FiveThirtyEight.com, the red-hot election-prediction site that got 49 of 50 states right in the presidential election, says Al Franken’s odds of winning the U.S. Senate recount “may be quite strong — in fact, he may be the prohibitive favorite.”
Polling guru Nate Silver leans on a couple of factors:
1. The percentage of ballots originally uncounted but picked up in a recount; and
2. Franken’s support in groups more likely to have mistakenly uncounted votes.
There are tables and matrices, but Silver says if there are 0.9 percent more votes following a recount, and Franken wins just 51 percent of them, he has a 93.4 percent chance of winning.
There are many more variables, including the ultimate Coleman-Franken recount gap, which as of 7:45 a.m. stands at 221. That figure will change as final county canvasses come in today.
[Update: It’s already shifting, down to 204 as of 9:30 a.m. Monday.]