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You know what they say about cigars, Tom - sometimes scare quotes are just quotes.
John - The St. Cloud poll has such a long interviewing time (12 days!) and is sort of a one-shot non-professional, non-media-sponsored deal that few folks I know give it much prominence. (As you'll notice, I didn't, though Eric Black may have.)
Mark - Don't know about KARE. I think you can see the incredulity built in to my very first piece on the final HHH poll. Most reporters know the track record.
Jeremy - I think at some point, a big poll margin might depress the trailer's...
Sanden - AOL bought Patch for $7 million and said earlier this year they are investing $50 million. I'm pretty sure that's all private money - and given the company's still profiting from *dial-up internet* they know they have to find something with a long-term payoff.
Is local content it? Their ads are geared toward national brands getting local audience. That's why there's a ton of skepticism.
Ed, Rob:
Ed -- You might be right about the novices. But Ritchie and (I think) Hoffman don't fall into that category. I think there's as good a chance that novices get nervous on a set as they do talking into a camera, but we don't have any testimony on that.
I don't think the technical hurdles are quite as simple as you make them out to be, but I guess Almanac does it this way every week.
I agree this is all from the station's p.o.v. But the issue is intent, and I trust...
Tom - it's hard to refute your speculation about HHH and turnout, since we don't know how turnout was affected, but a boy can dream.
And of course, the "car-trunk ballot" myth doesn't become truer upon repetition. Only the bitter-enders ("rightists") still cling to that one.
(If you're new to the conversation, see:...
Joe - bad argument. SUSA added cellphones to their final, very-accurate poll, so they obviously felt compelled to change their methodology due to *legitimate* methodological criticism. HHH didn't have them.
I guess if you're going to conflate criticism and questioning for ripping, then I did. But I suspect most readers understand the difference.
By the way, the other methodological analysis I did was on likely voter models. I didn't criticize SUSA there, but explained their...
Joseph - you have a selective memory. If you read the previous (last pre-election) post on SUSA, you'll see no "ripping," though there is a historical analysis of how they've fared in Mn.
(Let's not forget that, even though they have nailed the last two governor's races, SUSA missed the Franken win by 5 and were 7 off on the Obama number. They're not HHH, but they're not infallible.)
I've written repeatedly how highly rated SUSA is by an analysts such as the New York Times, and...
Craig - I make no claims to be objective. There are enough questions about Election Integrity's motives and partisanship (talk about unobjective!) to render the quote marks.
Gerald -
Should also say Bert Black references 42USC1973i:
http://law.justia.com/us/codes/title42/42usc1973i.html
Don't know if that changes things.
Matt - thanks. The math is right; the column A labels were off because I moved all the green fields together.
All fixed now. If you spot other labeling errors, let me know. Appreciate it.