20-million deal (with AK holding the option on the second year) after Portland matched Minnesota’s offer for Batum (who was a restricted free agent). Finally, that is largely why Minnesota took a leap forward from 25th to 13th in defensive efficiency last season.
Rarely are a team’s choices laid out in such a stark manner. The Wolves almost surely could have had Kirilenko for the money they are going to pay Martin. They probably could have made it a three-year contract, avoiding some of the maneuvering that will be necessary to stay away from the luxury tax should they match any offers for Nikola Pekovic this off-season and pay Ricky Rubio close to maximum money when his rookie deal expires in 2016.
There has been chatter that Adelman was slightly disenchanted with Kirilenko’s defensive prowess last season. I know there was a period of adjustment because AK had played more than a decade under Utah coach Jerry Sloan, who rarely if ever switched coverages, whereas Minnesota frequently switches on pick-and-rolls and other rotations. But come on, who doesn’t remember how vital Kirilenko was — and how specifically he was deployed — when an opponent with a devastating wing scorer like Carmelo Anthony, Lebron James or Kevin Durant came to town? Precious few defenders have his blend of length, sinew and smarts. And lest we forget, he was pretty good at executing Adelman’s ball movement offense as well.
Some positives
Obviously, I really don’t like the Martin signing, especially right on the heels of re-signing Budinger. But there are some silver linings that should be conceded, and hopefully cherished during the 120-118 games we are likely to witness next season.
First of all, this pretty much cements the reality that Adelman will be back on the sidelines next season, and probably beyond. Both Budinger and Martin specifically cited the coach’s presence and system as the motivation for their signing. Landing the pair almost fits perfectly with the stated desire of new POBO Flip Saunders to bring in more three-point shooting, so the current situation is one that ratifies both Saunders and Adelman and keeps them roughly on the same page.
Second, Kevin Martin is a proven offensive force. He flourished under Adelman’s system in both Sacramento and Houston, and after suffering a down year with the Rockets under Kevin McHale, his offense again ignited after he was traded to Oklahoma City last season. Specifically, his true shooting percentage (which factors in field goals, three pointers and free throws) was 60.8, was ranked 8th in the NBA. For that matter, his career true shooting percentage is 59.6, which is 20th all time in the NBA. And he has done all this without ever playing with a pass-first point guard like Ricky Rubio, one of the top-five ball distributors in the game.
There are some warning signs. The new “continuation” rules making it tougher for players to draw fouls and shoot free throws has had a significant impact on Martin. Over the past three seasons, his free-throw attempts per 36 minutes played has dropped from 9.3 to 5.1 to 4.1 (that third-year drop is partially mitigated by the style played by Oklahoma City). It also should be noted that Martin turns 31 in February, meaning he’ll be 35 when his contract concludes — yet another reason why three years would have been a better window. Hopefully the Wolves have written in a team option to decline or buy out the fourth year that we’ll discover when the deal becomes “official” next week.
But this is the “positives” section of the column, so let us go back to imagining a lineup of Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Martin and Chase Budinger. It contains good size—Rubio is the shortest at 6-4—and is able to score down in the paint and out at the arc, in the half court offensive sets and out in transition, with a variety solid free-throw shooters available for end-of-game situations.
Offense matters in today’s NBA. The champion Miami Heat ranked second in offensive efficiency (points scored per possession) and their opponent in the Finals, the San Antonio Spurs, were 7th. By contrast, the Timberwolves were a dreadful 25th, bogged down by the worst three-point shooting percentage in the NBA. A full, healthy season of Martin, Love and Budinger will substantially upgrade the accuracy of the team’s long-range marksmanship.
Finding defense: SOS
But defense also matters, of course. Of the four teams left standing for the conference finals, Indiana, Memphis and San Antonio ranked first, second, and third in defensive efficiency and Miami was 9th.
Looking over the roster as it is currently constituted, it is hard to imagine the Wolves being any more than first-round fodder in the playoffs unless they can figure out a way to shore up that defense between now and opening day. And yes, even making the playoffs is a laudable step forward. But I believe that was going to happen with or without Martin on board.
