Boosted by a spate of good polling, Mark Dayton’s chances of becoming governor have topped 80 percent, according to the New York Times’ closely watched poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight.com.
Dayton — who now leads in all four major statewide polls — has been FiveThirtyEight’s favorite since July, but this is his highest general election number. Dayton was pegged as the 83 percent favorite on Aug. 15, but that was based on balmy primary numbers.
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver gives more credence to polls with better historic track records (SurveyUSA and Rasmussen, in our case), which GOP complainers about the Star Tribune and Humphrey Institute/MPR polls should note.
Of course, Nate’s model is only as good as his data, so it can always be a case of garbage-in, garbage-out. And no October poll gets you elected, even if it influences politicos, journalists and donors.
I’m not sure how many folks would take Dayton if they had to give 4:1 odds (fess up in the comments, brave souls). The Times political desk still rates the race a toss-up. So campaign on, everyone.