Analyst: MN could break record for most female congressional candidates

WASHINGTON — A smart catch once again from University of Minnesota professor Eric Ostermeier over at Smart Politics.

Minnesota could have as many as eight women running for Congress in the November election, which would be an all-time record. Given that some primaries have drawn only female candidates, the minimum we’ll have (barring death or an unexpected dropout) will be five, an increase from just three last year. The record is six, set in 2006.

Writes Ostermeier:

At a rally for U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann Wednesday afternoon, Sarah Palin spoke of “pink elephants” who will take back Washington, D.C. in 2010 – referring to female Republican Congressional candidates like Bachmann.

Whether or not there is a rise in the number of Republican women elected to Congress this November remains to be seen. However, the state of Minnesota might set a state record for the largest number of female U.S. House candidates on the ballot.

A Smart Politics analysis of over 550 U.S. House contests dating back to statehood finds Minnesota is poised to have up to eight female Congressional candidates on the ballot in 2010 – more than any year in state history.

His five locks are:

  1. Rep. Betty McCollum, D incumbent in the 4th;
  2. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R incumbent in the 6th (the prohibitive favorite, though she’s facing another primary challenge from Aubrey Immelman);
  3. Either Tarryl Clark or Maureen Reed, D challengers in the 6th;
  4. Lynn Torgerson, independent challenger in the 5th;
  5. Barb Davis White, independent challenger in the 5th (she’s also seeking the Independence Party’s endorsement, though she’s competing with Thomas Schrunk for that).

The three maybes are:

  1. Maureen Hackett, D challenger (competing with Jim Meffert) in the 3rd;
  2. Shelley Madore, D challenger (competing with Dan Powers) in the 2nd;
  3. Either Karen Nelson or Melva Larson, R challengers (competing with Glen Menze and Lee Byberg) in the 7th.

Ostermeier’s historical charts are worth the click alone, though his entire analysis can (and should) be read by clicking on this link.

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Comments (1)

  1. Submitted by Aubrey Immelman on 04/16/2010 - 11:05 pm.

    UPDATE RE: “Rep. Michele Bachmann, R incumbent in the 6th (the prohibitive favorite, though she’s facing another primary challenge from Aubrey Immelman)”

    The Republican Party has veered too hard-right and the rhetoric of its standard-bearers has become too extremist and conspiracy-driven for me to support it in good conscience at the present time.

    I have therefore decided to throw my weight behind the Independence Party of Minnesota this election cycle.

    I will address the IPM 6th District Convention on Saturday morning, April 17 to ask for its endorsement, failing which I will seek ballot access as an unaffiliated independent to campaign against Bachmann.

    More information at links below:

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