Bachmann, Paulsen increasingly likely to hold their seats, D.C. analyst says

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Reps. Michele Bachmann and Erik Paulsen are increasingly likely to hold on to their seats this November thanks to an increasingly pro-Republican national climate, according to an analysis of House races released today by the Cook Political Report.

Cook is one of the big three Washington election forecasters, alongside CQ Politics and the Rothenberg Political Report. Cook updated their ratings on 25 races — every one of which benefited Republicans.

Bachmann is now rated as “Likely” to hold her seat, an upgrade in safety from “Lean”. Paulsen was moved to “Solid” from “Likely”.

Jim Oberstar, Collin Peterson, Keith Ellison, Betty McCollum and John Kline are all rated as “Solid” or “Safe” (they mean the same thing) by every major rating firm. Democratic Rep. Tim Walz is the only other Minnesotan in what is viewed as a competitive race — he, like Bachmann is rated “Likely” to hold his seat, a rating that Cook left unchanged.

Interesting little nugget that bears mention: Cook’s House analyst, David Wasserman, wrote that Bachmann would have lost to either of her 2010 challengers, Tarryl Clark and Maureen Reed, had they been running in 2008.

Note: An earlier version of this post had David Wasserman’s first name incorrectly listed as Donald. Sorry about the error, it has now been corrected. -DW

Comments (3)

  1. Submitted by David Wasserman on 02/19/2010 - 08:58 am.

    Thanks for the shoutout, but my name is David, not Donald

    David Wasserman
    House Editor, Cook Report

  2. Submitted by Bernice Vetsch on 02/19/2010 - 04:45 pm.

    I hope Maureen Reed will join Tarryl Clark in promising to drop out of the race if she does not get the DFL nomination.

    Either would make an excellent representative, but if both are on the ballot — with votes being split — returning Bachmann to office is way too likely. And I want it to be extremely, extremely unlikely for Bachmann to win.

  3. Submitted by Howard Miller on 02/20/2010 - 03:56 pm.

    Well, let’s hold the election anyway, say?

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