Daily Kos poll: Coleman up by 3

A new poll sponsored by the lefty website Daily Kos shows Norm Coleman leading Al Franken 43-40, with Dean Barkley taking 15 percent. Two weeks ago, Franken lead 41-39, with Barkley getting 18 percent.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama leads John McCain in Minnesota 53-38. The 600-person poll was conducted by Research 2000, a nonpartisan outfit, and has a sampling error margin of plus/minus 4 percent.

One of the poll’s interesting facets is a separate early-voting component.

People who say they’ve actually gone to the polls constitute 16 percent of the sample. That makes them certain voters, not likely voters — unless they’re lying — less subject to the whims of polling models that try to predict who will vote. However, margins of sampling error are higher in subgroups than the overall sample.

So anyway: The early tally shows Franken beating Coleman 45-33, to Barkley’s 22. Obama trounces McCain 58-34.

Both the overall and early-voting stats show Franken’s running 12-13 points behind Obama. Given his 3-point deficit in the overall poll, Franken might need a 15-point-plus Obama victory in Minnesota to join the world’s most exclusive club.

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Comments (2)

  1. Submitted by Kurt Waltenbaugh on 10/31/2008 - 08:55 pm.

    David, Now why are you blogging instead of trick-or-treating with the kids?
    Thanks for keeping us “current” with the latest news!
    Kurt & Tracy…

    David replies: For the record, I was the candy hander-outer tonight. Killing time between handouts!

  2. Submitted by Tim Hayes on 10/31/2008 - 09:11 pm.

    Full feed!

    Now if only politicians were this receptive.

    David replies: A weekend experiment, but not an unreasonable request …

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