And so it begins again. On Monday, the latest edition of the Minnesota Timberwolves assembled as a group for the first time, donned their uniforms, and went through their paces — photographs, interviews, promo spots — as part of the annual Media Day ritual.
For the players — and for general manager Milt Newton and interim head coach Sam Mitchell, both expanding their roles as Flip Saunders battles cancer — it is a chance to acclimate to the pressure cooker of what will be a competitive environment over the next six or seven months (or longer, if these Wolves make the playoffs for the first time since 2003).
For scribes like me, Media Day is a tidy smorgasbord of first impressions, a chance to check out muscle definitions and mental demeanors, parse the verbal cues and clues, and start a new file for the 2015-16 season. Beginning with Newton and Mitchell and then moving steadily through the roster, the stars, scrubs, vets and newbies each took their place at the head table in the media room at Target Center on Monday and fielded questions for 5-to-15 minutes.
What follows are the things that stood out for me during this round, in the context of some of larger questions facing the Wolves during the 2015-16 campaign.
Once again, the Wolves do not seem poised to aggressively utilize the three-point shot this season.
Mitchell’s approach to the three-pointer sounded very similar to Saunders a year ago. “You have to earn the right to shoot threes,” he said of the players. His criteria for that earning process includes a willingness to work on it until it is a very accurate shot in practice. But even then, he stressed that “There’s not a lot of plays you can run to get open threes; they have to come in flow.”
Apparently the idea having a player almost always situated behind the arc as a normal course of a half-court set remains alien to the Wolves playbook. Obviously as the set unfolds and the defense reacts, the identity and location of that three-point shooter would change. But having that credible threat naturally creates more spacing for cuts, pick-and-rolls and dribble penetration.
In that sense, nearly all the plays you run could result in open threes, precisely because they are created in the flow of the action. But for that to happen, the Wolves have to join the majority of NBA teams and establish it as a standard part of the arsenal. And that can’t succeed unless you allow players the chance to develop that aspect of their offense in game situations, without fear of penalty.
Player attitudes on the importance of the three varied. Asked if his work with shooting coach Mike Penberthy (who is not on staff but will continue to meet intermittently with some players) will feature less midrange and more three-pointers this season, Ricky Rubio replied, “Well, midrange is the key for point guard right now. And I think playing the pick and roll and having a midrange makes you a good spot in the mix. But of course the three point shot is a key I have to improve, and finishing around the rim. But I have been talking to Mike and midrange is the key to the game right now.”
For the record, Rubio excelled at the midrange last season, dramatically exceeding his previous career highs in the relative frequency and accuracy of his shot from 16 feet out to the three-point arc. But his total shooting percentage was a career low due to his inability to nail three pointers or finish at the rim often enough.
Not surprisingly, the wing players were all in favor more three-pointers in the mix. Both Andrew Wiggins and Shabazz Muhammad revealed that they had been working diligently to improve that aspect of their offense. Damjan Rudez, the 6-10 Croatian combo forward acquired from Indiana for Chase Budinger, was impressively self-aware and well-spoken while making his case for minutes as a three-point specialist.
By dint of his experience and track record as a marksman, veteran Kevin Martin had the authority to expand the subject beyond himself. “One thing we have to do better, we have to be able to shoot from the three,” he said. “So that should be a big focus and point for us. It is another thing to go into a game without having shooters, and just having them shoot it to shoot it because it looks cool on paper, so we have to practice it a lot in October. [But] because the way the game is going now, it is just a shot that your team has to have.”
After a wretched season in which the Wolves yielded the third-highest effective field goal percentage (which counts opponent accuracy in three-pointers and two-pointers) in NBA history, Minnesota will be better on defense — and perhaps much better.
If there is a place where Mitchell deviates most from Flip Saunders, it is in his desire to self-identify with gritty defense. Mitchell pledged to open every practice with workouts aimed at shoring up the defense, understanding at least in this context that focused team-wide repetitions yield improvements.
That top-down emphasis will help. So will better health and continuity on the roster. Gone are the days when the Wolves trot out the woefully undersized front court of Gorgui Dieng and Thad Young, or have clueless matador rookie Zach LaVine initiating the defense on the perimeter.
This season, Andrew Wiggins can commit himself to being rugged wing stopper without the unreasonable burden of playing logging 40-plus minutes per game as the go-to guy on offense. And two other quality defenders on the team — Rubio and Kevin Garnett — will provide plenty of support.
