A new poll sponsored by the lefty website Daily Kos shows Norm Coleman leading Al Franken 43-40, with Dean Barkley taking 15 percent. Two weeks ago, Franken lead 41-39, with Barkley getting 18 percent.
Meanwhile, Barack Obama leads John McCain in Minnesota 53-38. The 600-person poll was conducted by Research 2000, a nonpartisan outfit, and has a sampling error margin of plus/minus 4 percent.
One of the poll’s interesting facets is a separate early-voting component.
People who say they’ve actually gone to the polls constitute 16 percent of the sample. That makes them certain voters, not likely voters — unless they’re lying — less subject to the whims of polling models that try to predict who will vote. However, margins of sampling error are higher in subgroups than the overall sample.
So anyway: The early tally shows Franken beating Coleman 45-33, to Barkley’s 22. Obama trounces McCain 58-34.
Both the overall and early-voting stats show Franken’s running 12-13 points behind Obama. Given his 3-point deficit in the overall poll, Franken might need a 15-point-plus Obama victory in Minnesota to join the world’s most exclusive club.