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A cooler summer?

Forgive us for celebrating, but according to the National Weather Service our June is running nearly 7 degrees cooler than average, to date. We don’t normally get this excited about 80 degrees, but this month it’s turning into a pretty big deal.

Yes, Sunday was truly extraordinary, summer the way we knew it could be here in the Land of 10,000 Weather Insults. Temperatures peaked in the mid 80s, a few chubby cumulus clouds strewn amidst cirrus blow-off from tall thunderheads poking up across the Dakotas. You may witness a few colleagues/friends/strangers sporting new sunburns today. A bubble of high pressure over the Great Lakes will turn our winds around to the southeast today, moisture creeping ever-eastward, fueling a shower/T-shower risk over southwestern Minnesota by late afternoon and evening. It should stay dry over the northeastern 2/3rds of Minnesota today, with enough dim sun for highs topping 80 in many towns, close to where we should be in the temperature department.

Tomorrow looks wet, with a much better chance of showers and T-storms statewide. There’s a potential for a pretty good soaking, with some .25 to .50+” rainfall amounts. In fact Tuesday may very well wind up being the wettest day of the entire week. Considering that much of central and southern Minnesota is still too dry, and rain is scheduled for a weekday, we won’t complain too much, ok? Just remind that whiny friend or office pest “hey, we need the rain.” A damp start Wednesday should give way to some sun by midday and afternoon, but the next slow-moving trough of low pressure may spread more showery rains into town late Thursday and Friday.

The weekend forecast is tricky, especially Saturday. A persistent swirl of low pressure temporarily stuck over the Great Lakes may soak much of Wisconsin with a cool rain Saturday, and eastern counties of Minnesota may be close enough to this lingering storm for considerable cloudiness, the chance of showers increasing rapidly as you head east of the St. Croix. Sunday appears to be the safer, sunnier, milder day statewide as high pressure builds overhead, a dome of sinking, drying, warming air over Minnesota. So Saturday looks iffy, especially east of Mille Lacs and Twin Cities area lakes, although it should be fairly nice from St. Cloud on north to Gull Lake and the Whitefish Chain. My (strong) hunch is that Sunday will be the more popular outdoor day of next weekend.

 

Here is the latest CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Outlook for the entire summer season, June, July and August. There’s a better than 50/50 chance that the Dakotas and Minnesota will wind up cooler than average, with significantly hotter weather predicted for much of the west, far south and eastern seaboard. The extended (way-out-on-a-limb) forecast is based on trends in the Pacific Ocean, as well as blocks and “oscillations” setting up over the Northern Hemisphere, that all seem to point to an unusual amount of Canadian air emptying southward into the Upper Midwest the next couple of months. Is this proof that global warming is hogwash? No. This is still “weather”, not “climate”. Even if the forecast verifies (comes true) for Minnesota, it doesn’t say anything about what’s happening globally. We rely on a constellation of satellites and ground-based climate observations worldwide to help us get a global snapshot over time. We can’t use a cool day, or even a cool summer, to disprove climate change any more than a resident of Phoenix or Washington D.C. can use a string of 90 or 100 degree days to “prove” that climate change is, in fact, a reality. It’s tempting to look out the window and – assume – that the entire planet is feeling the chill (or the heat) but reality is a bit more complicated. Even meteorologists, who study day-to-day changes in weather patterns have a difficult time gauging what’s happening worldwide over a span of months, years and decades. That’s why we rely on climate scientists to give us insight into the big picture, and a majority of those scientists continue to believe that the (global) temperature trend is ever-upward. For more stories about climate change check out my ClimateSpot blog, which I try to update daily with new stories. It’s a big puzzle, and no one weather event, storm, heatwave or cool front proves anything. Stepping back and trying to take in the big picture is challenging and time-consuming, but there is ample evidence for anyone truly taking the time to look. I HOPE global warming and subsequent climate change winds up being disproven; I hope another theory rises to the surface to explain the worldwide warming trend we’re witnessing from the artic regions and Greenland southward to Antarctica, something else that accounts for shrinking glaciers, rising water levels and some of the truly baffling weather we’re seeing in both hemispheres. There’s plenty of incentive for a hot-shot Phd to find that smoking gun and convince other climatologists there’s a better explanation for what we see all around us. I’m keeping an open mind – I hope you will too.


WRF/NAM outlook for 7 pm this evening, showing regions of higher relative humidity (blue equates roughly with 70% RH) entering southwestern Minnesota. The best chance of late-day showers and embedded T-storms should remain southwest of the MN River Valley later today.

Rainfall (in inches) from June 7-13. Note that much of the northern half of Minnesota received less than .50″ of rain (most lawns/fields/gardens require about 1″ of water every week for sustained, healthy growth of flowers and crops in June). Southern Minnesota is in slightly better shape: 1.5 to 2″ of rain fell there last week.

For the latest weekly rainfall estimates for the USA from the High Plains Regional Climate Center click here.

Weather Headlines

* Today: not as sunny as yesterday, still warm with highs topping 80.

* Best chance of showers/T-storms: south & west of the Minnesota River Valley.

* Tuesday looks wet statewide with a good chance of showers/storms.

* Break in the showery pattern Wednesday midday into Thursday afternoon.

* Next chance of organized showers comes late Thursday into Friday.

* Saturday rain may linger over Wisconsin, clouds and showers can’t be ruled out over far eastern Minnesota.

* Sunday appears to be the sunnier, warmer, drier day of the weekend, statewide.

* Long-range guidance: highs mostly in the 80s the last full week of June. No more cold fronts in sight.

