FiveThirtyEight.com, the hot election-prediction site this election cycle, has crunched the Minnesota numbers and established Al Franken a very slight favorite in the US. Senate race.
The site’s predictive algorithm, which is based on recent polls, gives Franken a 52 percent chance of victory.
In other words, nearly a coin toss. Minnesota is the only state in the nation without a clear Senate favorite, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver writes.
“In Minnesota, we are no closer to a resolution than we have been all year, with new polls from the Star Tribune and SurveyUSA showing Al Franken and Norm Coleman in the lead, respectively,” Sliver observes. “Minnesota may be the race to watch today, possibly even exceeding the presidential contest.”
According to the site, if Franken wins, Democrats will secure 59 seats for their caucus, assuming Joe Lieberman stays put.