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By Gordon Lubold | Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 8:24 am
WASHINGTON — The Afghanistan war plan President Obama will announce next week won't stray far from the strategy he laid out eight months ago, say experts.
After nine meetings with his war council - and reports of vigorous disagreement within the administration - Mr. Obama seems likely to stick to the strategy he announced in March, perhaps incorporating elements from other proposals.
His top general in Afghanistan favors a "counterinsurgency" approach that would entail a massive increase in the number of US troops there. Others such as Vice President Biden reportedly prefer a "counter-terrorism" policy that would emphasize targeted strikes on terrorist hideouts.
"There will be something in there for everyone," says one official who is close to the deliberations. "Nobody got everything, but everybody got something."
Obama indicated Tuesday that he was not shying away from the fight in Afghanistan. "It is in our strategic interest, in our national security interest, to make sure that Al Qaeda and its extremist allies cannot operate effectively in those areas," Obama said at the White House. "We are going to dismantle and degrade their capabilities and ultimately dismantle and destroy their networks."
Obama's plan is likely to include:
Deploying civilian expertise was a problem in Iraq even during the surge of forces there, and so-called civilian surge for Afghanistan will probably also fall short. It's not clear where the several hundred civilians - agricultural experts, educators, specialists in the rule of law and engineers - will come from. The American government is still largely unable to identify those civilians whose skills would be relevant to such a mission and deploy them accordingly. However, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has made this issue a priority and is expected to be aggressive in deploying them under a new strategy.
The "uncompromising core" of the Taliban must be met with force, Obama said in March. But the Taliban is also composed of militants who plant roadside bombs not out of ideology so much as economic necessity. Those kind of militants could be persuaded to lay down their arms and help the US and its allies keep the Taliban out of their communities.
It worked in Iraq. In 2006, insurgents in Sunni-dominated Anbar Province who felt Al Qaida had crossed the line and was terrorizing communities, began to turn against the terrorist group. This "awakening" was helped by some financial encouragement from the US. Many say that although Afghanistan is a very different society, the approach could work there, too.
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