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Where Minneapolis mayoral candidates won their first-choice votes

As of Wednesday morning, we still don’t know who the next mayor of Minneapolis will be. Election night totals (from the Minnesota secretary of state) for first-choice votes had Jacob Frey in first place, with about 25% of votes, trailed by Tom Hoch at around 19 percent and incumbent Mayor Betsy Hodges in third at just over 18% of first-choice votes.

While city elections staffers get to work redistributing second- and third-choice votes on ballots whose first-choice candidates have been eliminated, we took a look at where the first-choice votes for the top candidates in Minneapolis came from, by ward.

First, overall turnout was up over 2013’s showing at 104,297 first-choice votes, compared to 79,174 in the previous mayor’s race. As is often the case, wards in southwest Minneapolis cast the highest number of votes.

Minneapolis mayoral vote by ward
Jacob Frey

First-round vote leader Frey had his best result in the southwestern Ward 13, capturing about 4,000 of the nearly 12,000 total votes cast in the ward. He also had a strong showing in Ward 3, the ward he currently represents on the City Council.

Betsy Hodges

Hodges saw her strongest support across southern Minneapolis, but drew votes from across the city. However, even in her best wards, her vote totals were often lower than Frey’s.

Tom Hoch

Support for Hoch was concentrated principally in Ward 13, though he received fewer votes there than Frey. Hoch also had strong support in the relatively wealthy Ward 7, which covers parts of downtown as well as the Lowry Hill, Bryn-Mawr and Kenwood neighborhoods. He slightly outperformed Frey in that ward.

Raymond Dehn

Support for current state Rep. Raymond Dehn, who finished just behind Hodges on first-choice votes with about 17 percent, was the sort of mirror inverse of Hoch. Votes for Dehn were concentrated in Northeast, Southeast and the eastern part of south Minneapolis.

Nekima Levy-Pounds

Nekima Levy-Pounds finished fifth in overall first-choice votes, winning 15 percent of those votes. Her best ward was Ward 12 in the southeast corner of the city, but all the top-four candidates won more votes in that ward.

Comments (6)

  1. Submitted by Constance Sullivan on 11/08/2017 - 10:59 am.

    Thanks, you guys! It’s always so refreshing to get numbers-based information and without a lot of “interpretation.”

    One note: Somehow, Minneapolis has to get its minority population to vote. At all. I don’t know how we’re going to address the equity/equality issues unless that population starts showing some electoral strength.

    • Submitted by Brian Simon on 11/09/2017 - 10:55 am.

      Offsetting southwest

      To add to your point, by not turning out, some neighborhoods are conceding the vote to southwest. Frey ran up the score in that part of the city; while Hodges (for example) had more consistent city-wide support.

  2. Submitted by Joyce Prudden on 11/08/2017 - 04:32 pm.

    How about percentage?

    Instead of showing the number of votes, what would this look like if the ward’s percentage for each candidate was used? Because some wards have such higher voter turnout, it skews things.

    Really appreciated this data.

    • Submitted by Tom Nehil on 11/08/2017 - 05:18 pm.

      Rough maps

      We considered using percentage of total ward vote, rather than raw vote number, but ultimately decided against it. However, here is what the maps would look like based on percentage of overall ward vote. (Sorry for static images rather than interactive maps — am limited on what I can post in the comments section. Click for larger versions.)

  3. Submitted by Josh Kroll on 11/09/2017 - 12:41 pm.

    SOS breakdown of who won 1st, 2nd and 3rd choice votes

  4. Submitted by Kathie Noga on 11/09/2017 - 08:08 pm.

    First choice votes

    Raymond Dehn did the best on second and third choice votes and it made him go from 4th to 2nd. People who voted for the most progressive candidates tended to vote for him, so he gained a whole lot of votes this way. For someone who did not take PAC money or corporate money, he did very well. So your graphs do not reflect these facts. In fact if the Republican front organization had not been in the race, he may have been the top vote getter.

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