Analyst: GOP could retake the House without flipping any MN seats

WASHINGTON — With 60 days left until Election Day, Larry Sabato has become the first major national analyst to say that Republicans are favored to take over the House, though he forsees them doing it without any help from Minnesota.

Sabato’s forecast sees the GOP picking up a net of 47 seats in the House, above the 39 they’d need to take to regain control. In the Senate, Sabato sees a gain of eight or nine seats, which would return Democrats to the majority by the slimmest of margins.

The House takeover could be accomplished without any Minnesota seat flipping. Sabato sees just two seats here in play — the 1st District currently held by Democrat Tim Walz and the 6th, which is held by Republican Michele Bachmann. In both of those the incumbent is “favored.”

On the gubernatorial side, Sabato calls Minnesota’s race a “toss-up,” though there should be an asterisk there because last time that race was analyzed was before the DFL primary.

Sabato, for those unfamiliar with him, is a political science professor at the University of Virginia. Think their version of Larry Jacobs, and you’re not far off. His full race ratings, in great detail, can be found here.

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Comments (1)

  1. Submitted by Brian Simon on 09/02/2010 - 10:59 am.

    As an amateur political observer, this has been the hardest factor to square: that our local political climate is relatively stable & no House seats are likely to change hands, while there’s talk of this national GOP surge. Over at WaPost they have some maps that show the bulk of the seats up for grabs being along the I-70 corridor, through PA, OH & points west. Many of those states are suffering from significant job losses in manufacturing & have economies far worse off than here in MN. Take those factors together & its not such a stretch to see why voters want to punish the party in power (though I personally think that blame is misplaced).

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