It has been a tumultuous 12 months+ in Minnesota and national politics – George Floyd’s death and subsequent unrest, turbulent elections, COVID, an economic downturn and recovery, and lengthy, conflictual budget processes. Right now, we are beset by uncertainties. Let’s sort through them.
The late Donald Rumsfeld’s signal literary achievement was his classification of possibilities. He classified them as “known knowns,” “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns.” Employing these categories helps to define Minnesota’s present political situation.
‘Known knowns’
First, there are the “known knowns.” A list of several important ones:
Derek Chauvin was convicted on the murder of George Floyd and his fellow former officers face court proceedings soon.
Violent crime has increased notably in the Twin Cities metro as parts of the cities try to rebuild from 2021’s riots.
Several police reform provisions have become law, but many pressed by activists did not.
The Nov. 2 Minneapolis city elections will shape future city and state politics and public policy.
The state is awash in cash due to tax collections and federal aid, resulting in a $52 billion state budget with $1 billion in tax cuts and considerable increases in spending for education, health care and transportation.
The COVID epidemic winds down in the state as Minnesota reaches a 70 percent level of one-shot vaccinations, meeting the Biden’s administration’s target.
Legislative district reapportionment remains uncertain, with state legislative action unlikely and court mandate district drawing likely.
In addition to these “known knowns” we have some limited evidence about public opinion in the state. The only recent public poll was released by the conservative Center of the American Experiment. It surveyed 500 registered voters June 2-6 on issues of public safety. Majorities said they visit Minneapolis less frequently, are personally concerned about crime and have a negative view of Gov. Tim Walz’s response to the riots.
From this list, we can already see how uncertain the state’s future looks.
‘Known unknowns’
Then there are the “known unknowns.” They are now unanswerable questions that put a dense fog around forecasting the 2022 elections in the state.
Will the Twin Cities’ crime increase continue through Election Day 2022?
Will police misconduct persist as a major problem and issue through Election Day 2022?
What will be the boundaries of state legislative and congressional districts?
Will the state economy continue a boom through 2022’s Election Day?
Who will be the major candidates for state and federal office in 2022?
Will the state government continue to be awash in funds through Election Day 2022?
What will be the scale and contents of the likely 2022 state bonding bill?
How popular will the Biden administration and Democratic Congress be in 2022 and how will that affect state election results?
‘Unknown unknowns’
Then there are “unknown unknowns” bedeviling prognostications as well. What might suddenly appear on the horizon? A list of state, national and international possibilities:
Events sparking another round of major unrest in the Twin Cities.
The emergence of new candidates and movements on the state’s left and right.
New environmental battles in Minnesota prompted by the threat of climate change.
A reduction in the quality and effectiveness of metro law enforcement.
Arrival of persistent high inflation.
A health reversal for President Joe Biden.
A heating up of the “cold war” with the People’s Republic of China.
International problems and crises instigated by Russia, North Korea or Islamists.
A collapse of the pro-western Afghan government.
New violence between Israel and Hamas.
[image_caption]Steven E. Schier[/image_caption]
For Democrats – crime recedes, metropolitan governance and policing improves, the state and national economy boom, international conditions remain stable and relatively peaceful. Democrats as the “in” party triumph in 2022.
For Republicans – crime remains a serious state and national problem and issue, inflation soars, the state and national economy stagnate, China and rogue regimes roil international affairs. Republicans as the “out” party triumph in 2022.
Which scenario reveals our state and national future? Flip a coin.
Steven E. Schier is Congdon Professor of Political Science Emeritus at Carleton College in Northfield.
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Interesting. Steve Schier is a Republican partisan consultant in addition to his published bona fides. He’ll put a conservative spin on anything anytime the opportunity arises. Though I do give him credit for putting Rumsfeld’s Known Knowns and Unknowns in contemporary perspective. In death Rumsfeld appears to be an almost perfect incompetent party man, undeserving of most if not all his political appointments.
Apparently you see his views as distorted. Could you be more specific?
First, there are the “known knowns.” A list of several important ones:
Derek Chauvin was convicted on the murder of George Floyd and his fellow former officers face court proceedings soon. FACT – the trial of the other three officers is scheduled for March 2022, 8 months from now and approaching two years after George Floyd died in custody.
Violent crime has increased notably in the Twin Cities metro as parts of the cities try to rebuild from 2021’s riots. FACT – the focus of comparison is on cities and particularly on murder. Is there any evidence that violent crime has increased outside the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul? The Twin Cities metro area has just under 3 million residents – 440,000 live in Minneapolis, 311,000 live in St. Paul. The two largest cities account for only 25% of the metro area population.
Several police reform provisions have become law, but many pressed by activists did not. COMMENT – the relevant question is not satisfying the activists, but satisfying those impacted by crime. Talk of defunding the police has been replaced by increasing police presence, including today’s announcement of more staff on Twin Cities transit.
The Nov. 2 Minneapolis city elections will shape future city and state politics and public policy. COMMENT – every election shapes politics and policy. The DFL endorsement process in Minneapolis did not suggest significant change in one direction or the other.