“I never played with a guy who jumped so hard on [pick and roll] defense,” Rubio marveled of Garnett. “I really was impressed with the way he was leading from behind. I was on defense and I heard him yelling all the time, telling us what to do. That felt pretty good, I’m not going to lie. I think we can build from there. He can teach the young big guys how to lead because that is the key to winning games.”
The old clichés about savvy vets mentoring young kids will actually be meaningful on the Wolves this season.
The above quote from Rubio is Exhibit A of KG’s impact on the team. On Monday, Garnett reprised the free-flowing charm he flashed during his welcome-back press conference last season after being acquired from Brooklyn — and before he sat all but 98 minutes during the tanking that blemished the 14-15 season and blessed the franchise with Karl-Anthony Towns this year.
He was funny and voluble, flattering veteran members of the media with his attention, and adopting the skillful mien of calculated irreverence with his answers. He reiterated that he hates playing the center position, but surely knows he will be slotted there, at least defensively, in many situations. And he went out of his way to emphasize that the core young talent on the roster is “great” rather than good.
General manager Milt Newton noted that with Garnett in the frontcourt, Tayshaun Prince on the wing and Andre Miller in the backcourt, the Wolves have top-quality mentorship available to every player and specific position on the roster. It was a pleasure to hear the two-way comments about the potential dynamics of that mentorship.
Bazzy Muhammad — who looked physically ripped and was mentally psyched to the point where his head quivered and his body rocked while hearing questions posed to him — gushed about picking KG’s brain on the sideline during games and the prospect of learning wing defense from Prince.
Towns used the word “champion” about a dozen times while describing what he hopes to glean from Garnett.
On the flip side, the best endorsement of drafting undersized point guard Tyus Jones came from Miller on Monday when he proclaimed that Jones was “way more advanced than people think. I think he’s definitely going to surprise a lot of people.”
Then there was Prince, who oozed thoughtful, soft-spoken dignity during his time on the mic, providing lengthy, contextual answers to most every question. It provided an ideal balance and striking contrast to KG, who burns hot with competitive zeal almost all of the time. For young players better suited to more measured mentorship, Prince (and to a lesser extent Miller) will soothe as he teaches.
Inevitably, roster competition will lead to conflict, in ways that are potentially good and also potentially harmful.
Both Newton and Mitchell left little doubt that the veterans will cede minutes to the youngsters even at the cost of the won-lost record, stating that long-term excellence will trump short-term gains. As Mitchell put it, KG, Prince and Martin “are not going to be here three years from now” and that his priority is “doing right by the organization first…[by] making sure these young guys get a chance to learn how to play in certain situations.”
That is most problematic for Prince, who said that he had spoken specifically about minutes and playing time with Saunders, but had not yet confirmed it with Mitchell. In his carefully precise way, Prince made it clear he felt he could be and should be an effective contributor for 15-20 minutes per game.
But the Wolves are stocked at the wing positions. The most intense competition is likely to come between Martin and Muhammad for the starting slot beside Wiggins on the wing.
Muhammad enthusiastically — and appropriately — talked about how effective the Wigs-Bazzy wing tandem was last season because both players are powerful enough to overwhelm opposing shooting guards. Bazzy noted that he had been concentrating on his ball-handling and honing quick footwork and other aspects of perimeter defense to prepare himself for back court duty.
But Martin will not leave the starting lineup quietly. When it was pointed out that a compelling case could be made for him as both a starter and a sixth man, and then he had previously been successful in both roles, he shot back, “No, there is no compelling case. I know where I’m at. I’m a starting shooting guard. Yeah,” he concluded, shaking his head in disgust that anyone might think otherwise.
Then there is Zach LaVine. It is very subtle, but Mitchell always mentions LaVine’s name at or near the top of the list — sometimes ahead of Wiggins — when he is recounting the young players worthy of special attention and mentoring. For whatever reason — dedicated readers know I don’t share his enthusiasm — LaVine has an influential advocate in his corner. That could affect both the simmering competition for wing minutes and perhaps impinge upon the point guard situation, especially if Rubio’s troublesome ankle isn’t fully healed or functional throughout the season.
We haven’t even discussed 27-year old rookie wingman Nemanja Bjelica, who was only the MVP of the vaunted Euroleague in 2015; or Nikola Pekovic, who can make a huge difference in the low post if his latest foot surgery finally enables him to surmount his chronic injury history. Both were tentative on Monday — Bjelica due to his incomplete command of English, Pek because he’s a realist sick of talking about being hurt. And there was Adreian Payne, ostensibly in the front court mix enough to force Anthony Bennett off the roster, but the recipient of the least interest among the assembled media in terms of questions asked.