So, how do the Wolves credibly defend?
In my view, the top priority for this off-season remains the same: Match any offer for restricted free agent Nikola Pekovic. For the past year and a half, the Wolves’ assistant coach in charge of the team’s defense, Bill Bayno, has proclaimed Pek the team’s best pick-and-roll defender. Granted, for an NBA center he is no rim protector, but Pek susses out and squelches emerging pick-and-roll options in expert fashion with a minimum of fouling. As it now stands, his defensive abilities are more valuable to the Wolves than the efficient low-post offense he has ably flexed the past two years.
Next up, the Wolves need to leverage their remaining bench assets to obtain a solid wing defender. In terms of value, Derrick Williams and Luke Ridnour would fetch the most talent in return, but I’d offer anyone, including first-round pick Shabazz Muhammad, J.J. Barea, or Alexey Shved (who quit on the team last season and won’t have his attitude elevated by the absence of his countryman and Olympics teammate Kirilenko). Given the salary-cap constraints caused by the Martin signing, any significant acquisition will almost certainly have to be via a trade, and probably a sign-and-trade situation with a team looking to get something in return for their departing free agent.
Of the available crop of free agents, the best fit in terms of defensive ability, likely salary demands and inclination to come to Minnesota is probably Al Farouq Aminu, who is a wiry 6-9 and will be just 23 on opening day. He can’t shoot, but he gets after it defensively and likely won’t cost more than $2 million to $3 million per year. Other defensive-oriented options include Matt Barnes or our old friend Corey Brewer, but they are going to be asking for more than Budinger makes and aren’t inclined to choose Minnesota with a role off the bench awaiting them after they have played key roles for recent playoff contenders. As for trades, my contribution to the chatter is dealing Ridnour and backup forward-center Chris Johnson to Golden State for swingman Brandon Rush, provided he is fully recovered from a significant knee injury suffered last season.
The unsung hero of the Wolves’ 2012-13 season was assistant coach Bayno, who maximized the team’s defensive performance by emphasizing aggressive positional defense and going up straight against dribble penetration in order to avoid fouls. Considering that Minnesota played the undersized Ridnour at shooting guard and didn’t have Rubio’s ball-hawking and tough man-up coverage for much of the season, that 13th ranking in defensive efficiency was the year’s most pleasant surprise.
Can something even remotely approximating that performance happen again without Kirilenko? Or will Adelman begin the 2014 season the way he bemoaned the beginning of 2011, lamenting how Wolves’ opponents are able to get whatever they want?
I’ll be sad to see Kirilenko go. I thought he was last year’s Team MVP and he seems from my outsider perspective like one of the best pros this team has ever had.
That said, I understand the reasoning. A team led by a passer/non-shooter like Ricky Rubio needs floor spreaders at 1 through 4 (when Pek goes to the bench, why not make it 1 through 5?) and AK47 was not a floor spreader. His Al Jefferson-like exaggerated head fakes were wildly effective against poorly prepped defenders, but even those often times just recycled the drive-and-kick action begun by Rubio or Shved. The bottom line is that the team needs players that will catch a nice pass and make a nice shot. That player isn’t Kirilenko. I hope that player is Shabazz Muhammad, I think that player is Chase Budinger, and I know that player is Kevin Martin.
The defense will probably be worse next year. I say “probably” because the possible avenues to upgrade are a full season of a healthy Ricky Rubio, and no longer having to double team the post when Luke Ridnour is guarding Dwyane Wade or Vince Carter. But yes, it’ll probably get worse and the offense will need a massive upgrade to more-than-offset it in a way that means 47 or more wins and a playoff berth.
Regarding the length of these deals, I think of Kevin Love’s 2015 opt out. If that devastating blow strikes the franchise, it’ll be in better shape having pieces like Martin, Budinger, Pekovic, and hopefully-developed Shved/Muhammad/Dieng to carry on. The Wolves will have every opportunity to have all of those players in the event that Love leaves. I doubt this was lost on AdelFlip when those contract offers were extended.
As always, great piece. I disagree that Shved quit though — he says he wore down physically, and I think he was scouted out of his successful tendencies. It’s now on him to round out his game.