The state is awash in cash due to tax collections and federal aid, resulting in a $52 billion state budget with $1 billion in tax cuts and considerable increases in spending for education, health care and transportation. FACT – the biggest change in federal support is direct financial for children in poverty, which across the country for at least one year could lift one in two poor children out of poverty. Also, millions across the country at risk of eviction and homelessness. The focus is shifting away from additional funds for government as well as tax cuts for business and wealthy households, to lifting poor children out of homelessness, hunger, poor access to quality education and health care, and protecting them from racial and other bigotry.
The COVID epidemic winds down in the state as Minnesota reaches a 70 percent level of one-shot vaccinations, meeting the Biden’s administration’s target. FACT – one-shot vaccinations are a very poor standard, as a single shot provides very poor protection. Two with a booster may soon be the new standard. The reality is that one in three, primarily Republican, are refusing vaccination. Poorly vaccinated populations are more likely to spread variants, which are develop when exposure rates are high. We risk moving from pandemic to endemic disease.
Legislative district reapportionment remains uncertain, with state legislative action unlikely and court mandate district drawing likely. COMMENT: Minnesota should be joining other states in setting up non-partisan commissions to draw political districts. Because we did a great job of counting our people, we saved our 8th congressional district and should avoid the need for full scale redrawing of boundaries.
In addition to these “known knowns” we have some limited evidence about public opinion in the state. The only recent public poll was released by the conservative Center of the American Experiment. It surveyed 500 registered voters June 2-6 on issues of public safety. Majorities said they visit Minneapolis less frequently, are personally concerned about crime and have a negative view of Gov. Tim Walz’s response to the riots.
STRONG OBJECTION. The Center for the American Experiment is funded by out-of-state interests only interested in electing Republicans. They are not a trustworthy source of polling data. Note that they polled registered voters, rather than Minnesota residents. As traditionally Republicans have higher voter registration and are now actively trying to block ballot access (CAE itself is involved in this), they essentially disenfranchised people who are not registered to vote – deciding that their votes don’t matter.
As one looks at each of these statements, they provide no evidence for any claim. The reference to Rumsfeld was interesting as so much of what he considered to be “known knowns” were false, and his bad assumptions had very bad consequences for our country.
Some known knowns didn’t hit the list. 600,000 deaths from the pandemic only stopped by widespread vaccination. Labor shortage that is resulting in employers having to pay more to attract workers (instead the economist’s focus is on inflation). That companies who received lavish bailouts are generously awarding executive compensation, while laying off staff, violating the letter and the spirit of the payroll plan. And of course, January 6, the surge in right wing hate crimes, and the return of mass shooting events.
This article seems to build in a large element of conservative thought presented as political science. Next time let’s have more new insight and less conventional wisdom.
I came to the end of the list and went, “Huh, no mention of January 6th?” I don’t expect the Mr. Schier to join the idiot right in trying to turn that day into something it wasn’t: “just a bunch of tourists on a visit”; “it really was Antifa trashing the building and howling for Pence”; “it was actually a day of patriots acting out of love,” as the chief idiot of the party described it.
But I really didn’t expect a supposed scholar to totally forget that day. Or maybe he didn’t forget. Mr. Schier is likely going with what the sophisticated Republicans like Mitch McConnell are doing. And that is totally ignoring it; hoping January 6 will just go away. The problem with that approach is all that video of people attacking police officers; people scaling walls in tactical gear; people walking off with stuff or vandalizing the Capitol; and people listening to their great leader telling them what to do before the riot started.
Republicans are responsible for a mob attempting to stop the results of a presidential election and a peaceful transition of power. Do they really think people are going to forget that? I think I have more contempt for the ones like Mr. Schier who are trying to ignore that day than the fools trying to turn that day into something it wasn’t. Some of the fools actually believe the lies; Mr. Schier isn’t a fool and he knows damn well that it was an attempted coup, unprecedented in our nation’s history.
“an attempted coup, unprecedented in our nation’s history” in that they forgot to being their firearms.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-trump-supporter-who-stormed-the-capitol-told-book-author-the-rioters-werent-there-to-steal-things-or-do-damage-we-were-just-there-to-overthrow-the-government/ar-AAMf6GU?li=BBnb7Kz
Would seem 1 of your brethren (boots on the ground 1/6/21) would disagree with you!
“We were just there to overthrow the government”
Who says you have to be armed to stage a coup?
In a crowd of Trump supporters, at least some of them had to be strapped. I’ve heard that these courageous patriots will admit that they have to take a gat with them to go grocery shopping.
So is it a known or an unknown, or an unknown known or….. that folks like me look at a lot of the right wing theatrics as sabotage, insurrection, betrayal of America? You know like denial that Covid vaccines are worth while. Kind of like saying those terrorists that plan on killing couple 100K people, not real, no problem, (they are our kind of people) the Covid will just kill them 1 at a time, so all this BS about Vaccine police is nothing more than sabotage on America, there is no difference of opinion, (unless you want to argue the flat earth philosophy) Lets call them political terrorists, willing to allow thousands to die for their own political goals, just like gun laws, let thousands die every year because of gun violence, just to score political points. Lets give them the credit they deserve, saboteurs, traitors, insurrectionists, feel free to chose! If they were black, brown, Asian etc. saying and promoting this crapola, all right wing hell would be breaking loose!