Last but not least, the absence of Flip Saunders loomed over the entire day. Strib beat writer Jerry Zgoda asked each player about Flip in the course of compiling a story for Tuesday’s paper, and got the typical yet sincere responses of sadness, hope and prayers in Flip’s direction.
What was learned was the status quo from two weeks ago has not changed. Owner Glen Taylor’s directive that Flip not be contacted by any member of the franchise so that his family’s desire for total privacy be honored continues to hold.
It is a hopeful time in the development of Timberwolves. But the architect of that hope is absent. Hopefully not for much longer.
Great as always
Looking forward to another season of your insights and to a team worthy of them (for a change).
Much obliged
Thanks for checking in Mark.
As for the other folks who typically respond, my apologies for the radio silence in the comments section of the last column. Just happened to be an especially busy time.
In any case, when you feel the urge to kick around Wolves-related subject matter, chime in. I’m ready to engage over the next few days,
Good spotting up
That’s ultimately what they’ll need to increase the amount of attempts. In that sense, play design should be adjustable if spot-up guys aren’t behind the line, and it’s concerning that Mitchell (both on media day and in his Strib interview) dealt with it so sarcastically. I get that it’s annoying to be questioned by people who couldn’t coach a youth basketball team, but the defensiveness isn’t helping his case (nor did it help Flip’s).
I don’t think players develop their shooting through taking more in games unless they’ve developed the muscle memory to make them in practice, and we can’t take for granted that they have. For players just coming to the league, those steps back take time to adjust to, and it should be okay to wait until they can hit, say, 75% of their practice attempts. The best shooters have days where they make 100% in practice because their form is automatic.
There’s also the question of optimal resource use. Guys should shoot them when open if they’ve proven they can make them. However, it takes a more-refined skill set to hit them off the dribble, off screens, and in transition, and when guys like Wiggins and Muhammad are so strong around the basket, the majority of the plays run for them should involve cuts near the rim and post-ups. I want to see them round out their games, but that applies just as much for ballhandling as for 3-point shooting. Right now, they have Martin who they can run plays to generate open looks, but this was a common theme in those sets last season: defender runs out, Martin takes a step in and shoots a long 2. Isn’t it on Martin to step to the side and take an open 3 instead of stepping in? My guess is that tendency was developed and reinforced long before he joined the Wolves.
Plenty to chew on here
PSR–
Good stuff as always. I’ll take it as you sent it.
Yes, I would guess the majority of NBA teams now know how to spot up to generate catch-and-shoot threes and space the defense. And while it may be annoying to be questioned by amateurs, well, it isn’t *that* hard to pay attention to what quality coaches and franchises are doing–you know, the ones where Sam Mitchell may want to work someday.
I wasn’t saying players should perfect their groove in games, only that they need time to establish their groove in games after establishing their groove in practice. As we all know, doing something by rote with nobody in the stands, and no real pressure is much different mentally than doing it in games. No matter how rote you get in practice, that mental/psychological muscle memory has to make the leap to situations that matter, and if the leash is too tight, you curtail the process of development right near one of the final and most crucial stages. That’s what I worry about with the Flip and Mitchell philosophy. It is almost like they want to be proven correct that an emphasis on threes is misguided. Well, that horse has left the barn, joined the other side and is currently being sheathed in laurels.
I guess I’d say the same thing about non-catch and shoot threes only with a much higher standard. Mitchell is consensually regarded as a big proponent of ball movement instead of iso’s, so I don’t anticipate a lot of off-the-dribble threes anyway, although I do think for some players (LaVine comes to mind) coming down and jacking in transition can be as accurate as a spotted up trey, especially if guys like Towns, Bejlica, and Dieng are running the floor enough to contest the rebound on a miss.
I think a big reason for developing Bazz and Wigs as three-point shooters is precisely because every scouting report will suggest giving them space. Wiggins’ spin move is already notorious and Bazzy’s relentless nose for the hoop either posting up or driving the lane is likewise at the top of any scout’s take on him. If, as he claims, he’s got a right-handed baby hook to match his lefty shot, they will give him all the room he wants from 16 feet out.
Which isn’t to say that cuts and rim-runners shouldn’t remain a significant part of their offense. I have frequently fantasized about an Atlanta or San Antonio style attack that spaces for the purposes of drive and/or kick options, with sets on repeat if the pace is as uptempo as the Hawks and Spurs can make it off of oppponents’ misses.