Shved and quitting
Andy–
Thanks as always for intelligently chiming in. I was just having the same discussion/debate with good people on Twitter about my use of “quitting” with respect to Shved. I stand by it: At what point does wearing down physically give you the right to pout mentally and stubbornly refuse to adjust your game in ways that are wearing you down physically to begin with? When you give up trying to improve yourself, you “quit.” And I saw no signs of Shved sincerely trying to improve the negative aspects of his game during the second half of the season. Throw in his history of attitude problems in Russia and I would argue that he petulantly quit on his team. Now that the season is over, the spin from all corners is positive. But I saw what I saw–I’ve seen it from McCants and Beasley and some others in the past–and it was ugly.
I think there’s a line between effort and ability and you might be giving Shved too much credit when you phrase his struggles as being tied to the former instead of the latter. The NBA season must move lightening fast for these guys that aren’t used to 3-4 games per week, and the idea of just developing on the fly seems difficult.
Shved looked good in the early part of the season when he was allowed to create off of ball screens with Pekovic rolling to the rim and Kirilenko making expertly-timed baseline cuts. But there was one early game — that horrible loss at home to Charlotte (remember those Will Conroy minutes?) — where he was bullied out court and trapped on ball screens, and it was hard to escape the conclusion that he’s in for trouble when he gets scouted. Teams eventually caught on, he struggled, and everything was a little bit magnified by factors like fatigue, Adelman’s hiatus, and Ricky’s return that cut down his time with AK & Pek.
I was most discouraged by the number of times he and Barea wasted the bulk of the shot clock. For Shved, that often led to a two-dribble hesitation hoist from the Beasley Zone: 20-22 feet.
Looking ahead, I’d just like to see him: a) take better ownership of the lead-guard position, rather than allow Barea to dominate the ball so much; and b) get the team into attacking sets quicker, rather than holding the ball 30 feet from the hoop. If he plays an all around smarter, more aggressive game, I think his efficiency will go up as a simple result of not having those crappy attempts when the shot clock is winding down. Maybe increased understanding of the language will help his confidence, too.
Well said, but…
Andy–
That was a very solid and succinct encapsulation of Shved’s season. However, it omitted all the horrible faces and body language, and the continued insistence of doing the same thing (like holding the ball under pressure and/or trying to split traps with his dribble) despite repeated instruction from the bench not to do those things.
Those aspects are a matter of effort and attitude, not ability.
Eh, the body language doesn’t bother me as much as it does Ricky “Change your face!” Rubio.
Corey Brewer would enthusiastically clank jumpers and Jonny Flynn maintained that lottery-pick smile as he chucked passes behind his back and out of bounds.
The plays happen first and Shved was as deadpan when he played well as he was “mopey” when he fell to the floor, thinking he got fouled. He just doesn’t play with much emotion, which I think is okay. If his energy on defense suffered — and I do not think that it did — then maybe I’d reconsider all of this.
I think it’s at least premature if not downright wrong to compare Shved to McCants and Beasley. Rashad has proven himself — in various ways — to be delusional about his own abilities. Beas actually does have elite talents and is quite obviously wasting them. It’s not unfair to call that a mental issue. With Shved, all of one season in, I’m not ready to go there. He needs to show me a bigger body of work as a talent first, and more egregious behavior second, before I chalk him up as a guy who quits and/or is the proverbial “headcase.”
The question about Budinger is
What are the odds that he’ll get through more than half a season without another knee injury?
Damaged knees are a risk, so anything the Wolves get from him is a plus, not something to build on.
Which makes Martin a backup. Between the two of them they’ll get one player at the position.
Waiting on judgment
AK was my favorite player, though that was partially due to the juxtaposition of him skipping around court before the tip while that awful Pitbull song played.
With that said, it’s debatable if the redundancies in his and Rubio’s games were good for the team. Offensively, having 2 perimeter guys who take perimeter shots as a last resort while struggling to make them is a big problem when defenses pack the paint so effectively if they don’t worry about shooters.
