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Obama-Romney, Minnesota gay marriage polls: the crosstabs

With a new poll showing the president back in a comfortable lead in Minnesota and the marriage amendment a nail-biter, the details behind the numbers.

On the heels of Sunday’s Star Tribune Minnesota Poll showing a 3-point Barack Obama lead, KSTP released a poll Tuesday showing the president up 7. One place where KSTP agrees with the Strib: the marriage amendment leads by 1.

Because I regularly cover polls, I decided to share a couple of tables I’m keeping on both races. That way, fellow poll-obsessives can peruse the crosstabs along with me.

We’re only looking at October likely voter polls from Public Policy Polling, SurveyUSA (KSTP’s pollster) and the Strib (which uses Mason-Dixon). A St. Cloud State poll showing Obama up 8 didn’t have the right crosstabs, and a Rasmussen Reports poll showing Obama up 5 pay walls its details.

Concentrate on the shaded “margin” lines and you’ll see interesting outliers. The Strib presidential poll — the only one showing the race within the margin of error — is the only one that has Minnesota men backing Romney. (The Strib’s gender gap is yawning — Obama fares 27 points better among women, while it’s roughly 10 in all other polls.)

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You can also see that, generally, more Democrats are voting yes on the marriage amendment than Republicans voting no.

Don’t overlook agreement — Obama’s female support, for example.

An important thing to remember: the sampling error is even higher for subgroups than the overall result in each table’s top box, so only large differences are worth noting.  

Additional notes:

  • Only PPP asked marriage-amendment likely voters if they won’t vote on the issue. That counts as a “no” vote according to the state constitution, so the 1-2 percent won’t-voters are added to no’s when calculating margin.
  • Because Republicans contend pollsters aren’t counting enough Republicans, I’ve included the 2008 exit poll figures in purple on “Sample %” line. Judge for yourselves what’s right.
  • PPP doesn’t call cell phones, making up the difference by overweighting the young. The Star Tribune has 20 percent mobile phones; SurveyUSA has 23 percent in its early-October poll and 26 percent in the new one.
  • The “Johnson” in the presidential polls is the Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson. PPP doesn’t ask about him, but SurveyUSA and the Strib do.

Presidential poll crosstabs:

Presidential poll crosstabs

Marriage amendment poll crosstabs:

Marriage amendment poll crosstabs