Haven’t looked it up, but I bet Martin gets a little more time for treys when Rubio is running the show versus LaVine or even Mo Williams last season. Of course Martin would also benefit from another long range shooter stationed on the opposite wing or corner. Spacing is created by effective shooting and smart passing. The Wolves had precious little of either last season. But yes, even with all that, Martin needs to occasionally make an effort to create space for his own trey. He loves contact, and is deadly at the line, but opponents has sussed it and invite the long-two adjustment he makes.
License to shoot 3s
I’d be more inclined to buy in to the notion that you have to earn the right to shoot three-pointers if there was a marked increase in missed shots from taking that step or two back. But there hasn’t been, at least with the remaining core Wolves shooters.
Wiggins shot 30.5% on long twos, 31% on threes last year. LaVine was 35.4% on long twos, 34.1% on threes. Martin was 40.7% on long twos, 39.3% on threes. (Over his entire NBA career, there’s less than one percent difference in Martin’s percentages on long twos versus threes.) Muhammad was 32.6% on long twos, but 39.6% on threes.
There’s no reason for these guys to be taking lots of 20-footers when their accuracy is the same from deeper. Wiggins took twice as many long twos as threes last year, which is just crazy.
Only Rubio had a significant gap last year that fit the Wolves model — 40.5% on long 2s, 25.5% on 3s — but his first three years didn’t show a gap that significant, so we’ll have to see if it holds.
These aren’t the guys anyone’s concerned about
They don’t have a problem with any of the players you mentioned taking 3s. They were allowed to shoot 3s all season, and while they could get more of those shots, many of them are still young players trying to establish their strengths. It took Wiggins most of the season to just put his head down and dunk on people; now, they can round out his game. Many of LaVine’s long 2s were the result of him breaking off the play, and if one of Muhammad’s big strengths is offensive rebounding, how feasible is it for him to crash in from behind the arc consistently? The fringe guys are who get affected by this, and those are guys who don’t get a “long 2 card” either. More important is for everyone to have the discipline to not take the long 2s, but I’m skeptical that even 15% of their sets are trying to open up a long 2.
Slight pushback
PSR–
I would disagree would your opening sentence. I think they *do* have a problem with it. Flip certainly wanted to stress and establish Wiggins on post ups and spin moves and thus discouraged the notion of Wiggins setting up outside for catch and shoot threes. I only wish Wiggins had the green light from outside, both last year and now this season. If so, I’ll feel better about it.
Yes, LaVine often shoots from a position of weaknesses, having not been able to feed folks the ball. But that will change with his probable move to off-guard this season. I would also endorse a higher percentage of threes taken by LaVine this season but again am not sure that will be supported by the coaches.
Bazzy is a good offensive rebounder but so was Kevin Love. Nothing to prevent players from using all their skills and I think Bazzy in particular will be given room to shoot open threes on the perimeter as mentioned in my last comment.
Meanwhile, “fringe guys” who I want to see shoot from distance include Rudez and perhaps Bjelica, and certainly Prince, who can nail that corner trey, if and when he gets minutes.
I just think the problem is overstated
The lack of attempts for Muhammad and Wiggins were byproducts of the coaching staff’s development plans for them, not an explicit goal of those plans. It isn’t a zero-sum game where an emphasis on inside play means the coaching staff is discouraging them from shooting. These guys are early in their career, and their 3 point attempt rates aren’t that much different than other young wings. Durant took 15% of his shots from 3 in his rookie season; Vince Carter took 8.6%. Wiggins was at 11%.
I’ve never said that guys who proved they can make 3s shouldn’t shoot them. Fringe guys to me are the ones who haven’t proven they can shoot and can still contribute to a good offense if that’s not part of their game. This would apply to anyone playing the 4, since a team doesn’t need 48 PF minutes to be occupied by a guy with 3 point range, but there are plenty of fringe 3-point shooters in NBA rotations. The stereotypical team to point to is Memphis, but most top 10 offensive teams had at least 1 rotation wing that opponents didn’t respect as a 3-point shooter: Rivers, Livingston, Shumpert, Derozan, Ellis/Rondo/Aminu, Parker, Sefolosha, Evans, and Westbrook/Waiters/Jackson/Roberson. Any one of those fringe guys usually shoot when open, and that’s fine because their offenses are creating something that is difficult to stop. The Wolves need to find that element first; nobody will be open to catch and shoot if the defense isn’t forced to help or double anywhere, and defenses aren’t going to respect set plays that generate 3s for guys shooting under 35% on them.
