Franken may be recount’s ‘prohibitive favorite’, the red-hot election-prediction site that got 49 of 50 states right in the presidential election, says Al Franken’s odds of winning the U.S. Senate recount “may be quite strong — in fact, he may be the prohibitive favorite.”

Polling guru Nate Silver leans on a couple of factors:

1. The percentage of ballots originally uncounted but picked up in a recount; and

2. Franken’s support in groups more likely to have mistakenly uncounted votes.

There are tables and matrices, but Silver says if there are 0.9 percent more votes following a recount, and Franken wins just 51 percent of them, he has a 93.4 percent chance of winning.

There are many more variables, including the ultimate Coleman-Franken recount gap, which as of 7:45 a.m. stands at 221. That figure will change as final county canvasses come in today.

[Update: It’s already shifting, down to 204 as of 9:30 a.m. Monday.]

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Comments (2)

  1. Submitted by Spadafora Spadafora on 11/10/2008 - 12:39 pm.

    “2. Franken’s support in groups more likely to have mistakenly uncounted votes.”

    Which most likely means ballots that were not properly completed… right?

    Franken winning the recount sounds like a safe bet to me.

  2. Submitted by Gail O'Hare on 11/10/2008 - 02:02 pm.

    By “not properly completed” you mean errors made by new voters, elderly voters, disabled voters, or – what exactly? people who you think should not have the right to vote?

    If a person makes an X rather than fully filling in the oval, or uses his own pencil rather than the special pen, that person will have cast a clear and unmistakeable vote. The problem is with the machine or with insufficient voter education.
    We need voter education and registration of high school seniors and new citizens. We need people working at the polls who aren’t elderly and exhausted by the inexcusably long day required in our current process.

    I trust that when the recount is completed – before witnesses from both parties – Mr. Ritchie will turn his attention to making changes that will facilitate full and fair enfranchisement, accurately tallied.

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