Defense is a problem, but this is the incomplete part. Defense is always paid at a lower rate than offense, there’s a chance they could maneuver the signings to have the mid-level exception for someone, Ridnour’s expiring has enough value to take on a longer deal, and other players may have value (if they were able to unload some of those awful deals after the KG trade, they can do these). They just have more work to do.
Understand that position
But the problem I have is that both Bud and K-Mart are below average defensively–I was surprised at how bad Budinger defended before and after his injury last season–and if you play them together you are going to get roasted by the other team’s better wingman. And a lot of opponents have really good wingmen.
So, even if Flip and Rick do unearth a quality wing defender, does that send Bud or Martin to the pine for the bulk of some games?
If you don’t have a stopper in this league, you are not getting past the first round, regardless of how good your other folks are.
I’m concerned about them together
I’m sure Adelman is too; he was the one 2 years ago who kept isolating Beasley on Budinger against the Rockets. Their stretches to start the game and at the beginning of the 3rd would worry me more than crunch time; offensive/defensive subs can be used and Bud doesn’t automatically get to be on the floor at that stage of the game.
I’m curious why they chose this direction, but Zach Harper had a question in one of his posts a while ago that I try to keep in mind: do you trust Rick Adelman? In general, he must think this will work better, and I’m willing to see how it plays out yet still be nervous about their D.
Defense & Playoffs
I agree with the author that the Wolves will struggle on defense next year. However, I don’t think their defense will necessarily inhibit them for making the playoffs in the upcoming season (which is the primary goal of the season). In my opinion, having a mostly healthy roster next year will help our team defense more than a potential resigning of AK47. Rubio is good defender and I expect to see improvement from Love/Pek/D-Will. I haven’t seen much of Shabazz’s defense but he could be used for defensive wing energy off the bench next season.
Although many people will say a first round exit would be a disappointment, the playoff experience (even losing) would be a huge benefit to a roster without virtually any playoff experience. Arguably, making the playoffs next season will have more of a positive impact on retaining Love than any other signing or outside influence. If the Wolves’ core of players can gel this year, it could be the impetus they need to stay together and continue to progress as a team. Winning can solve alot of problems.
Lastly, I embrace the Martin signing. The number one deficiency of the Wolves over the past 3-4 years is their refusal to sign competent veterans who could teach our young players how to be professionals. I believe its the reason so many draft picks have failed in Minnesota over that same time. I like the idea of D-Will, Shabazz, and Dieng learning from Martin rather than having to take cues from Darko, Beasley, and numerous other immature young guys that have previously been the focal points of our rosters (btw, you can thank Kahn for the immature rosters). Also, hopefully the Flip signing will signal a maturity within the franchise that will resonate with the players that the Wolves are a serious organization committed to winning. Everyone knew Kahn was a joke, including the players.
He is Russian, after all…
Not known for their upbeat countenance. Quit is a strong word. I hope you’re overstating it. He was in a foreign country in the biggest league in the world. Lots to adjust for.
I love Kirilenko, too, and hope, somehow, they can do a S&T to free up money to have him return. But he’s pretty much guaranteed to miss his usual amount of games, whether we get hit with the injury bug again or not. He may want to play with a contender at this point in his career. He certainly wants a longer contract. Can you be sure he didn’t just use the Wolves as a convenient re-entry point into the league after his year away? After all, he wanted the second year option. He walked away from a sure $10M. It’s another pretty strong supposition that he would have taken Martin money.
Strong suppositions
I know people are reacting strongly to my saying that Shved quit on the team last season. I’ve given some of my reasons for saying it in the comments above, so I won’t belabor other than to say that my primary point is that Shved simply didn’t play as hard nor as cooperatively as he hard at the beginning of the season. There are reasons for that–fatigue, stubborn attitude, etc–but the bottom line is he ceased caring as much. Define that as you wish.
I continue to believe that if AK is offered 3 years at approximately $21 million by a team with a decent shot at the playoffs he will take it. Scott, you imply that he might get more than that. I think the holdup is more likely that he’ll get less. I think doubling his money via two extra years in the league is probably the ceiling–but we’ll see.