If you look at wings drafted recently, they are out of line. If you look at guys taken in the top half of the first round over the last three years, the only people lower than 3-point rates as rookies than Wiggins are Bazzy and Kidd-Gilchrist. Even guys like Otto Porter and Bradley Beal, who play in a similar system for the Wizards, shot 3s two to three times more frequently than Wiggins did. Yes, Wiggins is a different sort of player, but do you see him shooting 30% of his shots from distance as Durant does today? I don’t think so, because of Flip. There’s nothing in Flip’s coaching record — and comments since taking the Wolves job — that he’s changed his stripes on this point. The Wolves are gong to continue to be a team that shoots high amounts of long 2s and small amounts of 3s compared to the rest of the league.
LaVine was at 24.7%
But that doesn’t fit the narrative apparently. Flip wasn’t coaching Muhammad’s 8.9% rookie season. PGs are also ignored in that grouping.
It’s easy to gloss over how Wiggins is different until one really notices how often he actually was the offensive center of attention. Spot up shooters are guys who receive the benefit of their defender leaving them to help on someone else; who was leaving Wiggins for any reason last season?
If you want to compare him as a 3 point shooter, compare him to guys whose teams want to get to the rim and create for others, like Derrick Rose, John Wall, and LeBron. Rose was at 6% and 4.4% his first 2 seasons; Wall was at 4.7% and 6.1% in his 2nd and 3rd seasons. LeBron was at 12.7% in 2011-12; was anyone accusing Erik Spoelstra of hating 3s? It was LeBron’s job to create those open 3s for guys who can’t do what he does, like Chalmers, Miller, and Battier. He might become one of the best wing finishers at the rim in the league, so that’s what I want to see him do because it will lift their whole offense much more than rounding out his game; being able to run sets to get him a 3 would be icing on the cake, not the cake.
Shabazz’s 3pt% is not 39%
Shabazz’s 39% for 3s is based on a very small sample size. Shabazz had a very strong December that included 5 of 6 from behind the 3 pt line against Utah, but he struggled a lot in Jan. and Feb. If we treat the Utah game as an outlier we’ll see that Shabazz’s 3pt% is only 33%.
Don’t get me wrong about the 3s. The Wolves definitely need more than 15 3s per game.
uh, yes it is
Tom–
You don’t get to take away the largest point in one’s argument and then say you won the argument. Sure, Bazzy’s percentage was booted up by that hot night, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t make them. His 3pt % is indeed 39.2%. Look it up.
And yes, I get the argument about small sample size creating big ripples. So throw out his worst showing too, which was 0-3 and call his 3pt% 35.7 if you want.
But it is silly. Because 51 3PA is a small sample size but it is not nothing. It is not somebody wildly chucking.
We should withhold judgment on whether or not Bazzy could sustain 39.2% from distance. But we shouldn’t say he’s a 33% shooter either. There is only one way to find out, eh?
0-3 isn’t an outlier
“So throw out his worst showing too, which was 0-3”.
I can’t throw out the 0-3 because it’s not an outlier (I have noticed that you were very careful not to call the 0-3 an outlier).
And you can’t just take it out because it’s “his worst showing”, in comparison to the 5-6 which was his best showing, but an outlier.
I think that his 32% for long 2s can give some more support to the claim that his last year 3s stats was probably much closer to 33% than 39%, or even 35.7%( your calculation).
Anyway I hope he’ll prove me wrong,.
Sure I’ll go another round
Tom–
Shabazz Muhammad had zero other games last season in which he went 0-3. And he had zero games in which he didn’t score a trey on more than 3 attempts.
So I guess 0-3 is an outlier after all, eh?
But what I find comical is that on the one hand you can argue that the sample size is so small and on the other argument about the importance of the outlier on that small sample size.
Yes, small sample size is a concern, and you can really cite that in regards to all Wolves wings other than KMart and Rubio (and Prince). Even at 33%, though, Bazzy’s percentage on long 2s and threes are essentially the same so I think the larger point stands.
disdain for stats
Phil Jackson, Byron Scott, and now two wolves coaches express disdain for 3 point shots. Where did they finish last year?
Adapt or draft high, repeat.
Tanking…
When discussing last season’s stats, is it worth putting a mental asterisk next to everything knowing that the season was absolutely tanked? I’m no expert on NBA conspiracies, but is it possible that shooting threes was less emphasized in games to keep points off the board?
no
Damien with the convenient last name–
Even when Flip Saunders’ teams were competing for championships and playoff spots, they have shown a pretty significant disinclination to shoot threes.
The Wolves tanked in a lot of ways last season–my favorite was LaVine at point guard–but purposefully passing up threes was not one of them (at least not intentionally).