MinnPost poll shows Klobuchar leading White by 11 percentage points in U.S. Senate race

United States Senate

WASHINGTON — U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar has a wide lead over GOP opponent Royce White in a new MinnPost-Embold Research poll.

That poll determined Klobuchar, a Democrat, leads by 11 percentage points among likely voters (52-41) in a race that was not expected to be competitive.

When she was first elected in 2006, Klobuchar, a Democrat, became Minnesota’s first female senator. The last time she ran for reelection, in 2018, Klobuchar defeated her Republican opponent, Jim Newberger, by a 24-point margin.

Before she was elected to the Senate, Klobuchar served as Hennepin County attorney and developed a “tough on crime” reputation.

Meanwhile, White is a former NBA player who has never before held public office and has sparked several controversies. A litany of legal problems in White’s background were uncovered during his failed run for Congress in 2022, including failure to pay rent and child support.

That was followed by reports that White spent tens of thousands of dollars in campaign funds for what appears to be personal use, including tabs at a strip club (which White claims to have reimbursed and maintains was an accounting error), posh hotel bills in a number of states, limousine services and unexplained cash withdrawals.

Nevertheless, the MinnPost-Embold Research poll showed White had the support of 89% of the respondents who identified as Republicans and no support among Democrats. Klobuchar, meanwhile, had the support of 97% of the respondents who identified as Democrats as well as 5% of those who identified as Republicans.

“The real narrative is how nationalized our politics are,” University of Minnesota political science professor Tim Lindberg said. He said that even though White is “a deeply unpopular and problematic candidate,” he had support nearly entirely from GOP likely voters while most of Klobuchar’s support came from Democratic likely voters.

“It is still going to be partisan in the end,” Lindberg said of November’s election. 

Those who said they were independent and belonged to neither party were fairly evenly split, with 37% supporting Klobuchar and 36% supporting White.

As a third-term senator who leans centrist and is well known in Minnesota, Lindberg said Klobuchar is “a barometer” for other Democratic candidates.

So strong support for Klobuchar is likely to bode well for other Democrats who are on the ballot in Minnesota in November, Lindberg said.

“If she’s easily winning, then other Democrats are doing well,” he said.

The poll surveyed 1,616 likely voters in Minnesota Sept. 4-8 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Senators have positive favorability

The MinnPost-Embold Research poll also found that Klobuchar and fellow Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, who is not up for reelection this year, have positive favorability ratings among likely Minnesota voters.

Forty-five percent of the respondents gave Klobuchar a favorable rating while 38% gave her an unfavorable rating, for a net 7% favorable rating.

Smith, meanwhile, received a 33% favorable rating and a 29% unfavorable rating, for a net 4% favorable rating.

But many more respondents (19%) said they had never heard of Smith while only 4% said they had never heard of Klobuchar, who briefly entered the 2020 presidential election before dropping out and endorsing Joe Biden.

Smith served as lieutenant governor under former Gov. Mark Dayton, who chose her to serve out former Sen. Al Franken’s term when Franken resigned from the U.S. Senate in 2018 amid allegations of sexual misconduct.

Smith defeated Republican Jason Lewis in 2020 to win her first full six-year Senate term.