Minnesota campaigners say the economy — not health care — will be the big election issue

WASHINGTON — If the Affordable Care Act is the most significant legislative accomplishment of President Obama’s first term, neither Republicans nor Democrats are leaping at the chance to make it a centerpiece of this year’s elections.

Health care was at the forefront of political candidates’ minds last week, given Thursday’s Supreme Court announcement and a Saturday fundraising deadline that spawned countless health care-inspired email blasts.

But beyond opening the purse strings of supporters (and open them it did, to the tune of $4.6 million for Republican Mitt Romney and $2.3 million for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee), health care reform, Minnesota campaigners say, isn’t likely to play a starring role between now and November.

To be sure, opinion polls still show the law, overall, as largely unpopular with the electorate, and one that riles the passions of conservative voters. When Republicans force a repeal vote in the U.S. House next week, Democrats who vote against it, especially vulnerable ones, are likely to hear about it from their opponents.

But Republican and Democratic operatives in Minnesota agree that on Nov. 6, voters will have one thing on their mind: the economy.            

“I think we all knew that this was going to dominate things for a couple of weeks or so,” said Mike Osskopp, manager of Kurt Bills’ U.S. Senate campaign. “Everybody and their dog tried to fundraise off of it, on both sides … But now we’re back to the original point, which is: Our economic is going off the cliff.”

A rallying cry

Republican congressional and presidential candidates have used the Affordable Care Act as their most rousing rallying cry in primary and endorsement contests, where opposing “Obamacare” is less a conservative litmus test and more a formal job requirement.

But as primaries end and campaigns turn toward winning over independent voters, the focus shifts from rallying a base to winning hearts and minds.

Right now, that means hammering away on the economy. In a Friday Gallup poll, 31 percent of voters said the economy is the biggest issue facing the country today; only 6 percent of voters said it was health care (down from its peak, 26 percent, in 2009).

Osskopp said Bills’ message is going to center on that theme, that Bills is a high school economics teacher looking to unseat Democratic U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, running with the goal of restoring fiscal sanity to Washington.

The campaign will focus on jobs and federal spending, and to the extent the Affordable Care Act fits into that, they’ll make it an issue. The same goes for Klobuchar’s support for the bailout and stimulus bills back in 2008 and 2009.

But Osskopp said not to expect any one of those issues to be a centerpiece of the campaign.

“Our campaign is built around the fact that since Amy Klobuchar went to Washington, the debt has doubled and unemployment has doubled and Amy Klobuchar has no plan to fix any of them,” he said. “Obamacare is part of that narrative, it’s just not the main part of the narrative.”

Ben Golnik, a Minnesota GOP consultant advising two congressional candidates, said health care is just one cog in an overall argument candidates can make against an incumbent, especially if Republicans begin pitching the ACA’s individual mandate as a tax increase.

“I think that will be part of that narrative that Washington politicians aren’t really listening to people,” he said. “You’ve got to create a compelling case to defeat the incumbent … and this could be a reason why you should fire an incumbent.”

In the case of one of Golnik’s candidates — Mike Parry, in the 1st Congressional District — that means drawing attention to the incumbent’s support for the law. In both a press release and a fundraising pitch last week, Parry hit his potential fall opponent Rep. Tim Walz for calling the Affordable Care Act “the fiscally responsible thing to do.”

“I think [health care reform will] be hung like a millstone around candidates who are in swing districts or split districts,” Golnik said.

Outside groups moving away as well

Golnik said there is one group that could look to keep the Affordable Care Act alive and in the heads of voters — outside political action committees looking to spend on competitive races nationwide. But there’s no guarantee they’ll stick with the issue.

One such group, the conservative Concerned Women For America, purchased $6 million worth of ad time in six states, including Minnesota, in June to run an ACA-focused ad. A spokeswoman for the group said the ad was timed to preview the Supreme Court ruling and remind voters about the issue at hand.

But the group’s future spots are likely to focus on a range of issues, such as the economy, unemployment or gas prices, spokeswoman Alice Stewart said, not just health care reform.

“The economy and jobs are at the forefront in many people’s minds,” she said. “Part of that economic equation is the high cost of Obamacare.”

Meanwhile, the National Republican Congressional Committee kicked off the week by sending out Monday press releases pummeling Democrats over poor manufacturing numbers, breaking from what has been a nearly singular focus on health care in recent weeks.

Asked about a messaging strategy, NRCC spokeswoman Katie Prill sounded a familiar tone — health care will be an issue, but not the issue, come November.

“Americans have been burdened by a new massive tax increase, along with more government mandates and regulations that will hinder job creation in Minnesota,” she said in a statement. “Anyone who will run on a platform of more taxes, less jobs, higher prices and less personal freedom will have a lot of explaining to do to the hardworking families of Minnesota.”

Democrats say ruling defuses GOP talking point

Meanwhile, Democrats say the health care law’s success at the Supreme Court is a populist victory for the country, and a boon to President Obama’s re-election campaign.

At the very least, DFL Party Chairman Ken Martin said, the Supreme Court’s ruling in favor of the health care law defuses a potential Republican talking point that Obama has been an ineffective president — with the caveat that, indeed, health care isn’t going to be a make-or-break issue for November.

 “The Republicans are trying to paint a caricature that President Obama just couldn’t get anything down in Washington,” he said. “Health care is not the paramount issue in this election by any stretch of the imagination. … [But] I think this does take a quiver out of their bow and arrow, so to speak.”

Within hours of the Supreme Court’s ruling last week, the Obama campaign had put out a fact sheet highlighting the law’s impact on Minnesotans. The campaign’s Minnesota spokeswoman noted that several of the law’s biggest components (such as a ban on coverage denials based on pre-existing conditions, allowing those under 26-years-old to stay on their parent’s health care plan, etc.) remain incredibly popular. 

“It’s kind of easy to demonize the idea of legislation, but when you talk about what’s in practice and the benefits that millions of Minnesotans are already seeing, that’s really popular,” said Kristin Sosanie, Minnesota spokeswoman for the Obama for America campaign. “It’s definitely something that we’re going to talk about … It’s a huge accomplishment for the president and it’s helping millions of Minnesota already.”

But Sosanie acknowledged what Martin and others before her have said: The presidential race will be won or lost on the economy alone.

With that in mind, campaigns and politicians are already looking behind health care, eyeing a fresh round of unemployment numbers set for a Friday release. That could signal the abrupt end of Obamacare’s run as a leading campaign issue, Osskopp said.

“By Friday, it’s all going to go away.”

Devin Henry can be reached at dhenry@minnpost.com. Follow him on Twitter: @dhenry