It’s the end of a long day, and I’m not going to get too deep in the weeds with polling guru Nate Silver’s second analysis of Minnesota’s U.S. Senate recount today. At least it’s shorter.
If Al Franken in fact wins anywhere near 52.5% of the undercounted ballots, it is quite likely that he will prevail, even given what I would consider to be fairly pessimistic assumptions about the number of correctable errors. You could halve my estimate of the number of recounted ballots, for instance (to 5,623) and Franken still projects to prevail around 69% of the time. If, on the other hand, Franken only wins say 51% of the undercount, then the precise number of correctable errors is more important.
I hesitate to say this, but I think the evidence points on balance toward Franken being a slight favorite to win the recount.