FiveThirtyEight.com: Franken has 52 percent chance of winning

FiveThirtyEight.com, the hot election-prediction site this election cycle, has crunched the Minnesota numbers and established Al Franken a very slight favorite in the US. Senate race.

The site’s predictive algorithm, which is based on recent polls, gives Franken a 52 percent chance of victory.

In other words, nearly a coin toss. Minnesota is the only state in the nation without a clear Senate favorite, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver writes.

“In Minnesota, we are no closer to a resolution than we have been all year, with new polls from the Star Tribune and SurveyUSA showing Al Franken and Norm Coleman in the lead, respectively,” Sliver observes. “Minnesota may be the race to watch today, possibly even exceeding the presidential contest.”

According to the site, if Franken wins, Democrats will secure 59 seats for their caucus, assuming Joe Lieberman stays put.

 

Comments (2)

  1. Submitted by Mike Haubrich on 11/04/2008 - 12:27 pm.

    I am really tense about this one, as well as about the Tinklenberg race. I am surprised that it is so close, and probably wouldn’t be if not for the way that Al Franken has been caricatured this year. He has been mispresented by Democrats and Republicans alike, and the fact that he may pull this one out is a testament to his character.

    I am proud to support Al Franken.

  2. Submitted by David Koski on 11/04/2008 - 05:25 pm.

    I am proud to support Al Franken as well. He will make a great Senator. He is intelligent and his heart is in the right place. And by right I don’t mean…

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