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PPP: Klobuchar leads Bachmann by 17 in 2012 match-up

OK, we’re 23 months away from Election Day 2012, but Public Policy Polling dropped the other survey shoe this afternoon: U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar heads into her re-election campaign with double-digit leads over Tim Pawlenty, Norm Coleman and Michele Bachmann.

According to the D-leaning PPP, Klobuchar blows the doors off Bachmann, 56 to 39 percent, while beating TPaw by 10 (53-43) and Coleman by 14 (54-40). She’d wipe the floor with 3rd District Congressman Erik Paulsen (52-34) and Tom Emmer (56-38).

Even those margins are less than Klobuchar’s staggering job-performance numbers: 59 percent approve while just 29 percent disapprove. For Republicans, PPP measured favorable/unfavorable opinions: for Bachmann, it’s 37-51 unfavorable. Coleman is at 43-42 favorable, which PPP notes is a big rebound from 2009 numbers. “He appears to have recovered a fair amount from the dip his poll numbers took due to the perception that he was a sore loser. That bodes well if he does make another run for office sometime in the future,” PPP’s Tom Jensen writes.

Paulsen is 22-22 (most have no opinion) and Emmer is at 37/49 unfavorable.

The 949-voter robopoll features 37 percent Dems, 34 percent Republicans and 29 percent independents. Respondents were surveyed Dec. 4-5 and the poll has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Voters who lack land lines were not surveyed.

PPP hasn’t polled the state much until now, but a pre-election survey gave Mark Dayton a 3-point lead compared to the 0.4 percent advantage he now holds. Earlier Tuesday, the firm released results showing 68 percent of Minnesota respondents think Republican gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer should quit the recount.

Other random notes:

– Woman love Klobuchar: her job approval among females is 66 percent; just 20 disapprove. That help explain the gender gap in the Klobuchar-Bachmann match-up: women break 63-32 for the incumbent, while men support the DFLer 49-47.

– Klobuchar’s approval among independents: 62 percent. Bachmann’s favorables, same group: 33 percent.

– Oddly, there’s no favorables on Pawlenty, but 45 percent approve of how U.S. Sen. Al Franken is doing his job while 42 percent disapprove.

Comments (4)

  1. Submitted by Mark Gisleson on 12/07/2010 - 02:33 pm.

    It’s disturbing to see how warmly Minnesotans embrace mediocrity.

  2. Submitted by Mark Heuring on 12/07/2010 - 05:41 pm.

    Meaningless at this point. Much will change in the next year as the parties do battle and position themselves. If A-Klo is up by comparable margins a year from now, that will mean something.

  3. Submitted by Joseph Skar on 12/08/2010 - 04:44 pm.

    At first glance these numbers seem way off, can we see if Larry Jacobs was hired by PPP.

  4. Submitted by Kevin Judd on 12/11/2010 - 02:03 pm.

    I too wonder about the numbers, or wonder what they can possibly mean.

    Bachmann’s numbers are very close to Emmer’s numbers. Given that Emmer almost won the governorship, this should indicate that in a statewide ballot (such as a run for Senator), Bachmann could run a close race.

    I suspect Bachmann will remember that she got her seat when Mark Kennedy decided to run for Senate (winning in the 6th District does not mean winning statewide) and stay put; she clearly has the 6th seat for as long as she wants it.

    David; thoughts on how Emmer put up such a close gubenatorial race with those favorable/unfavorable numbers?

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