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Comments (3)

  1. Submitted by david granneman on 06/15/2009 - 10:12 am.

    hello all
    good news – it looks like we don’t need to worry about global warming anymore.

    http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/little-ice-age-ii-sequel
    Little Ice Age II, The Sequel?
    Submitted by Doug L. Hoffman on Tue, 06/09/2009 – 16:38

    The lingering cool temperatures being experience by much of North America has weather forecasters wondering it we are entering a new Little Ice Age—a reference to the prolonged period of cold weather that afflicted the world for centuries and didn’t end until just prior to the American Civil War. From historical records, scientists have found a strong correlation between low sunspot activity and a cooling climate. At the end of May, an international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA released a new prediction for the next solar cycle: Solar Cycle 24 will be one of the weakest in recent memory. Are we about to start a new Little Ice Age?

  2. Submitted by david granneman on 06/15/2009 - 02:28 pm.

    paul said

    “That’s why we rely on climate scientists to give us insight into the big picture, and a majority of those scientists continue to believe that the (global) temperature trend is ever-upward.

    http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=2674e64f-802a-23ad-490b-bd9faf4dcdb7

    U.S. Senate Minority Report Update: More Than 650 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims
    December 11, 2008

    Posted by Marc Morano – 9:30 AM EST – Marc_Morano@EPW.Senate.GOV

    U. S. Senate Minority Report:

    More Than 650 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims

    Scientists Continue to Debunk “Consensus” in 2008

    INTRODUCTION:
    Over 650 dissenting scientists from around the globe challenged man-made global warming claims made by the United Nations Intergovernemntal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former Vice President Al Gore. This new 231-page U.S. Senate Minority Report report — updated from 2007’s groundbreaking report of over 400 scientists who voiced skepticism about the so-called global warming “consensus” — features the skeptical voices of over 650 prominent international scientists, including many current and former UN IPCC scientists, who have now turned against the UN IPCC. This updated report includes an additional 250 (and growing) scientists and climate researchers since the initial release in December 2007. The over 650 dissenting scientists are more than 12 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers.

    The chorus of skeptical scientific voices grow louder in 2008 as a steady stream of peer-reviewed studies, analyses, real world data and inconvenient developments challenged the UN and former Vice President Al Gore’s claims that the “science is settled” and there is a “consensus.” On a range of issues, 2008 proved to be challenging for the promoters of man-made climate fears. Promoters of anthropogenic warming fears endured the following: Global temperatures failing to warm; Peer-reviwed studies predicting a continued lack of warming; a failed attempt to revive the discredited “Hockey Stick”; inconvenient developments and studies regarding CO2; the Sun; Clouds; Antarctica; the Arctic; Greenland; Mount Kilimanjaro; Hurricanes; Extreme Storms; Floods; Ocean Acidification; Polar Bears; lack of atmosphieric dust; the failure of oceans to warm and rise as predicted.

    In addition, the following developments further secured 2008 as the year the “consensus” collapsed. Russian scientists “rejected the very idea that carbon dioxide may be responsible for global warming”. An American Physical Society editor conceded that a “considerable presence” of scientific skeptics exist. An International team of scientists countered the UN IPCC, declaring: “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate”. India Issued a report challenging global warming fears. International Scientists demanded the UN IPCC “be called to account and cease its deceptive practices,” and a canvass of more than 51,000 Canadian scientists revealed 68% disagree that global warming science is “settled.”

    This new report issued by the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee’s office of the GOP Ranking Member is the latest evidence of the growing groundswell of scientific opposition challenging significant aspects of the claims of the UN IPCC and Al Gore. Scientific meetings are now being dominated by a growing number of skeptical scientists. The prestigious International Geological Congress, dubbed the geologists’ equivalent of the Olympic Games, was held in Norway in August 2008 and prominently featured the voices of scientists skeptical of man-made global warming fears. [See Full report Here: & see: Skeptical scientists overwhelm conference: ‘2/3 of presenters and question-askers were hostile to, even dismissive of, the UN IPCC’ ]

    Even the mainstream media has begun to take notice of the expanding number of scientists serving as “consensus busters.” A November 25, 2008 article in Politico noted that a “growing accumulation” of science is challenging warming fears, and added that the “science behind global warming may still be too shaky to warrant cap-and-trade legislation.” Canada’s Financial Post noted on October 20, 2008, that “the number of climate change skeptics is growing rapidly.” New York Times environmental reporter Andrew Revkin noted on March 6, 2008, “As we all know, climate science is not a numbers game (there are heaps of signed statements by folks with advanced degrees on all sides of this issue),” Revkin wrote. (LINK) In 2007, Washington Post Staff Writer Juliet Eilperin conceded the obvious, writing that climate skeptics “appear to be expanding rather than shrinking.”

  3. Submitted by david granneman on 06/15/2009 - 05:29 pm.

    http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=64734

    HEAT OF THE MOMENT
    31,000 scientists reject ‘global warming’ agenda ‘Mr. Gore’s movie has claims no informed expert endorses’

    Posted: May 19, 2008
    8:51 pm Eastern

    More than 31,000 scientists across the U.S. – including more than 9,000 Ph.D.s in fields such as atmospheric science, climatology, Earth science, environment and dozens of other specialties – have signed a petition rejecting “global warming,” the assumption that the human production of greenhouse gases is damaging Earth’s climate.

    “There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate,” the petition states. “Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.”

    The Petition Project actually was launched nearly 10 years ago, when the first few thousand signatures were assembled. Then, between 1999 and 2007, the list of signatures grew gradually without any special effort or campaign.

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